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The Performance of the Polls

  • Nick MoonEmail author
Chapter
  • 741 Downloads

Abstract

Nick Moon examines the performance of the opinion polls measuring voting intentions at the 2015 election, one of the worst ever for Britain’s pollsters. He assesses the scale of the polls’ failure, putting it into its historical context, and discusses evidence that a persistent bias may have existed in the polls for many years; he also commends the speed of the industry enquiry into the causes of the failure, and points out reasons to believe that polling has not stopped working altogether. Further, Moon considers the extent to which the polls may have influenced the course of the election, and the impact of the much-increased scale of constituency polling.

Keywords

Vote Share Observer Poll Final Poll Minority Government Exit Poll 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

References

  1. Ashcroft, M.A. (2015). Speech given at a Post-Election Conference, jointly hosted by Conservative Home, the Tax Payers’ Alliance, Business for Britain and the Institute of Economic Affairs. Retrieved 29 February 2016, from http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2015/05/lord-ashcroft-we-have-a-chance-to-build-a-party-no-one-need-feel-shy-about-supporting.html
  2. Cowley, P. (2001). The Observer: Good at observing, less good at influencing? Political Studies, 49, 957–968.Google Scholar
  3. Guardian. (2015). The Guardian view on flawed election forecasts: polls apart (Editorial). The Guardian, 14 May. Retrieved 10 March 2016, from http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/14/guardian-view-flawed-election-forecasts-polls-apart
  4. Sturgis, P., Baker, N., Callegaro, M., Fisher S., Green J., Jennings, W., Kuha, J., Lauderdale, B., and Smith, P. (2016). Report of the Inquiry into the 2015 British general election opinion polls. London: Market Research Society and British Polling Council.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© The Author(s) 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.GfK UK Social ResearchLondonUK

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