The Philippines 1910–2003: A Century of Transitions

Abstract

The Philippines experienced a rapid land-use transition during the 20th century. Forest cover decreased from approximately 70 % in 1900 to less than 25 % in 2000, whereas cropland areas and grasslands expanded. At the turn of the millennium, however, the land cover patterns appear more stable. We analyze this trajectory by linking it to the transition from an agrarian sociometabolic regime to an industrial regime. During the 20th century, the Philippines changed from a sparsely populated to a densely populated nation, with population numbers increasing more than tenfold. This rapid population growth went hand in hand with fundamental changes in the nation’s agricultural system. The challenge of maintaining food supply levels for the ever-growing number people was mainly met by the expansion of cultivated areas during the first part of the century. Later, intensification (i.e., higher output per unit land) became the dominant mode of increasing agricultural output. Here, the availability of fossil resources, offering non-land-based energy subsidies for agriculture, played a crucial role. In this way, land cover could be stabilized, albeit under massive changes in land-use intensity associated with negative environmental impacts and increased dependency on fossil fuels and mineral resources. We conclude with an outlook on the near future: the Philippines is still in the midst of the transition toward an industrial society, and the option space for future development is markedly smaller than for past trajectories of now-industrialized nations, mainly due to global resource competition.