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Agent-Based Modelling in Population Studies pp 159–184Cite as

Using Survey Data for Agent-Based Modeling: Design and Challenges in a Model of Armed Conflict and Population Change

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Part of the book series: The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis ((PSDE,volume 41))

Abstract

Although agent-based models (ABMs) have become more commonly found in the demographic literature in the past decade, the use of survey data to populate and operationalize ABMs is still rare in demography. This technique, more commonly found in the geographic and land use literature, creates opportunities to study entirely new questions, but is time-consuming and cumbersome to use. In this chapter, we seek to contribute to the use of survey data based ABMs for demographic purposes. We do this by presenting details of the design, structure, and functioning of an agent-based model we created to examine the influence of armed conflict on population composition and change. In addition to presenting our model design, we also discuss several challenges and solutions to using survey data in the initialization and parameterization of survey-data based ABMs. Finally, we present illustrative examples from our ABM and compare the results with regression-based analyses. It is our aim that this presentation and discussion will expedite the design and testing of ABMs for future projects.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    For a useful guide to experimental research design for the social sciences, see Adler and Clark (2008).

  2. 2.

    Exogamous marriage allows for a less computationally burdensome model and in this case, reflects the common marital patterns of the context. Here we consider marriage patterns for Nepal, wherein women most often leave their childhood homes to reside with their new husband’s natal family. In this context where women leave their villages at marriage, it is reasonable to program our model for exogamous marriage, where our female agents leave their model villages (and thus entirely leave the model). At the same time, new wives (female agents) enter the model for every male agent who gets married. It would be possible to program the model to allow endogamous marriage (where a female agent from one model village marries a male agent from another model village), but this would create an unwieldy model and increase computational time immensely. Further, endogamous and exogamous marriage patterns create almost exactly the same gender ratios in the model. When utilizing the simpler process of exogamous marriage, modelers should populate the life history of the new agent with characteristics as appropriate to the social context of the study area and requirements of the particular model.

  3. 3.

    Household rosters also allow for the creation of older agents. However, for some models of demographic processes it will not be necessary to create older people if they cannot undertake birth, marriage, or migration. The necessity of creating older people entirely depends on the behaviors they can undertake and to what extent their presence influences the behaviors of other agents.

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Acknowledgements

This research was supported by generous grants from the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development including a research grant (HD067587) and a research infrastructure grant (R24HD042828) to the Center for Studies in Demography and Ecology. We thank Barbara Entwisle, William Axinn, and Dirgha Ghimire for their assistance, the Institute for Social and Environmental Research – Nepal for collecting the survey and violent event record data, Meeta Sainju-Pradhan for collecting the political event data, the South Asia Terrorism Portal and Informal Service Sector for collecting records of violent events, and the CVFS respondents for sharing their lives and experiences. All errors or omissions remain the responsibility of the authors.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Sociology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA

    Nathalie E. Williams & Michelle L. O’Brien

  2. Jackson School of International Studies, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA

    Nathalie E. Williams

  3. Center for Studies in Demography and Ecology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA

    Nathalie E. Williams & Michelle L. O’Brien

  4. Virginia Tech University, Blacksburg, VA, USA

    Xiaozheng Yao

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  1. Nathalie E. Williams
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Correspondence to Nathalie E. Williams .

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  1. Centre for Sociological Research, University of Leuven, Leuven, Belgium

    André Grow

  2. Centre for Sociological Research, University of Leuven, Leuven, Belgium

    Jan Van Bavel

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Williams, N.E., O’Brien, M.L., Yao, X. (2017). Using Survey Data for Agent-Based Modeling: Design and Challenges in a Model of Armed Conflict and Population Change. In: Grow, A., Van Bavel, J. (eds) Agent-Based Modelling in Population Studies. The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis, vol 41. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-32283-4_6

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