Performance of NCMRWF Model TC Track Forecasts During 2013

Abstract

There are two tropical cyclone (TC) seasons over the North Indian Ocean (NIO), (including the Bay of Bengal (BOB) and the Arabian Sea (AS)), i.e. during the pre-monsoon months (April–early June) and the post-monsoon months (October–December) (Mohanty et al., Mar Geod 33:294–314, 2010). Further the Indian subcontinent happens to be one of the world’s highly vulnerable areas since the coastal population density is very high leading to an extensive damage to life and property. Therefore, forecasting of TC track and landfall location is critical for early warnings and mitigation of disaster. Track forecast errors over the NIO though improved significantly in recent years (Mohapatra et al., J Earth Syst Sci 122:589–601, 2013, J Earth Syst Sci 124:861–874. doi:10.1007/s12040-015-0581-x, 2015) are still high relative to those over the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. With advancements in computational power, development of better NWP models (both global and regional), the forecasting capability of meteorologists have greatly increased. Several meteorological centers like NCEP, UKMet office, ECMWF, JMA, JTWC etc give a real time forecast of TC tracks from their global NWP models (deterministic as well as Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS)) (Hamill et al. Mon Weather Rev 139:3243–3247, 2011; Froude et al. Mon Weather Rev 135:2545–2567, 2007; Buckingham et al. Weather Forecast 25:1736–1754, 2010; Heming et al. Meteorol Appl 2:171–184, 1995; Heming and Radford Mon Weather Rev 126:1323–1331, 1998). TC track prediction from an ensemble forecasting system besides providing a track from each ensemble member also provides the strike probability (Weber Mon Weather Rev 133:1840–1852, 2005). For the TCs of NIO, Mohapatra et al. (J Earth Syst Sci 122:589–601, 2013, J Earth Syst Sci 124:861–874. doi:10.1007/s12040-015-0581-x, 2015) provided a detailed verification of the official forecast tracks and its improvements in the recent past. This study provides a detailed verification of the NCMRWF NWP model forecasts of 2013 TC cases. Some of the earlier studies (Ashrit et al. Improved track and intensity predictions using TC bogusing and regional assimilation. In: Mohanty UC, Mohapatra M, Singh OP, Bandyopadhyay BK, Rathore LS (eds) Monitoring and prediction of TCs in the Indian ocean and climate change, Springer, Dordrecht, p 246–254, 2014; Chourasia et al. Mausam 64:135–148, 2013 and Mohandas and Ashrit Nat hazard 73:213–235, 2014) focused on the NCMRWF model TC forecasts and the impact of bogusing, assimilation and cumulus parameterisation etc. The present study is focused on the real time operational forecasts provided to India Meteorological Department (IMD). During May–December 2013, there were five TCs observed in the Bay of Bengal namely: Viyaru (May10–17), Phailin (October 4–14), Helen (November 19–23), Lehar (November 19–28) and Madi (December 6–13). This report summarises the performance of the real time prediction of these TC tracks by the NCMRWF Global Forecast Systems.