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Demographic Dividends: Emerging Challenges and Policy Implications pp 83–113Cite as

Age-Structural Transition and Demographic Windows Around the Mediterranean

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Part of the book series: Demographic Transformation and Socio-Economic Development ((DTSD,volume 6))

Abstract

The demographic window identifies the period during which countries can maximize the benefits of the favourable evolution of the age structure of the population. The work aims to analyse the phenomenon of demographic window in the Mediterranean during the period 1950–2010, with an extension in 2100, based its discussion on the most common approaches.

The first part is devoted to the presentation and analysis of the evolution of the components of population dynamics (fertility, mortality and migration) over the past 60 years. The second part tries to estimate, for each country, the opening and closing of the demographic window periods. The third part will be to identify possible future demographic windows by using high and low variant population projections of the United Nations in 2100 (World Population Prospects: the 2012 Revision).

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Notes

  1. 1.

    The full expression “demographic window of opportunity” was popularised by the US economists David Bloom, David Canning, Ronald Lee and Andrew Mason.

  2. 2.

    The 25 countries are subdivided as follows:

    • European littoral

    • EU countries: Portugal, Spain, France, Italy, Slovenia, Croatia, Greece, Malta;

    • Western Balkans: Bosnia-Herzegovina, Montenegro, Serbia, Albania, Macedonia (FYROM);

    • Asian littoral: Turkey, Syria (Syrian Arab Republic), Lebanon, Israel, Palestine (State of Palestine), Jordan, Cyprus;

    • African littoral: Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco.

  3. 3.

    United Nations, World Population Prospects. The 2012 Revision, 2013.

  4. 4.

    The cluster analysis was applied to four periods (1950–1955, 2005–2010, 2050–2055, 2095–2100) using the following variables: total fertility rate, male and female life expectancy at birth, total population growth rate, proportion of under-15 s, 15–64-year-olds, 65 s and older, total dependency ratio. The final groups emerging from hierarchical clustering by various methods (Ward’s method, centroid clustering, medoid clustering, average linkage) are listed by age-structural change.

  5. 5.

    Proportions are calculated for 5-year periods and the dates on the graphs mark the start of each period.

  6. 6.

    Proportions are calculated for 5-year periods and the dates on the graphs mark the start of each period.

  7. 7.

    The dates on the graphs mark the start of each period.

References

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Università degli Studi di Bari “Aldo Moro”, Bari, Italy

    Maria Carella

  2. Institut National d’Études Démographiques (INED), Futuribles, Paris, France

    Alain Parant

Authors
  1. Maria Carella
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  2. Alain Parant
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Maria Carella .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Università degli Studi di Bari “Aldo Moro”, Bari, Italy

    Roberta Pace

  2. Department of Population Studies, El Colegio de la Frontera Norte, Tijuana, Baja California, Mexico

    Roberto Ham-Chande

Appendices

Appendix 5.1. Countries in the Mediterranean Basin. General characteristics

Region/Country

Area (‘000 km2)

Population 2010 (‘000)

Density 2010 (pop/km2)

Urban population proportion 2010 (%)

PIB/habitant 2009 (en PPA en dollers)

Indice de dévelopment humain 2010

Valeur

Rang mondial

European littoral

1,866

218,908

117

73,3

   

EU countries

1,669

199,542

120

75,0

   

 Portugal

92

10,590

115

61.3

24,080

0.808

41

 Spain

506

46,182

91

77.6

31,490

0.876

23

 France

552

63,231

115

85.9

33,950

0.883

20

 Italy

301

60,509

201

68.6

31,870

0.873

24

 Slovenia

20

2,054

103

49.5

26,470

0.882

21

 Croatia

57

4,338

76

58.0

19,200

0.794

46

 Greece

132

11,110

84

61.7

28,800

0.862

29

 Malta

0

425

1,416

94.8

23,170

0.830

36

 Cyrus

9

1,104

123

70.5

30,290

0.839

31

West Balkans

197

19,365

98

54,9

   

 Bosnia-Herzegovina

51

3,846

75

49.2

8,770

0.731

74

 Montenegro

14

620

44

61.5

1, 110

0.769

54

 Albania

29

3,150

109

52.9

8,640

0.737

70

 Serbia

77

9,647

125

56.4

11,700

0.764

59

 FYROM

26

2,102

81

59.4

10,880

0.726

78

Asian littoral

1,105

115,899

105

70,2

   

 Turkey

784

72,138

92

70.1

13,500

0.696

92

 Syria

185

21,533

116

56.2

4,620

0.631

119

 Lebanon

10

4,341

434

87.4

13,400

0.737

71

 Israel

22

7,420

337

91.9

27,010

0.886

17

 Palestine

6

4,013

669

74.4

–

0.640

114

 Jordan

89

6,455

73

78.6

5,730

0.697

95

African littoral

5,754

163,453

28

54,7

   

 Egypt

1,001

78,076

78

43.5

5,680

0.644

113

 Libya

1,760

6,041

3

78.1

16,400

0.770

64

 Tunisia

164

10,632

65

67.7

7,810

0.698

94

 Algeria

2,382

37,063

16

67.1

8,110

0.696

96

 Morocco

447

31,642

71

58.8

4,400

0.579

130

Mediterranean Basin

8,725

498,260

57

66,4

   
  1. Sources: World population Prospects: The 2012 Revision, 2013; World Population Data Sheet, Population Reference Bureau; Human Development Report, United Nations Development Program

Appendix 5.2. Countries in the Mediterranean Basin. Demographic indicators, 2005–2010

Country

Mean annual population growth rate (‰)

Rate of natural increase (‰)

Net migration rate (‰)

Total fertility rate (children/women)

Mean age at child birth (years)

Net reroduction rate (surviving daughters/women)

Life expectary at birth (years)

Infant mortality rate (per 1,000 live births)

Male

Female

European littoral

EU countries

Portugal

1,5

−0,3

1,9

1,4

29,5

0,7

75,5

81,9

3

Spain

12,5

1,9

10,0

1,4

30,8

0,7

78,0

84,4

4

France

5,7

4,2

1,7

2,0

29,9

1,0

77,4

84,3

4

Italy

6,2

−0,4

6,4

1,4

31,1

0,7

78,7

84,1

3

Slovenia

5,3

0,6

4,4

1,4

29,9

0,7

75,1

82,0

3

Croatia

−2,3

−2,2

0,0

1,4

28,8

0,7

72,6

79,5

6

Greece

1,2

0,4

1,0

1,5

30,0

0,7

77,3

82,3

10

Malta

4,8

1,1

3,2

1,4

29,0

0,7

76,3

81,2

6

Cyprus

13,3

5,0

8,3

1,5

29,5

0,7

76,9

81,1

4

West Balkans

Bosnial-Herzegovina

−1,8

−0,6

−1,0

1,2

27,3

0,6

72,9

78,1

9

Montenegro

1,4

2,3

−1,1

1,7

28,2

0,8

71,9

76,5

11

Albania

−2,9

7,0

−9,5

1,6

27,1

0,8

73,4

79,7

16

Serbia

−6,3

0,0

−4,9

1,4

27,5

0,7

70,6

76,1

12

FYROM

1,2

2,0

−0,8

1,5

27,5

0,7

72,1

76,7

12

Asian littroal

Turkey

12,6

13,2

−0,1

2,2

27,4

1,0

69,9

76,9

16

Syria

34

20,4

11,5

3,2

29,4

1,5

73,1

77,3

15

Lebanon

17

9,1

8,8

1,6

29,6

0,8

76,2

80,6

10

Israel

23,3

15,4

7,8

2,9

30,1

1,4

78,7

82,7

4

Palestine

24

30,2

−4,8

4,4

29,2

2,1

70,6

73,8

22

Jordan

41,7

22,3

15,4

3,6

29,7

1,7

71,5

74,6

20

African littoral

Egypt

16,8

18,7

−0,9

3,0

27,8

1,4

67,6

72,3

23

Libya

15,4

20,0

−3,0

2,7

32,5

1,3

72,4

76,2

17

Tunisia

11,2

11,5

−0,6

2,1

31,2

1,0

72,3

77,0

19

Algeria

15,5

15,9

−0,3

2,7

31,7

1,3

68,8

71,8

30

Morocco

9,6

14,3

−4,0

2,4

30,5

1,1

67,9

71,3

32

  1. Source: World population Prospects: The 2012 Revision, 2013

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Carella, M., Parant, A. (2016). Age-Structural Transition and Demographic Windows Around the Mediterranean. In: Pace, R., Ham-Chande, R. (eds) Demographic Dividends: Emerging Challenges and Policy Implications. Demographic Transformation and Socio-Economic Development, vol 6. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-32709-9_5

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-32709-9_5

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