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Applied Demography and Public Health in the 21st Century pp 251–267Cite as

Implications of Age Structural Transition and Longevity Improvement on Healthcare Spending in India

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Part of the book series: Applied Demography Series ((ADS,volume 8))

Abstract

This study sheds light on the implication of changing demographics, particularly of gradual population ageing in India on the burden of healthcare expenditures (HCE) as a share of the gross domestic product (GDP). The key input is estimating the age patterns of HCE by integrating inpatient and outpatient costs from the unit level data of the National Sample Survey , then linking it with the trend in the aggregate level HCE from the National Account Statistics and projected population from the United Nations. Finally, it predicts the possible effects of age composition changes on future healthcare costs. Findings reveal that the growth of age-compositional effect on HCE shall increase from 0.5% in 2005 to 0.8% in 2025 and expected to remain stable afterwards. However, age-compositional effect on GDP may drop from 0.6 to 0.4% during the same period. The findings of the study are crucial for evolving a sustainable healthcare support system in view of the impending population ageing in India.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Mathematical Demography & Statistics, International Institute for Population Sciences, Deonar, Mumbai, 400088, India

    Preeti Dhillon & Laishram Ladusingh

Authors
  1. Preeti Dhillon
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  2. Laishram Ladusingh
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Preeti Dhillon .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Hobby Center for Public Policy, University of Houston, Houston, Texas, USA

    M. Nazrul Hoque

  2. Institute for Demographic and and Socioeconomic Research, University of Texas at San Antonio, San Antonio, USA

    Beverly Pecotte

  3. Health Statistics Branch, Center for Public Health Practice, Arkansas Department of Health, Little Rock, Arkansas, USA

    Mary A. McGehee

Appendices

Appendix 1

Percentage of population in different age groups in India and states, 2001 and 2026

India/State

2001

2026

0–14

15–59

60+

0–14

15–59

60+

Uttar Pradesh

41.1

52.9

6.1

28.8

61.3

9.8

Delhi

32.5

62.5

5.0

22.3

67.7

10.0

Madhya Pradesh

38.6

55.1

6.2

25.8

63.8

10.4

Rajasthan

40.1

53.9

6.0

24.5

64.6

10.8

Bihar

42.1

52.4

5.5

24.9

64.1

11.0

Assam

37.4

57.4

5.2

24.0

64.9

11.0

Jharkhand

39.8

55.2

5.0

24.5

64.2

11.3

Haryana

36.0

57.1

7.0

21.6

67.0

11.4

Chhattisgarh

37.0

56.6

6.5

24.9

63.5

11.6

Uttarakhand

36.4

56.3

7.3

24.3

64.0

11.7

Jammu & Kashmir

35.8

58.0

6.2

21.8

65.9

12.4

India

35.4

57.7

6.9

23.4

64.3

12.4

North-East States

36.4

58.2

5.3

21.4

66.2

12.4

Maharashtra

32.1

59.6

8.3

21.3

65.7

12.9

Gujarat

32.8

60.5

6.7

21.0

65.4

13.7

Orissa

33.2

59.0

7.8

21.0

65.1

13.8

West Bengal

33.3

60.1

6.6

20.4

65.4

14.2

Andhra Pradesh

32.1

60.8

7.2

20.2

65.5

14.2

Karnataka

31.9

60.8

7.3

20.4

65.1

14.5

Punjab

31.4

59.9

8.7

19.5

66.0

14.5

Himachal Pradesh

31.1

60.2

8.8

19.8

65.5

14.7

Tamil Nadu

27.0

64.0

9.0

18.7

64.2

17.1

Kerala

26.1

63.4

10.6

18.8

63.0

18.3

  1. Source Authors compilation from ORGI (2006)

Appendix 2

Appendix 3

Per capita healthcare expenditure by age and components of healthcare

Per capita out-of pocket healthcare expenditure, 2004–05

Public

Private

Age group

In-patient

Out-patient

Insurance/Premium

Abortion

Immunisation

Delivery

Anti-natal

Post-natal

Family planning

Medical attendant at death

Total

0–4

71

592

3

 

39

     

705

201

730

5–9

33

244

2

       

279

78

284

10–14

41

205

2

       

249

73

265

15–19

78

250

3

  

62.5

50.5

21.0

6.5

 

472

107

387

20–24

138

290

4

  

71.4

69.9

21.5

25.8

 

620

183

665

25–29

141

362

6

  

42.9

38.0

12.4

44.2

 

647

205

744

30–34

144

499

11

  

17.8

21.9

5.9

58.0

 

757

226

819

35–39

202

539

11

  

5.8

5.4

1.7

66.5

 

832

234

850

40–44

236

638

15

  

2.5

2.1

0.9

75.2

 

970

273

991

45–49

288

742

13

  

1.0

1.1

0.4

84.3

 

1131

333

1210

50–54

350

902

23

       

1275

386

1403

55–59

344

1270

15

       

1629

469

1705

60–64

420

1555

12

       

1988

580

2106

65–70

474

1749

8

       

2231

641

2326

70–74

876

2559

6

       

3441

1041

3782

75–79

582

2333

6

       

2922

862

3130

80–84

625

1787

5

       

2417

716

2599

85+

512

2580

14

       

3106

864

3138

Total expenditure

           

233

848

Calculated

188,819,804

628188112

7,987,267

 

4,919,407

20,822,444

19,115,186

6,508,963

27,004,694

 

903,365,877

  

Reported (MoHFW and WHO 2009)

218,333,032

614774538

 

40,220

4,851,318

31,925,528

12,543,534

5,808,715

26,279,373

15,446,918

930,003,176

  

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Dhillon, P., Ladusingh, L. (2017). Implications of Age Structural Transition and Longevity Improvement on Healthcare Spending in India. In: Hoque, M., Pecotte, B., McGehee, M. (eds) Applied Demography and Public Health in the 21st Century. Applied Demography Series, vol 8. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-43688-3_15

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-43688-3_15

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