Abstract
The aim of link prediction is to forecast connections that are most likely to occur in the future, based on examples of previously observed links. A key insight is that it is useful to explicitly model network dynamics, how frequently links are created or destroyed when doing link prediction. In this paper, we introduce a new supervised link prediction framework, RPM (Rate Prediction Model). In addition to network similarity measures, RPM uses the predicted rate of link modifications, modeled using time series data; it is implemented in Spark-ML and trained with the original link distribution, rather than a small balanced subset. We compare the use of this network dynamics model to directly creating time series of network similarity measures. Our experiments show that RPM, which leverages predicted rates, outperforms the use of network similarity measures, either individually or within a time series.
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Acknowledgments
Research at University of Central Florida was supported with an internal Reach for the Stars award. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.
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Hajibagheri, A., Sukthankar, G., Lakkaraju, K. (2016). Leveraging Network Dynamics for Improved Link Prediction. In: Xu, K., Reitter, D., Lee, D., Osgood, N. (eds) Social, Cultural, and Behavioral Modeling. SBP-BRiMS 2016. Lecture Notes in Computer Science(), vol 9708. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-39931-7_14
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