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Modeling Elections and Referenda in Ireland

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The Political Economy of Social Choices

Part of the book series: Studies in Political Economy ((POEC))

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Abstract

Using survey data from the Irish Social Sciences Data Archive (ISSDA), we apply spatial models for the 2007 Irish general election, the 2008 Lisbon Treaty referendum, and the 2009 Lisbon Treaty referendum. These elections occurred right before and during the global financial crisis. This study will provide greater insight into the Irish electorate during this tumultuous time. By estimating through both multinomial and binomial logit models, we find that ideological distance between voter and party plays a significant role in determining the vote in the general election. Moreover, we find that valence plays a significant role in both of the treaty referenda. These findings suggest that the severity of the financial crisis, and the possibility of support from the European Union played a significant role in the positive result for the Yes campaign in 2009.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    The Lisbon Treaty was considered a redrafted version of the European Constitutional Treaty.

  2. 2.

    INES Data made available through Irish Social Science Data Archive.

  3. 3.

    Using a Kernel Density Estimation.

  4. 4.

    See results of full model in the Appendix.

  5. 5.

    Or, \( \rho \mathrm{i}\mathrm{j}\left(\mathrm{z}\right)= \Pr \left[\mathrm{u}\mathrm{i}\mathrm{j}\left(\mathrm{xi},\mathrm{z}\mathrm{j}\right)>\right(u\mathrm{i}\mathrm{l}\left(\mathrm{xi},\mathrm{z}\mathrm{l}\right),\forall \mathrm{l}\ne \mathrm{j} \).

  6. 6.

    Variance of \( \Psi =\frac{1}{6}{\uppi}^2 \).

  7. 7.

    The lack of variation in the responses may be due to the differing nature of the questions. This lack of clarity leads to a more difficult time separating voters on the axis. Other options included using differing questions, but these questions would allow for zero comparability between the elections, as they cover quite different topics.

  8. 8.

    As you can see on the social axis, a large group of voters coalesce near 1, but do not reach this limit. So the figure may appear to cut off these voters, but in actuality it is voters grouped near this value.

  9. 9.

    This is true because we have statistical significance for λyes at the .01 level as seen in Table 3.

  10. 10.

    The increased possible response range from 2008 to 2009, (5–10) allowed for greater variability. Moreover, the results from the factor analysis yielded a clearer distinction on the left-right scale between the economic and social factors. Both these differences contributed to clearer results.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Washington University in Saint Louis, Campus Box 1063, One Brookings Drive, St. Louis, MO, 63130-4899, USA

    Norman Schofield & William Simoneau

Authors
  1. Norman Schofield
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  2. William Simoneau
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Norman Schofield .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Economics, Wilfrid Laurier University, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada

    Maria Gallego

  2. Department of Political Science, Washington University in St. Louis, Saint Louis, Missouri, USA

    Norman Schofield

Appendix

Appendix

 

Dependent variable

Vote

(Spatial model)

(Full model)

λfg (intercept)

−0.421***

−0.584

(0.098)

(0.428)

λgr (intercept)

−2.505***

−5.604***

(0.223)

(1.201)

λin (intercept)

−1.839***

−2.140***

(0.167)

(0.714)

λlb (intercept)

−1.385***

−2.795***

(0.138)

(0.640)

λpd (intercept)

−2.735***

−4.408***

(0.251)

(1.300)

λsf (intercept)

−2.223***

−2.770***

(0.199)

(0.879)

β

0.794***

0.662***

(0.203)

(0.213)

fg:educ

 

0.135*

 

(0.071)

gr:educ

 

0.570***

 

(0.184)

pd:educ

 

0.622***

gr:mass

 

0.211*

 

(0.113)

in:mass

 

0.163*

 

(0.085)

lb:mass

 

0.260***

 

(0.067)

sf:mass

 

0.337***

 

(0.087)

Observations

615

615

R2

0.008

0.039

Log likelihood

−917.838

−889.289

LR Test

15.675** (df = 7)

72.773*** (df = 25)

  1. Note: *p < 0.1; **p < 0.05; ***p < 0.01

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Schofield, N., Simoneau, W. (2016). Modeling Elections and Referenda in Ireland. In: Gallego, M., Schofield, N. (eds) The Political Economy of Social Choices. Studies in Political Economy. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-40118-8_11

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