Abstract
Current market conditions pose new challenges for institutional investors. Traditional asset and liability models are struggling to meet investors’ needs due to poor performance of equity and bond markets. The move of portfolio allocation to alternative assets is evident. As a result, illiquidity issues and rebalancing difficulty arise. We propose some new tactics of commodity futures to enhance the performance of portfolio return as well as solving illiquidity issues. Hidden Markov Model and multistage stochastic optimization are used to systematically optimize portfolio over a set of assets.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Notes
- 1.
The “golden rule” of 60/40 stock bond mix is explained in [1] by Malkiel.
- 2.
Please refer to [2].
- 3.
Please refer to [3].
- 4.
Please refer to [4].
- 5.
The figure is from course lecture notes of Golden [5].
- 6.
Please refer to [6] by Buffet for detailed discussion of the legendary investor’s investment philosophy.
- 7.
DPT Management constructed this index for FTSE, called the FTSE Target Commodity Family. All rights reserved. See Mulvey [7] for details.
References
B.G. Malkiel, A Random Walk Down Wall Street: The Time-Tested Strategy for Successful Investing, 10th edn. (W. W. Norton, 2012)
Deutsche Insurance Asset Management, TrendLines semi-annual report on development in the insurance investment market
T. Watson, Global Pension Assets Study 2013, 2012, 2011
Vanguard Group, Inc. Survey of Defined Benefit Plan Sponsors, 2012 and 2010
A. Golden, Endowment Management at Princeton University, Highlighting Some Quantitative Methods, Lecture notes from course ORF 311
W. Buffet, The Essays of Warren Buffet: Lessons for Investors and Managers (Wiley, Singapore, 2013)
J.M. Mulvey, A rule based commodity index. J. Investment Manage. (2013)
J.M. Mulvey, K. Simsek, Z. Zhang, Improving performance for pension plans. J. Asset Manage. 7, 93–108 (2006)
J.M. Mulvey, C. Ural, Z. Zhang, Improving performance for long-term investors: wide diversification. Leverage, and overlay strategies. Quant. Financ. 7(2), 1–13 (2007)
J.M. Mulvey, W. Kim, Constantly rebalanced portfolio—is mean reversion necessary? in Encyclopedia of Quantitative Finance (Wiley, UK, 2009)
J.M. Mulvey, G. Gould, C. Morgan, An asset and liability management system for Towers Perrin-Tillinghast. Interfaces 30(1), 96–114 (2000)
J.M. Mulvey, W. Kim, M. Bilgili, Dynamic investment strategies and rebalancing gains, in The Euromoney Algorithmic Trading Handbook 2007/2008 (2008)
J.M. Mulvey, W. Kim, Y. Ma, Duration-enhancing overlay strategies for defined benefit pension plans. J. Asset Manage. 11, 136–162 (2010)
J. Frankel, R. Andrew, Determinants of Agricultural and Mineral Commodity Prices. HKS Faculty Research Working Paper Series RWP10-038 (John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, 2010)
J. Gruber, R. Vigfusson, Interest rates and the volatility and correlation of commodity prices. International Finance Discussion Papers 1065 (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington, DC, 2012)
K. Tang, W. Xiong, Index investment and financialization of commodities. Financ. Anal. J. 68(6), 54–74 (2012)
J.D. Hamilton, A new approach to the economic analysis of non-stationary time series and the business cycle. Econometrica 57, 357–384 (1989)
C. Turner, R. Startz, C.R. Nelson, A Markov model of heteroskedasticity, risk, and learning in the stock market. J. Financ. Econ. 25, 3–22 (1989)
B. Hansen, The likelihood ratio test under non-standard conditions: testing the Markov switching model of GNP. J. Appl. Econ. 7, 61–82 (1992)
J.D. Hamilton, R. Susmel, Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and changes in regime. J. Econ. 64, 307–333 (1994)
R. Garcia, Asymptotic null distribution of the likelihood ratio test in Markov switching models. Int. Econ. Rev. 39, 763–788 (1998)
G. Bae, W. Kim, J.M. Mulvey, Dynamic asset allocation for varied financial markets under regime switching framework. Eur. J. Oper. Res. (2013)
A.M. Fraser, Hidden Markov Models and Dynamical Systems. Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (2008)
M.C. Bishop, Pattern Recognition and Machine Learning. Information Science and Statistics (2006)
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2017 Springer International Publishing Switzerland
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Mulvey, J.M., Kim, W.C., Lin, C. (2017). Optimizing a Portfolio of Liquid and Illiquid Assets. In: Consigli, G., Kuhn, D., Brandimarte, P. (eds) Optimal Financial Decision Making under Uncertainty. International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, vol 245. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-41613-7_7
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-41613-7_7
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-41611-3
Online ISBN: 978-3-319-41613-7
eBook Packages: Business and ManagementBusiness and Management (R0)