Abstract
Provided a tax on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) is effectively passed onto prices and significantly decreases SSB demand (see Chaps. 5 and 6), a question frequently raised is to know whether, overall, this reduction can have a meaningful impact on energy balance and population health . In this chapter, reviewed evidence suggests that a lower SSB consumption may be partially compensated by a higher consumption of other caloric foods and drinks (e.g. untaxed fruit juice and snack foods). Yet, studies simulating a 20 % price increase on SSBs accounting for substitution effects generally predict a positive—although modest—impact on energy balance. These studies are based on fragile assumptions. Substitution concerns should be further explored from soda taxes actually implemented across the world.
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Notes
- 1.
i.e. Increase in SSB prices tends to cause a decrease in the demand for both SSBs and NCSBs.
- 2.
For example, according to a British modelling study, diet cola appears to be a substitute to regular cola in high consumers, but a complement to regular soda in moderate consumers (Tiffin et al. 2015, p. 8).
- 3.
For price elasticity terms of reference, see Chap. 6, Box 6.1.
- 4.
Some of the “energy-to-weight” models used in SSB taxation simulations (e.g. Smith et al. 2010) rely on a linear static model based on the assumption that “a cumulative energy deficit of 3500 calories is required to lose one pound of body weight” (Lin et al. 2011, p. 338). However, because of the complex and dynamic links between energy intake and body weight, Lin et al. (2011) recommend using a dynamic model accounting for physiological adaptations as body weight changes, in particular because energy expenditures increase (decrease) when body weight increases (decreases). Lin et al.’s comparative analysis based on laboratory data demonstrates that using static instead of dynamic “energy-to-weight” models in SSB taxation simulations can result in a 7-fold overestimation of body weight loss at the end of a 10-year period (Lin et al. 2011, p. 336). Therefore, in this section, we only refer to studies having considered dynamic “energy-to-weight” models.
- 5.
Weighted according to the US Census 2010.
- 6.
Sample of demographically representative households from the state of Victoria.
- 7.
Soft drink concentrates.
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Le Bodo, Y., Paquette, MC., De Wals, P. (2016). Effects of Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Taxation on Energy Intakes and Population Health. In: Taxing Soda for Public Health. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-33648-0_7
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