Abstract
The drastic internal deflation approach adopted as a remedy to the Greek government debt problem, gave rise to an unforeseen socio-humanitarian crisis, and increased political populism and polarization. While the macroeconomic merits of this strategy are debatable, politically, Greece seems to have turned into a key political risk, for itself, as well as for the Eurozone, with potentially significant impacts on the world economy. Considering the different perspectives between the current Greek government and EU decision making and stakeholder echelons, we wonder if the ‘true’ value of ‘curing’ the Greek government debt is really equivalent to a rip in the Eurozone, or to Greece’s defaulting, which seems to be the only political dichotomy being considered at present. In this paper, we seek to depict some of the key arguments behind this political economy standoff, by depicting high-level shifts brought about in the Greek economy and its institutions, and the impact of the economic austerity measures on the Greek society.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Bank of Greece (2015a) Annual report of the Bank of Greece. http://www.bankofgreece.gr/Pages/el/Publications/GovReport.aspx?Filter_By=8. Accessed 25 Apr 2015
Bank of Greece (2015b) Deposits of credit institutions. http://www.bankofgreece.gr/Pages/el/Statistics/monetary/deposits.aspx. Accessed 25 Apr 2015
Blanchard O, Leigh D (2013) Growth forecast errors and fiscal multipliers. IMF Work Pap 13(1):1–43
CIA The World Factbook (2015) Country comparison public debt. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2186rank.html#gr. Accessed 30 Apr 2015
Coplin WD, O’Leary MK (1983) Systematic political risk analysis for planners. Plan Rev 11(1):14–17, 10.1108/eb054010
European Commission (2015) Financial assistance to Greece. http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/assistance_eu_ms/greek_loan_facility/index_en.htm. Accessed 25 Apr 2015
Eurostat (2015a) General government gross debt. http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/tgm/table.do?tab=table&init=1&plugin=1&language=en&pcode=tsdde410. Accessed 25 Apr 2015
Eurostat (2015b) General government deficit/surplus. http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/tgm/table.do?tab=table&init=1&plugin=1&language=en&pcode=tec00127. Accessed 25 Apr 2015
Eurostat (2015c) Real GDP growth rate—volume. http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/tgm/table.do?tab=table&init=1&plugin=1&language=en&pcode=tec00115. Accessed 25 Apr 2015
Eurostat (2015d) HICP—inflation rate annual average rate of change (%). http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/tgm/table.do?tab=table&init=1&language=en&pcode=tec00118&plugin=1. Accessed 25 Apr 2015
Eurostat (2015e) GDP per capita in PPS. http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/tgm/table.do?tab=table&init=1&plugin=1&language=en&pcode=tec00114. Accessed 25 Apr 2015
Eurostat (2015f) Unemployment rate, by sex. http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/tgm/table.do?tab=table&init=1&plugin=1&language=en&pcode=tsdec450. Access date. 25 Apr 2015
Eurostat (2015g) People at risk of poverty or social exclusion. http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/tgm/table.do?tab=table&init=1&plugin=1&language=en&pcode=t2020_50. Accessed 25 Apr 2015
Eurostat (2015h) Gross domestic product at market prices. http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/tgm/table.do?tab=table&init=1&plugin=1&language=en&pcode=tec00001. Accessed 25 Apr 2015
Frei D, Ruloff D (1988) The methodology of political risk assessment: an overview. World Futures 25(1):1–24. doi:10.1080/02604027.1988.9972072
Garver P (2009) The changing face of political risk. In: Lu KW, Verheyen G, Perera SM (eds) Investing with confidence: understanding political risk management in the 21st century. World Bank, Washington, DC
Harms P (2000) International investment, political risk, and growth. Springer, Boston, MA, 10.1007/978-1-4615-4521-7
International Monetary Fund (2015) General government gross debt for Greece©[GGGDTAGRC188N]. Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/GGGDTAGRC188N/. Accessed 28 Nov 2015
Kosmidou K, Doumpos M, Zopounidis C (eds) (2008) Country risk evaluation: methods and applications. Springer, New York, NY
Kotios A, Roukanas S (2013) The Greek crisis and the crisis in Eurozone’s governance. In: Sklias P, Tzifakis N (eds) Greece’s horizons: reflecting on the country’s assets and capabilities. Springer, London, pp 91–105
Koutsoukis NS (2013) Ekato eti Ellinikis Diakivernises: 1909-2009 (Ekατό έτη Eλληvιkής Διαkυβέρvησης: 1909-2009) Working paper, PT-GOVERN-01-102013. Research Group ‘Political Technology,’ Department of Political Science and International Relations, University of Peloponnisos, Korinth, Greece. http://politech.uop.gr/?ddownload=339. Accessed 1 Mar 2015
Koutsoukis NS, Roukanas S (2014) The GrExit paradox. Procedia Econ Financ 9:24–31
Koutsoukis NS, Roukanas S, Sklias P (2012) A reputation risk perspective on the Greek crisis. Int J Decis Sci Risk and Manage 4(1–2):38–57
McKellar R (2010) A short guide to political risk. Gower, Burlington, VT
OECD (2013) OECD economic surveys Greece, November 2013. http://www.keepeek.com/Digital-Asset-Management/oecd/economics/oecd-economic-surveys-greece-2013_eco_surveys-grc-2013-en#page3. Accessed 25 Apr 2015
Ramady MA (2013) Political, economic and financial country risk. Springer, New York, NY
Simon HA (1956) Rational choice and the structure of the environment. Psychol Rev 63(2):129–138
Snider LW (2005) Political risk: the institutional dimension. Int Interactions 31(3):203–222, 10.1080/03050620500294176
Stoychev SP (2013) Political risk in Europe: a quantitative index based on measures of corruption, market distortion, and the shadow economy. J Polit Risk 1(5). Available at https://www.jpolrisk.com/political-risk-in-europe-a-quantitative-index-based-on-measures-of-corruption-market-distortion-and-the-shadow-economy/
Tradingeconomics (2014) Greece Government Bond 10Y. http://www.tradingeconomics.com/greece/government-bond-yield. Accessed 30 Apr 2015
Triantopoulos Ch. (2015) It is true that money borrowed by Greece intended solely to repay previous debts and bank bailouts? (In Greek). Understanding the Greek crisis, March 2015, No 3, ELIAMEP
World Bank (2015a) Bank nonperforming loans to total gross loans (%). http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FB.AST.NPER.ZS/countries?page=1. Accessed 25 Apr 2015
World Bank (2015b) Gross Domestic Product for Greece [MKTGDPGRA646NWDB]. Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MKTGDPGRA646NWDB/. Accessed 29 Nov 2015
Acknowledgements
This paper has been partly supported by the University of Piraeus Research Center.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2016 Springer International Publishing Switzerland
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Koutsoukis, NS., Roukanas, S. (2016). ‘Compulsory’ Economic Deflation Turned Political Risk: Effects of Austere Decision-Making on Greece’s ‘True’ Economy (2008–2015) and the ‘Eurozone or Default’ Dilemma. In: Karasavvoglou, A., Kyrkilis, D., Makris, G., Polychronidou, P. (eds) Economic Crisis, Development and Competitiveness in Southeastern Europe. Contributions to Economics. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-40322-9_3
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-40322-9_3
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-40321-2
Online ISBN: 978-3-319-40322-9
eBook Packages: Economics and FinanceEconomics and Finance (R0)