Abstract
Using a survey from a nationally representative sample in the U.S., this paper applies a spatial model of election to 2012 U.S. Presidential election. Studying 2012 Presidential election allows us to examine the role of activists in U.S. elections, since this election is the first presidential election after the historical Citizens United decision by the U.S. Supreme Court, which resulted in the removal of the limits on campaign contribution. By estimating a set of multinomial logit models, we find that ideological distance between candidate and voters still plays a significant role in determining vote choice in the U.S. elections. However, the valence of candidate in 2012 election turns out to be not a statically significant predictor of vote choice. These finding suggest that the exogenous increase in campaign contribution has emphasized the role of ideological distance in voting behavior, while reducing the effect of valence.
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Appendices
Appendix 1: Questions for the 2012 TAPS
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1.
Indicate your level of agreement with this statement: Federal personal income taxes for individuals with incomes higher than $250,000 should be raised.
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2.
Which actions are you in favor of and which are you against: less government regulation of business?
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3.
Indicate your level of agreement: Incomes should be more equal because everyone’s contribution to society is equally important.
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4.
Do you consider your view of the federal government recognizing same-sex marriages liberal, moderate, or conservative?
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5.
Do you consider your view of federal funding for abortion liberal, moderate, or conservative?
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6.
Do you consider your view of the banning possession of handguns liberal, moderate, or conservative?
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7.
Do you consider your view of programs designed to help minorities get better jobs and education liberal, moderate, or conservative?
Appendix 2: Factor Loadings for Economic and Social Policy
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Kim, J.H., Schofield, N. (2016). Spatial Model of U.S. Presidential Election in 2012. In: Gallego, M., Schofield, N. (eds) The Political Economy of Social Choices. Studies in Political Economy. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-40118-8_10
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-40118-8_10
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