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Individual and Societal Risk (RiskIS): Beyond Probability and Consequence During Hurricane Katrina

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Disaster Forensics

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Abstract

The classical definition of risk revolves around probability and consequence. However, individuals can have varying understanding of risk which in turn affects their decisions and actions. The varying understanding and actions stem from to deep-seated fundamental assumptions (i.e., beliefs and predispositions). However, deep-seated fundamental assumptions are often not included in traditional risk measures of probability and consequences. This chapter attempts to close this gap by developing a risk framework, RiskIS, that includes individual and society measures influencing decisions and actions. These measures are developed by examining literature and contrasting the resulting measures with a well-known event: Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans. A synthesis of this research provides a wider array of measures that influence decisions and actions (i.e., norms and personal attitudes, organizational structures, knowledge base, and social context, degree of connectivity, race and ethnicity, mass media, and national ideology). The proposed framework provides a basis for inclusion of a contextual frame of reference that influence actions beyond probability and consequence. Implications for those involved in disaster management are provided.

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Acknowledgment

This research was partly supported by a grant from the National Centers for System of Systems Engineering (NCSOSE) and Emergent Risk Initiative (ERI) @ Old Dominion University. NCSOSE is a university Enterprise Research Center of the Batten College of Engineering and Technology focused on decision making for multidisciplinary problems. The vision of ERI@ODU is to create the next generation body of knowledge in risk management for current and future systems and organizations characterized by uncertainty, emergence, complexity, and interdependence.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Old Dominon University, Norfolk, USA

    Polinpapilinho F. Katina

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  1. Polinpapilinho F. Katina
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Correspondence to Polinpapilinho F. Katina .

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  1. Centre for Security Science , OTTAWA, Ontario, Canada

    Anthony J. Masys

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Katina, P.F. (2016). Individual and Societal Risk (RiskIS): Beyond Probability and Consequence During Hurricane Katrina. In: Masys, A. (eds) Disaster Forensics. Advanced Sciences and Technologies for Security Applications. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-41849-0_1

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