The Performance of the Polls
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Nick Moon examines the performance of the opinion polls measuring voting intentions at the 2015 election, one of the worst ever for Britain’s pollsters. He assesses the scale of the polls’ failure, putting it into its historical context, and discusses evidence that a persistent bias may have existed in the polls for many years; he also commends the speed of the industry enquiry into the causes of the failure, and points out reasons to believe that polling has not stopped working altogether. Further, Moon considers the extent to which the polls may have influenced the course of the election, and the impact of the much-increased scale of constituency polling.
KeywordsVote Share Observer Poll Final Poll Minority Government Exit Poll
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