Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

The Climate-Conflict Nexus: Pathways, Regional Links, and Case Studies

  • Chapter
  • First Online:
Handbook on Sustainability Transition and Sustainable Peace

Part of the book series: Hexagon Series on Human and Environmental Security and Peace ((HSHES,volume 10))

Abstract

The role of climate change as a potential cause of violent conflict has been debated in the scholarly and policy communities for several years. We review the most recent quantitative and qualitative literature and find that research on the issue has produced little consensual findings so far. Further, we discuss major theoretical, conceptual and empirical issues and describe possible pathways linking climate change to violent conflict. To illustrate these issues, we analyse the climate-conflict nexus in different world regions and present three qualitative case studies in north-western Kenya, the Nile Basin, and Israel/Palestine. We find that possible reasons for the lack of scientific consensus may be the difficulties of existing approaches to adequately capture the complex links between climate change, vulnerability, and violent conflict.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Log in via an institution
Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 169.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 219.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 219.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  • Adano, Wario; Dietz, Ton; Witsenburg, Karen M.; Zaal, Fred, 2012: “Climate change, violent conflict and local institutions in Kenya’s dryland”, in: Journal of Peace Research, 49,1: 65–80.

    Google Scholar 

  • Adger, W. Neil, 2006: “Vulnerability”, in: Global Environmental Change, 16,3: 268–281.

    Google Scholar 

  • Adger, W. Neil; Dessai, Suraje; Goulden, Marisa; Hulme, Mike; Lorenzoni, Irene; Nelson, Donald R.; Naess, Lars Otto; Wolf, Johanna; Wreford, Anita, 2009: “Are there social limits to adaptation to climate change?”, in: Climatic Change, 93,3–4: 335–354.

    Google Scholar 

  • Agrawala, Shardul; Moehner, Annett; El Raey, Mohamed; Conway, Declan; van Aalst, Maarten; Hagenstad, Marca; Smith, Joel, 2004: Development and climate change in Egypt: focus on coastal resources and the Nile (Paris: OECD).

    Google Scholar 

  • Al Masry; Al Youm, 2010: “Kenya signs Nile basin deal, rules out discussion with Mubarak”; at: <http://www.masress.com/en/almasryalyoumen/42678> (29 November 2014).

  • Amery, Hussein, 2002: “Water wars in the Middle East: a looming threat”, in: The Geographical Journal, 168,4: 313–323.

    Google Scholar 

  • Anderson, Craig, 2001: “Heat and violence”, in: Current Directions in Psychological Science, 10,1: 33–38.

    Google Scholar 

  • Anderson, Craig; DeLisi, Matt, 2011: “Implications of global climate change for violence developed and developing countries”, in: Forgas, Joseph; Kruglanski, Arie; Williams, Kipling (Eds.): The Psychology of Social Conflict and Aggression (New York: Psychology Press): 249–265.

    Google Scholar 

  • Barnett, Jon; Adger, W. Neil, 2007: “Climate change, human security and violent conflict”, in: Political Geography, 26,6: 639–655.

    Google Scholar 

  • Baron, Robert A., 1990: “Conflict in organizations”, in: Murphy, Kevin R.; Saal, Frank E. (Eds.): Psychology in organizations: integrating science and practice (Hillsdale: Lawrence Erlbaum): 197–216.

    Google Scholar 

  • Benjaminsen, Tor A., 2008: “Does supply-induced scarcity drive violent conflicts in the African Sahel? The case of the Tuareg rebellion in northern Mali”, in: Journal of Peace Research, 45,6: 819–836.

    Google Scholar 

  • Benjaminsen, Tor A.; Ba, Boubacar, 2009: “Farmer–herder conflicts, pastoral marginalisation and corruption: a case study from the inland Niger delta of Mali”, in: Geographical Journal, 175,1: 71–81.

    Google Scholar 

  • Benjaminsen, Tor; Alinon, Koffi; Buhaug, Halvard; Buseth, Jill Tove, 2012: “Does climate change drive land-use conflict in the Sahel?”, in: Journal of Peace Research, 49,1: 97–111.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bergholt, Drago; Lujala, Paivi, 2012: “Climate-related natural disasters, economic growth, and armed civil conflict”, in: Journal of Peace Research, 49,1: 147–162.

    Google Scholar 

  • Berrebi, Claude; Ostwald, Jordan, 2011: “Earthquakes, hurricanes, and terrorism: do natural disasters incite terror?”,in: Public Choice, 149,3: 383–403.

    Google Scholar 

  • Besley, Timothy; Persson, Torsten, 2011: “The logic of political violence”, in: The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 126,3: 1411–1445.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bhavnani, Rakhi, 2006: “Natural disasters conflicts”; at: <http://rakhibhavnani.ca/bhavnanisummary.pdf> (30 October 2011).

  • Biermann, Frank; Petschel-Held, Gerhard; Rohloff, Christian 1998: “Umweltzerstörung als Konfliktursache? Theoretische Konzeptionalisierung und empirische Analyse des Zusammenhangs von ‘Umwelt’ und ‘Sicherheit’”, in: Zeitschrift für Internationale Beziehungen, 5,2: 273–308.

    Google Scholar 

  • Black, Richard; Bennett, Stephen; Thomas, Sandy M.; Beddington, John R., 2011: “Migration as adaptation”, in: Nature, 478,7370: 447–449.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bohlken, Anjali Thomas; Sergenti, Ernest John, 2010: “Economic growth and ethnic violence: an empirical investigation of Hindu–Muslim riots in India”, in: Journal of Peace Research, 47,5: 589–600.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bonacker, Thorsten; Imbusch, Peter, 2010: “Zentrale Begriffe der Friedens- und Konfliktforschung: Konflikt, Gewalt, Krieg, Frieden”, in: Imbusch, Peter; Zoll, Ralf (Eds.): Friedens- und Konfliktforschung: eine Einführung (Wiesbaden: VS Springer): 67–142.

    Google Scholar 

  • Brauch, Hans Günter; Scheffran, Jürgen, 2012: “Introduction: climate change, human security, and violent conflict in the Anthropocene”, in: Scheffran, Jürgen; Brzoska, Michael; Brauch, Hans Günter; Link, Peter Michael; Schilling, Janpeter (Eds.): Climate change, human security and violent conflict: challenges for societal stability (Berlin—Heidelberg: Springer): 3–40.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bretthauer, Judith M., 2015: “Conditions for peace and conflict: applying a fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis to cases of resource scarcity”, in: Journal of Conflict Resolution, 59,4: 593–616.

    Google Scholar 

  • Brown, Ian A., 2010: “Assessing eco-scarcity as a cause of the outbreak of conflict in Darfur: a remote sensing approach”, in: International Journal of Remote Sensing, 31,10: 2513–2520.

    Google Scholar 

  • Brown, Oli; Crawford, Alec, 2009: Rising temperatures, rising tensions: climate change and the risk of violent conflict in the Middle East. (Winnipeg: International Institute for Sustainable Development).

    Google Scholar 

  • Brückner, Markus; Ciccone, Antonio 2010: “International commodity prices, growth, and the outbreak of civil war in sub-Saharan Africa”, in: The Economic Journal, 120, 5: 519–534.

    Google Scholar 

  • Buhaug, Halvard, 2010: “Climate not to blame for African civil wars”, in: PNAS, 107,38: 16477–16482.

    Google Scholar 

  • Buhaug, Halvard; Nordkvelle, Jonas; Bernauer, Thomas Bernauer; Böhmelt, Tobias; Brzoska, Michael; Busby, Joshua W.; Ciccone, Antonio; Fjelde, Hanne; Gartzke, Erik; Gleditsch, Nils Petter; Goldtsone, Jack A.; Hegre, Håvard; Holtermann, Helge; Koubi, Vally; Link, P. Michael; Link, Jasmin S. A.; Lujala, Päivi; O’Loughlin, John; Raleigh, Clionadh; Scheffran, Jürgen; Schilling, Janpeter; Smith, Todd G.; Theisen, Ole Magnus; Tol, Richard S. J.; Urdal, Henrik; von Uexkull, Nina, 2014: “One effect to rule them all? A comment on climate and conflict”, in: Climatic Change, 127,3–4: 391–397.

    Google Scholar 

  • Buhaug, Halvard; Theisen, Ole Magnus, 2012: “On environmental change and armed conflict”, in: Scheffran, Jürgen; Brzoska, Michael; Brauch, Hans Günter; Link, Peter Michael; Schilling, Janpeter (Eds.): Climate Change, Human Security and Violent Conflict: Challenges for Societal Stability (Berlin: Springer): 43–55.

    Google Scholar 

  • Burke, Marshall B.; Miguel, Edward; Satyanath, Shanker; Dykema, John A.; Lobell, David B., 2009: “Warming increases the risk of civil war in Africa”, in: PNAS, 106,49: 20670–20674.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bush, Ray, 2010: “Food riots: poverty, power and protest”, in: Journal of Agrarian Change, 10,1: 119–129.

    Google Scholar 

  • Campbell, Ivan; Dalrymple, Sarah; Rob, Craig; Crawford, Alec, 2009: Climate change and conflict: lessons from community conservancies in northern Kenya (Winnipeg: IISD).

    Google Scholar 

  • Carius, Alexander; Tänzler, Dennis; Winterstein, Judith, 2006: Weltkarte von Umweltkonflikten (Berlin: Adelphi).

    Google Scholar 

  • Cascão, Ana Elisa, 2009: “Changing power relations in the Nile river basin: unilateralism vs. cooperation?”, in: Water Alternatives, 2,2: 245–268.

    Google Scholar 

  • Chavunduka, Charles; Bromley, Daniel, 2011: “Climate, carbon, civil war and flexible boundaries: Sudan’s contested landscape”, in: Land Use Policy, 28, 4: 907–916.

    Google Scholar 

  • CNA Military Advisory Board, 2014: National security and the accelerating risks of climate change (Alexandria: CNA Corporation).

    Google Scholar 

  • Conca, Ken; Dabelko, Geoffrey D. (Eds.), 2002: Environmental peacemaking (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press).

    Google Scholar 

  • Cotula, Lorenzo, 2012: “The international political economy of the global land rush: a critical appraisal of trends, scale, geography and drivers”, in: Journal of Peasant Studies, 39,3–4: 649–680.

    Google Scholar 

  • Couttenier, Mathieu; Soubeyran, Raphael, 2013: “Drought and civil war in sub-Saharan Africa”, in: The Economic Journal, 124,1: 201–244.

    Google Scholar 

  • CRED, 2014: “EM-DAT: the OFDA/CRED international disaster database”, <http://www.emdat.be/> (17 July 2014).

  • Dabelko, Geoffrey D.; Herzen, Lauren; Null, Schuyler; Parker, Meaghan; Sticklor, Russell (Eds.), 2013: Backdraft: the conflict potential of climate change adaptation and mitigation. (Washington DC: Woodrow Wilson Center).

    Google Scholar 

  • Daoudi, Mohammed Dajani, 2009: “Conceptualization and debate on environmental and human security in Palestine”, in: Brauch, Hans Günter; Oswald Spring, Úrsula; Grin, John; Mesjasz, Czeslaw; Kameri-Mbote, Patricia; Chadha Behera, Navnita; Courou, Béchir; Krummenacher, Heinz (Eds.): Facing global environmental change: environment, human, energy, food, health and water security concepts (Berlin—Heidelberg: Springer): 873–883.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dasgupta, Susmita; Laplante, Benoit; Meisner, Craig; Wheeler, David; Yan, Jianping, 2009: “The impact of sea level rise on developing countries: a comparative analysis”, in: Climatic Change, 93,3–4: 379–388.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dasgupta, Susmita; Laplante, Benoit; Murray, Siobhan; Wheeler, David, 2011: “Exposure of developing countries to sea-level rise and storm surges”, in: Climatic Change, 106,4: 567–579.

    Google Scholar 

  • de Châtel, Francesca, 2014: “The role of drought and climate change in the Syrian uprising: untangling the triggers of the revolution”, in: Middle Eastern Studies, 50,4: 521–535.

    Google Scholar 

  • de Martino, Luigi; Carlsson, Annica; Rampolla, Gioanluca; Kadyrzhanova, Inkar; Svedberg, Peter; Denisov, Nickolai; Novikov, Viktor; Rekacewitcz, Philippe; Simonett, Otto; Skalvik, Janet Fernandez; del Pietro, Dominique; Rizollio, Diana; Palosaari, Marika, 2005: Transforming risks into cooperation: Central Asia, Ferghana/Osh/Khujand area (Geneva: ENVSEC).

    Google Scholar 

  • Detges, Adrien, 2014: “Close-up on renewable resources and armed conflict: the spatial logic of pastoralist violence in northern Kenya”, in: Political Geography, 42,1: 57–65.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dietz, Kristina; Engels, Bettina, 2014: “Immer (mehr) Ärger wegen der Natur?—Für eine gesellschafts- und konflikttheoretische Analyse von Konflikten um Natur”, in: Österreichische Zeitschrift für Politikwissenschaft, 43, 1: 73–90.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dixon, Jeffrey, 2009: “What causes civil war? Integrating quantitative research findings”, in: International Studies Review, 11,4: 707–735.

    Google Scholar 

  • Drury, A. Cooper; Olson, Richard Stuart, 1998: “Disasters and political unrest: an empirical investigation”, in: Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management, 6,3: 153–161.

    Google Scholar 

  • Eaton, David, 2008: “The business of peace: raiding and peace work along the Kenya–Uganda border (part I)”, in: African Affairs, 107,426: 89–110.

    Google Scholar 

  • El Raey, Mohamed, 1997: “Vulnerability assessment of the coastal zone of the Nile delta of Egypt to the impacts of sea level rise”, in: Ocean & Coastal Management, 37,1: 29–40.

    Google Scholar 

  • Elsharkawy, H.; Rashed, H.; Rached, I., 2009: “Climate change: the impacts of sea level rise on Egypt”, Paper for the 45th ISOCARP Congress, Porto, 18–22 October 2009.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ember, Carol C.; Adem, Teferi Abate; Skoggard, Ian; Jones, Eric C., 2012: “Livestock raiding and rainfall variability in northern Kenya”, in: Civil Wars, 14,2: 159–181.

    Google Scholar 

  • Engels, Bettina, 2014: “Contentious politics of scale: the global food price crisis and local protest in Burkina Faso”, in: Social Movement Studies, online first. DOI:10.1080/14742837.2014.921148.

    Google Scholar 

  • Eriksen, Siri; Lind, Jeremy, 2009: “Adaptation as a political process: adjusting to drought and conflict in Kenya’s drylands”, in: Environmental Management, 43,5: 817–835.

    Google Scholar 

  • Esty, Daniel; Goldstone, Jack; Gurr, Ted Robert; Harff, Barbara; Levy, Marc; Dabelko, Geoffrey; Surko, Pamela; Unge, Allan, 1999: “State failure task force report: phase II findings”, in: Environmental Change and Security Project Report, 5,1: 49–72.

    Google Scholar 

  • Faris, Stephen, 2007: “The real roots of Darfur”, in: The Atlantic Monthly, 2007, April: 2.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fearon, James D., 2010: Governance and civil war onset, WDR 2011 background paper (Washington DC: World Bank).

    Google Scholar 

  • Feil, Moira; Klein, Diana; Westerkamp, Meike, 2009: Regional cooperation on environment, economy and natural resource management: how can it contribute to peacebuilding? (Brussels: Initiative for Peacebuilding).

    Google Scholar 

  • Feitelson, Eran; Tamimi, Abdelrahman; Rosenthal, Gad, 2012: “Climate change and security in the Israeli–Palestinian context”, in: Journal of Peace Research, 49,1: 241–257.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fjelde, Hanne; von Uexkull, Nina, 2012: “Climate triggers: rainfall anomalies, vulnerability and communal conflict in sub-Saharan Africa”, in: Political Geography, 31,7: 444–453.

    Google Scholar 

  • Frihy, Omran E.; El-Sayed, Mahmoud Kh., 2013: “Vulnerability risk assessment and adaptation to climate change induced sea level rise along the Mediterranean coast of Egypt”, in: Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 18,8 : 1215–1237.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fröhlich, Christiane, 2012: “Security and discourse: the Israeli–Palestinian water conflict”, in: Conflict, Security & Development, 12,2: 123–148.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gausset, Quentin, 2007: “Land tenure and land conflicts among the Adamawa, Northern Cameroon”, in: Derman, Bill; Odgaard, Rie; Sjaastad, Espen (Eds.): Conflicts over land and water in Africa (Oxford: James Currey).

    Google Scholar 

  • Ghimire, Ramesh; Ferreira, Susana; Dorfman, Jeffrey H., 2015: “Flood-induced displacement and civil conflict”, in: World Development, 66,1: 614–628.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gizelis, Theodora-Ismene; Wooden, Amanda E., 2010: “Water resources, institutions, & intrastate conflict”, in: Political Geography, 29,8: 444–453.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gleditsch, Nils Petter; Furlong, Kathryn; Hegre, Håvard; Lacina, Bethany; Owen, Taylor, 2006: “Conflicts over shared rivers: Resource scarcity or fuzzy boundaries?”, in: Political Geography, 25,4: 361–382.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gleditsch, Nils Petter; Nordås, Ragnhild, 2014: “Conflicting messages? The IPCC on conflict and human security”, in: Political Geography, 43,1.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gleick, Peter, 2014: “Water, drought, climate change, and conflict in Syria”, in: Weather, Climate, and Society, 6,3: 331–340.

    Google Scholar 

  • Goulden, Marisa; Conway, Declan; Persechino, Aurelie, 2009: “Adaptation to climate change in international river basins in Africa: a review”, in: Hydrological Sciences, 54, 5: 805–828.

    Google Scholar 

  • Guardian, 2009: “The first climate change conflicts”, <http://www.guardian.co.uk/journalismcompetition/professional-climate-change-conflicts/print> (23 June 2011).

  • Hauge, Wenche; Ellingsen, Tanja, 1998: “Beyond environmental scarcity: causal pathways to conflict”, in: Journal of Peace Research, 35,3: 299–317.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hegre, Håvard; Sambanis, Nicholas, 2006: “Sensitivity analysis of empirical results on civil war onset”, in: Journal of Conflict Resolution, 50,4: 508–535.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hendrix, Cullen S.; Glaser, Sarah M., 2007: “Trends and triggers: climate, climate change and civil conflict in sub- Saharan Africa”, in: Political Geography, 26,6: 695–715.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hendrix, Cullen S.; Salehyan, Idean, 2012: “Climate change, rainfall, and social conflict in Africa”, in: Journal of Peace Research, 49,1: 35–50.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hendrix, Cullen; Haggard, Stephan, 2015: “Global food prices, regime type, and urban unrest in the developing world”, in: Journal of Peace Research, 52,2: 143–157.

    Google Scholar 

  • Homer-Dixon, Thomas; Blitt, Jessica (Eds.), 1998: Ecoviolence: links among environment, population, and security (Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield).

    Google Scholar 

  • Houdret, Annabelle, 2012: “The water connection: irrigation, water grabbing and politics in southern Morocco”, in: Water Alternatives, 5,2: 284–303.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hsiang, Solomon; Burke, Marshall, 2014: “Climate, conflict, and social stability: what does the evidence say?”, in: Climatic Change, 123,1: 39–55.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hsiang, Solomon; Burke, Marshall; Miguel, Edward, 2013: “Quantifying the influence of climate on human conflict”, in: Science, 341, 6151: 1–14.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hsiang, Solomon M.; Meng, Kyle C., 2014: “Reconciling disagreement over climate–conflict results in Africa”, in: PNAS, 111, 6: 2100–2103.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hsiang, Solomon M.; Meng, Kyle C.; Cane, Mark A., 2011: “Civil conflicts are associated with the global climate”, in: Nature, 476,7361: 438–441.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ide, Tobias, 2015: “Why do conflicts over scarce renewable resources turn violent? A qualitative comparative analysis”, in: Global Environmental Change, 33,1: 61–70.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ide, Tobias; Scheffran, Jürgen, 2014: “On climate, conflict and cumulation: suggestions for integrative cumulation of knowledge in the research on climate change and violent conflict”, in: Global Change, Peace & Security, 26,3: 263–279.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ide, Tobias; Schilling, Janpeter; Link, Jasmin S. A.; Scheffran, Jürgen; Ngaruiya, Grace; Weinzierl, Thomas, 2014: “On exposure, vulnerability and violence: spatial distribution of risk factors for climate change and violent conflict across Kenya and Uganda”, in: Political Geography, 43,1: 68–81.

    Google Scholar 

  • IPCC, 2001: “TAR, working group I: the scientific basis, appendix I—glossary”, <http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg1/518.htm> (24 July 2014).

  • IPCC, 2007a: Climate change 2007: synthesis report (Geneva: IPCC).

    Google Scholar 

  • IPCC, 2007b: Climate change 2007: The physical science basis (Geneva: IPCC).

    Google Scholar 

  • IPCC, 2012: Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation (New York: Cambridge University Press).

    Google Scholar 

  • IPCC, 2013: Climate change 2013: the physical science basis (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press).

    Google Scholar 

  • IPCC, 2014: Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability (Geneva: IPCC).

    Google Scholar 

  • Jabri, Vivienne, 1996: Discourses on violence: conflict analysis reconsidered (Manchester: Manchester University Press).

    Google Scholar 

  • Johnstone, Sarah; Mazo, Jeffrey, 2011: “Global warming and the Arab Spring”, in: Survival: Global Politics and Strategy, 53,2: 11–17.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kahl, Colin H., 2006: States, scarcity, and civil strife in the developing world (Princeton: Princeton University Press).

    Google Scholar 

  • Kelman, Ilan, 2012: Disaster diplomacy: how disasters affect peace and conflict (London: Routledge).

    Google Scholar 

  • Kevane, Michael; Gray, Leslie, 2008: “Darfur: rainfall and conflict”, in: Environmental Research Letters, 3,3: 1–10.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kim, Ungtae; Kaluarachchi, Jagath J., 2009: “Climate change impacts on water resources in the upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia”, in: Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 45,6: 1361–1378.

    Google Scholar 

  • Klehmet, Katharina, 2009: Klima in Ostafrika—Modellvalidierung und Untersuchung regionaler Charakteristika (Bonn: Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität).

    Google Scholar 

  • Koubi, Vally; Bernauer, Thomas; Kalbhenn, Anna; Spilker, Gabriele, 2012: “Climate variability, economic growth, and civil conflict”, in: Journal of Peace Research, 49,1: 113–127.

    Google Scholar 

  • Landis, Steven T., 2014: “Temperature seasonality and violent conflict: the inconsistencies of a warming planet”, in: Journal of Peace Research, 51,5: 603–618.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lautze, Jonathan; Reeves, Meredith; Vega, Rosaura; Kirshen, Paul, 2005: “Water allocation, climate change, and sustainable peace: the Israeli proposal”, in: Water International, 30,2: 197–209.

    Google Scholar 

  • Link, P. Michael; Piontek, Franziska; Scheffran, Jürgen; Schilling, Janpeter, 2012: “On foes and flows: vulnerabilities, adaptive capacities and transboundary relations in the Nile river basin in times of climate change”, in: L’Europe en formation, 365, 3: 99–138.

    Google Scholar 

  • Link, Peter Michael; Kominek, Jasmin; Scheffran, Jürgen, 2013: “Impacts of accelerated sea level rise on the coastal zones of Egypt”, in: Mainzer Geographische Studien, 55,1: 79–94.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lipchin, Clive, 2007: “Water, agriculture and Zionism: exploring the interface between policy and ideology”, in: Lipchin, Clive; Pallant, Eric; Saranga, Danielle; Amster, Allyson (Eds.): Integrated water resources management and security in the Middle East (Dordrecht: Springer): 251–268.

    Google Scholar 

  • Maas, Achim; Scheffran, Jürgen Scheffran, 2012: “Climate conflicts 2.0? Geoengineering as a challenge for international peace and security”, in: Security & Peace, 30,4: 193–200.

    Google Scholar 

  • Malm, Andreas, 2013: “Sea wall politics: uneven and combined protection of the Nile Delta coastline in the face of sea level rise”, in: Critical Sociology, 39,6: 803.832.

    Google Scholar 

  • Maystadt, Jean François; Ecker, Olivier, 2014: “Extreme weather and civil war: does drought fuel conflict in Somalia through livestock price shocks?”, in: American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 96,4: 1157–1182.

    Google Scholar 

  • McSweeney, C.; New, M.; Lizcano, G., 2008: “UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles—Kenya”; at: <http://country-profiles.geog.ox.ac.uk/> (25 June 2011).

  • Meier, Patrick; Bond, Doug; Bond, Joe, 2007: “Environmental influences on pastoral conflict in the Horn of Africa”, in: Political Geography, 26,6: 716–735.

    Google Scholar 

  • Meierding, Emily, 2013: “Climate change and conflict: avoiding small talk about the weather”, in: International Studies Review, 15,2: 185–203.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mekonnnen, Dereje Zeleke, 2010: “The Nile Basin cooperative framework agreement negotiations and the adoption of a ‘water security’ paradigm: flight into obscurity or a logical cul-de-sac?”, in: The European Journal of International Law, 21,2: 421–440.

    Google Scholar 

  • Messerschmid, Clemens, 2012: “Reality and discourses of climate change in the Israel–Palestinian conflict”, in: Scheffran, Jürgen; Brzoska, Michael; Brauch, Hans Günter; Link, Peter Michael; Schilling, Janpeter (Eds.): Climate change, human security and violent conflict: challenges for societal stability (Berlin—Heidelberg: Springer): 423–459.

    Google Scholar 

  • Miguel, Edward; Satyanath, Shanker; Sergenti, Ernest, 2004: “Economic shocks and civil conflict: an instrumental variables approach”, in: Journal of Political Economy, 112,41: 725–753.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mkutu, Kennedy, 2006: “Small arms and light weapons among pastoral groups in the Kenya–Uganda border area”, in: African Affairs, 106,422: 47–70.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mkutu, Kennedy, 2008: Guns and governance in the Rift Valley: pastoralist conflict and small arms (Bloomington: Indiana University Press).

    Google Scholar 

  • Moore, Dahlia; Guy, Anat, 2012: “The Israeli–Palestinian conflict: the sociohistorical context and the identities it creates”, in: Landis, Dan; Albert, Rosita (Eds.): Handbook of ethnic conflict: international perspectives (New York: Springer): 199–240.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mude, Andrew; Barrett, Christopher B.; Carter, Michael R.; Chantarat, Sommarat; Ikegami, Munenobu; McPeak, John, 2009: Index based livestock insurance for northern Kenya’s arid and semi-arid lands: the Marsabit pilot (Nairobi: International Livestock Research Institute).

    Google Scholar 

  • Müller, Christoph; Cramer, Wolfgang; Hare, William L.; Lotze-Campen, Hermann, 2011: “Climate change risks for African agriculture”, in: PNAS, 108,11: 4313–4315.

    Google Scholar 

  • Nardulli, Peter F.; Peyton, Buddy; Bajjalieh, Joseph, 2015: “Climate change and civil unrest: the impact of rapidonset disasters”, in: Journal of Conflict Resolution, 59, 2: 310–335.

    Google Scholar 

  • Nel, Philip; Righarts, Marjolein, 2008: “Natural disasters and the risk of violent civil conflict”, in: International Studies Quarterly, 52,1: 159–185.

    Google Scholar 

  • Njiru, Beth Njeri, 2012: “Climate change, resource competition, and conflict amongst pastoral communities in Kenya”, in: Scheffran, Jürgen; Brzoska, Michael; Brauch, Hans Günter; Link, Peter Michael; Schilling, Janpeter (Eds.): Climate change, human security and violent conflict: challenges for societal stability (Berlin—Heidelberg: Springer): 513–527.

    Google Scholar 

  • Nobel Peace Prize Committee, 2007: “The Nobel Peace Prize for 2007”, <http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/peace/laureates/2007/press.html> (19 August 2014).

  • Nyong, Anthony; Fiki, Charles; McLeman, Robert, 2006: “Drought-related conflicts, management and resolution in the West African Sahel: considerations for climate change research”, in: Die Erde, 137, 3: 223–248.

    Google Scholar 

  • O’Loughlin, John; Linke, Andrew M.; Witmer, Frank D. W., 2014: “Effects of temperature and precipitation variability on the risk of violence in sub-Saharan Africa, 1980–2012”, in: PNAS, 111,47: 16712–16717.

    Google Scholar 

  • O’Loughlin, John; Witmer, Frank D.W.; Linke, Andrew M.; Laing, Arlene; Gettelman, Andrew; Dudhia, Jimy, 2012: “Climate variability and conflict risk in East Africa, 1990–2009”, in: PNAS, 109,45: 18344–18349.

    Google Scholar 

  • Obioha, Emeka E., 2008: “Climate change, population drift and violent conflict over land resources in northeastern Nigeria”, in: Journal of Human Ecology, 23,4: 311–324.

    Google Scholar 

  • Omelicheva, Mariya Y., 2011: “Natural disasters: triggers of political instability?”, in: International Interactions, 37,4: 441–465.

    Google Scholar 

  • Omolo, Nancy A., 2010: “Gender and climate changeinduced conflict in pastoral communities: case study of Turkana in northwestern Kenya”, in: African Journal on Conflict Resolution, 10,2: 81–102.

    Google Scholar 

  • Opiyo, Francis; Wasonga, Oliver Vivian; Nyangito, Moses; Schilling, Janpeter, 2014: “Pastoralists’ adaptation and coping response to drought stresses in Turkana of northern Kenya”, in: Climate and Development (forthcoming).

    Google Scholar 

  • Peichert, Henrike, 2003: “The Nile Basin Initiative: a catalyst for cooperation”, in: Brauch, Hans Günter; Liotta, Peter H.; Marquina, Antonio; Rogers, Paul F.; El-Sayed Selim, Mohammed (Eds.): Security and environment in the Mediterranean: conceptualising security and environmental conflicts (Berlin—Heidelberg: Springer): 761–774.

    Google Scholar 

  • Piontek, Franziska, 2010: The impact of climate change on conflict and cooperation in the Nile basin. MA thesis (Hamburg: University of Hamburg).

    Google Scholar 

  • Rahman, Majeed A., 2013: “Water security: Ethiopia–Egypt transboundary challenges over the Nile River Basin”, in: Journal of Asian and African Studies, 48,1: 35–46.

    Google Scholar 

  • Raleigh, Clionadh; Kniveton, Dominic, 2012: “Come rain or shine: An analysis of conflict and climate variability in East Africa”, in: Journal of Peace Research, 49,1: 51–64.

    Google Scholar 

  • Raleigh, Clionadh; Urdal, Henrik, 2007: “Climate change, environmental degradation and armed conflict”, in: Political Geography, 26,6: 674–694.

    Google Scholar 

  • Raleigh, Clionadh; Choi, Hyun Jin; Kniveton, Dominic, 2015: “The devil is in the details: an investigation of the relationships between conflict, food price and climate across Africa”, in: Global Environmental Change, 32,1: 187–199.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ratner, Blake D.; Meinzen-Dick, Ruth; May, Candace; Haglund, Eric, 2013: “Resource conflict, collective action, and resilience: an analytical framework”, in: International Journal of the Commons, 7,1: 183–208.

    Google Scholar 

  • Reuveny, Rafael, 2007: “Climate change-induced migration and violent conflict”, in: Political Geography, 26,6: 656–673.

    Google Scholar 

  • Reuveny, Rafael, 2008: “Ecomigration and violent conflict: case studies and public policy implications”, in: Human Ecology, 36,1: 1–13.

    Google Scholar 

  • Reuveny, Rafael; Mihalache-O’Keef, Andreea S.; Li, Quan, 2010: “The effect of warfare on the environment”, in: Journal of Peace Research, 47,6: 749–761.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rowhani, Pedram; Degomme, Olivier; Guha-Sapir, Debarati; Lambin, Eric, 2011: “Malnutrition and conflict in East Africa: the impacts of resource variability on human security”, in: Climatic Change, 105,1: 207–222.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rutten, Marcel; Moses, Mwangi, 2014: “How natural is natural? Seeking conceptual clarity over natural resources and conflicts”, in: Bavinck, Maarten; Pellegrini, Lorenzo; Mostert, Erik (Eds.): Conflicts over natural resources in the global south: conceptual approaches (Boca Raton: CRC Press): 51–70.

    Google Scholar 

  • Saha, Sujan, 2012: “Security implications of climate refugees in urban slums: a case study from Dhaka, Bangladesh”, in: Scheffran, Jürgen; Brzoska, Michael; Brauch, Hans Günter; Link, Peter Michael; Schilling, Janpeter (Eds.): Climate change, human security and violent conflict: challenges for societal stability (Berlin—Heidelberg: Springer): 595–611.

    Google Scholar 

  • Salehyan, Idean, 2014: “Climate change and conflict: making sense of disparate findings”, in: Political Geography, 43,1: 1–5.

    Google Scholar 

  • Salehyan, Idean; Hendrix, Cullen, 2014: “Climate shocks and political violence”, in: Global Environmental Change, 28, 1: 239–250.

    Google Scholar 

  • Scheffran, Jürgen, 2011: “The security risks of climate change: vulnerabilities, threats, conflicts and strategies”, in: Brauch, Hans Günter; Oswald Spring, Úrsula; Mesjasz, Czeslaw; Grin, John; Kameri-Mbote, Patricia; Chourou, Béchir; Dunay, Pal; Birkmann, Jörn (Eds.): Coping with global environmental change, disasters and security (Berlin—Heidelberg: Springer): 735–756.

    Google Scholar 

  • Scheffran, Jürgen; Battaglini, Antonella, 2011: “Climate and conflicts: the security risks of global warming”, in: Regional Environmental Change, 11,1: S27–S39.

    Google Scholar 

  • Scheffran, Jürgen; Brzoska, Michael; Kominek, Jasmin; Link, P. Michael; Schilling, Janpeter, 2012a: “Climate change and violent conflict”, in: Science, 336,6083: 869–871.

    Google Scholar 

  • Scheffran, Jürgen; Brzoska, Michael; Kominek, Jasmin; Link, P. Michael; Schilling, Janpeter, 2012b: “Disentangling the climate-conflict nexus: empirical and theoretical assessment of vulnerabilities and pathways”, in: Review of European Studies, 4,5: 1–15.

    Google Scholar 

  • Scheffran, Jürgen; Cannaday, Thomas, 2013: “Resistance against climate change policies: the conflict potential of non-fossil energy paths and climate engineering”, in: Maas, Achim; Bodó, Balázs; Burnley, Clementine; Comardicea, Irina; Roffey, Roger (Eds.): Global environmental change: new drivers for resistance, crime and terrorism? (Baden-Baden: Nomos): 261–292.

    Google Scholar 

  • Scheffran, Jürgen; Ide, Tobias; Schilling, Janpeter, 2014: “Violent climate or climate of violence? Concepts and relations with focus on Kenya and Sudan”, in: International Journal of Human Rights, 18,3: 366–387.

    Google Scholar 

  • Scheffran, Jürgen; Link, Peter Michael; Schilling, Janpeter, 2012: “Theories and models of the climate-security interaction: framework and application to a climate hot spot in North Africa “, in: Scheffran, Jürgen; Brzoska, Michael; Brauch, Hans Günter; Link, Peter Michael; Schilling, Janpeter (Eds.): Climate change, human security and violent conflict: challenges for societal stability (Berlin—Heidelberg: Springer): 91–131.

    Google Scholar 

  • Scheffran, Jürgen; Marmer, Elina; Sow, Papa, 2012: “Migration as a contribution to resilience and innovation in climate adaptation: social networks and co-development in Northwest Africa”, in: Applied Geography, 33,1: 119–127.

    Google Scholar 

  • Schilling, Janpeter; Freier, Korbinian P.; Hertig, Elke; Scheffran, Jürgen, 2012: “Climate change, vulnerability and adaptation in North Africa with focus on Morocco”, in: Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 156,1: 12–26.

    Google Scholar 

  • Schilling, Janpeter; Opiyo, Francis; Scheffran, Jürgen, 2012: “Raiding pastoral livelihoods: motives and effects of violent conflict in north-eastern Kenya”, in: Pastoralism, 2,25: 1–16.

    Google Scholar 

  • Schilling, Janpeter; Opiyo, Francis; Scheffran, Jürgen; Weinzierl, Thomas, 2014: “On raids and relations: climate change, pastoral conflict and adaptation in north-western Kenya”, in: Bob, Urmilla; Bronkhorst, Salomé (Eds.): Conflict-sensitive adaptation to climate change in Africa (Berlin: BWV): 241–267.

    Google Scholar 

  • Selby, Jan, 2003: “Dressing up domination as ‘cooperation’: the case of Israeli–Palestinian water relations”, in: Review of International Studies, 29,1: 121–138.

    Google Scholar 

  • Selby, Jan, 2013: “Cooperation, domination and colonisation: the Israeli–Palestinian joint water committee”, in: Water Alternatives, 6,1: 1–24.

    Google Scholar 

  • Selby, Jan, 2014: “Positivist climate conflict research: a critique”, in: Geopolitics, 19,4: 829–856.

    Google Scholar 

  • Selby, Jan; Hoffmann, Clemens, 2014: “Beyond scarcity: rethinking water, climate change and conflict in the Sudans”, in: Global Environmental Change.

    Google Scholar 

  • Shuval, Hillel, 2007: “‘Virtual water’ in the water resource management of the arid Middle East”, in: Shuval, Hillel; Dweik, Hassan (Eds.): Water resources in the Middle East: Israel–Palestinian water issues—from conflict to cooperation (Berlin—Heidelberg: Springer): 133–139.

    Google Scholar 

  • Slettebak, Rune T., 2012: “Don’t blame the weather! Climate- related natural disasters and civil conflict”, in: Journal of Peace Research, 49,1: 163–176.

    Google Scholar 

  • Smith, Todd, 2014: “Feeding unrest: disentangling the causal relationship between food price shocks and sociopolitical conflict in urban Africa”, in: Journal of Peace Research, 51, 6: 679-695.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sneyd, Lauren Q.; Legwegoh, Alexander; Fraser, Evan D.G., 2013: “Foot riots: media perspectives on the causes of food protest in Africa”, in: Food Security, 5,4: 485–497.

    Google Scholar 

  • Solomon, Hussein, 2014: “Potential for cooperation rather than conflict in the face of water degradation: the cases of the Nile River and Okavango River basins”, in: Journal for Contemporary History, 39,1: 69–94.

    Google Scholar 

  • Stark, Jeffrey; Guillén, Sergio; Brady, Cynthia, 2012: Follow the water: emerging issues of climate change and conflict in Peru (Washington DC: USAID).

    Google Scholar 

  • Sternberg, Troy, 2012: “Chinese drought, bread and the Arab Spring”, in: Applied Geography, 34,1: 519–524.

    Google Scholar 

  • Stetter, Stephan; Herschinger, Eva; Teichler, Thomas; Albert, Mathias, 2011: “Conflicts about water: securitization in a global context”, in: Conflict and Cooperation, 46,4: 441–459.

    Google Scholar 

  • Streich, Philip A.; Mislan, David Bell, 2014: “What follows the storm? Research on the effect of disasters on conflict and cooperation”, in: Global Change, Peace & Security, 26,1: 55–70.

    Google Scholar 

  • Tänzler, Dennis; Maas, Achim; Carius, Alexander, 2010: “Climate change adaptation and peace”, in: Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 1,5: 741–750.

    Google Scholar 

  • Temesgen, Amsale K., 2010: Climate change to conflict? Lessons from southern Ethiopia and northern Kenya (Oslo: Fafo).

    Google Scholar 

  • Theisen, Ole Magnus, 2008: “Blood and soil? Resource scarcity and internal armed conflict revisited”, in: Journal of Peace Research, 45,6: 801–818.

    Google Scholar 

  • Theisen, Ole Magnus, 2012: “Climate clashes? Weather variability, land pressure, and organized violence in Kenya, 1989–2004”, in: Journal of Peace Research, 49,1: 81–96.

    Google Scholar 

  • Theisen, Ole Magnus; Gleditsch, Nils Petter; Buhaug, Halvard, 2013: “Is climate change a driver of armed conflict?”, in: Climatic Change, 117,3: 613–625.

    Google Scholar 

  • Theisen, Ole Magnus; Holtermann, Helge; Buhaug, Halvard 2012: “Climate wars? Assessing the claim that drought breeds conflict”, in: International Security, 36,3: 79–106.

    Google Scholar 

  • Tullow, 2014: “Operational update—Kenya”, <http://www.tullowoil.com/index.asp?pageid=137&category=&year=Latest&month=&tags=84&newsid=878> (23 April 2014).

  • TUPADO, 2011: Turkana pastoralist organisation incident register 2000–2010 (Lodwar: TUPADO).

    Google Scholar 

  • Tutiempo, 2011: “Kenya”, <http://www.tutiempo.net/en/Weather/Kenya/KE.html> (18 August 2011).

  • UNDP, United Nations Development Programme, 2006: Kenya National Human Development Report 2006 (Nairobi: UNDP).

    Google Scholar 

  • UNDP, United Nations Development Programme, 2010: Kenya National Human Development Report 2009 (Nairobi: UNDP).

    Google Scholar 

  • UNEP, United Nations Environment Programme, 2009: From conflict to peacebuilding: the role of natural resources and the environment (Nairobi: UNEP).

    Google Scholar 

  • Urdal, Henrik, 2005: “People vs. Malthus: Population Pressure, Environmental Degradation, and Armed Conflict Revisited”, in: Journal of Peace Research, 42,4: 417–434.

    Google Scholar 

  • von Uexkull, Nina, 2014: “Sustained drought, vulnerability and civil conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa”, in: Political Geography, 43,1: 16–26.

    Google Scholar 

  • Waterbury, John, 1979: Hydropolitics of the Nile basin (Syracuse: Syracuse University Press).

    Google Scholar 

  • WBGU, 2008: World in transition—climate change as a security risk (London: Earthscan).

    Google Scholar 

  • Weir, Tony; Virani, Zahira, 2011: “Three linked risks for development in the Pacific Islands: climate change, disasters and conflict”, in: Climate and Development, 3,3: 193–208.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wischnath, Gerdis; Buhaug, Halvard, 2014: “On climate variability and civil war in Asia”, in: Climatic Change, 122,4: 709–721.

    Google Scholar 

  • Witsenburg, Karen M.; Adano, Wario R., 2009: “Of rain and raids: violent livestock raiding in northern Kenya”, in: Civil Wars, 11, 4: 514–538.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wolf, Aaron T.; Yoffe, Shira B.; Giordano, Mark, 2003: “International waters: identifying basins at risk”, in: Water Policy, 5,1: 29–60.

    Google Scholar 

  • World Politics Review, 2011: “Global insider: Nile basin water rights”, <http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/trend-lines/8520/global-insider-nile-basin-water-rights> (18 August 2014).

  • Yeeles, Adam, 2015: “Weathering unrest: the ecology of urban social disturbances in Africa and Asia”, in: Journal of Peace Research, 52,2: 158–170.

    Google Scholar 

  • Zeitoun, Marc, 2008: Power and water in the Middle East: the hidden politics of the Palestinian–Israeli water conflict (London: Tauris).

    Google Scholar 

  • Zeitoun, Marc; Warner, Jeroen, 2006: “Hydro-hegemony: a framework for analysis of trans-boundary water conflicts”, in: Water Policy, 8,5: 435–460.

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhang, David; Brecke, Peter; Lee, Harry; He Yuan-Qing; Zhang, Jane, 2007: “Global climate change, war, and population decline in recent human history”, in: PNAS, 104,49: 19214–19219.

    Google Scholar 

  • Zimmerer, Jürgen, 2014: “Climate change, environmental violence and genocide”, in: International Journal of Human Rights, 18,3: 265–280.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Georg Eckert Institute, Braunschweig, Germany

    Tobias Ide

  2. University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany

    P. Michael Link & Janpeter Schilling

  3. Research Group Climate Change and Security (CLISEC) Institute of Geography, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany

    Jürgen Scheffran

Authors
  1. Tobias Ide
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. P. Michael Link
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Jürgen Scheffran
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Janpeter Schilling
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. AFES-PRESS, AG Friedensforschung und Europäische Sicherheitspolitik, Mosbach, Baden-Württemberg, Germany

    Hans Günter Brauch

  2. (UNAM), National Autonomous Univ. of Mexico (UNAM), Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico

    Úrsula Oswald Spring

  3. Department of Political Science, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

    John Grin

  4. Res. Group Climate Change and Security, Hamburg University ZMAW, Hamburg, Germany

    Jürgen Scheffran

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2016 Springer International Publishing Switzerland

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Ide, T., Michael Link, P., Scheffran, J., Schilling, J. (2016). The Climate-Conflict Nexus: Pathways, Regional Links, and Case Studies. In: Brauch, H., Oswald Spring, Ú., Grin, J., Scheffran, J. (eds) Handbook on Sustainability Transition and Sustainable Peace . Hexagon Series on Human and Environmental Security and Peace, vol 10. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-43884-9_12

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Search

Navigation