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The Decision to Emigrate: A Simulation Model Based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour

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Book cover Agent-Based Modelling in Population Studies

Part of the book series: The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis ((PSDE,volume 41))

Abstract

The theory of planned behaviour (TPB) is one of the most widely used theories of behaviour. It was developed by Ajzen as an extension of Fishbein’s theory of reasoned action (Fishbein and Ajzen, Predicting and changing behaviour. Psychology Press, New York, 2010). The theory states that intentions predict behaviour and intentions are shaped by beliefs. In the paper, the theory of planned behaviour is extended to a process theory and that theory is used to specify a micro-simulation model of emigration decision-making. The validity of the model is assessed by determining how well the model predicts stylized facts about international migration.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    See Fishbein and Ajzen (2010, p. 18 ff) for a historical perspective on the theory of reasoned action and theory of planned behaviour.

  2. 2.

    Recall that this perspective differs from that in the theory of planned behaviour. In the TPB, attitude (considering emigration beneficial), SN and PBC act independently on intentions; the effect of attitude on intention is not moderated by SN and PBC.

  3. 3.

    The Markov decision process is an analytical tool for sequential decision making under uncertainty. A Markov decision process generalizes a continuous-time Markov process in that a decision process is embedded in a Markov model and the process involves a sequence of actions (Alagoz et al. 2010). A model of the Markov decision process distinguishes states and actions. The probability that an individual continues to the next stage depends on the current state and the action. An action results in a reward. The value of the reward is unknown in advance. An individual knows the expected value, however. Markov decision processes are used to determine the times of transitions to the next stage that maximize lifetime rewards. In the model presented in this paper, an individual gets a reward if he/she emigrates. The reward is the net benefit of emigration.

  4. 4.

    The median value of V is 0.40.

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Acknowledgment

Icek Ajzen, Anna Klabunde, Matthias Leuchter, the students of the European Doctoral School of Demography 2014–2015, and two anonymous referees read the paper and provided extensive and very helpful comments. I am grateful for their help.

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  1. Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI), The Hague, The Netherlands

    Frans Willekens

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  1. Centre for Sociological Research, University of Leuven, Leuven, Belgium

    André Grow

  2. Centre for Sociological Research, University of Leuven, Leuven, Belgium

    Jan Van Bavel

Annex A. Parameters of the Microsimulation Model

Annex A. Parameters of the Microsimulation Model

Parameters Sample size 100000 Proportion highly skilled 0.20 Probability of developing an interest in emigration,  by skill level 0.25 0.48 Age at developing an interest in emigration: truncated normal distribution    Mean of untruncated normal distribution, by skill     level 19 20    Standard deviation of untruncated normal     distribution, by skill level 4 2 Average years it takes to develop an attitude towards emigration, by skill level 2.00 2.00 Age at decision not to develop a desire but to stay,     by skill level    Mean of untruncated normal distribution, by skill     level 27 28    Standard deviation of untruncated normal     distribution, by skill level 5 3    Truncated normal: lower bound 15.00 15.00    Truncated normal: upper bound 1000.00 1000.00 Subjective norm (SN): beta distribution    Shape parameter 1 (alpha) 3.00 4.00    Shape parameter 2 (beta) 5.00 5.00 Perceived behavioural control (PBC): normal distribution    Mean -10.00 10.00    Standard deviation 8.00 5.00 Composite score V based on SN and PBC    gamma 1.000    alpha 0.600    beta 0.400 Waiting time in attitude stage: scaling factor theta 1 Proportion of persons in attitude stage that develop     intention to emigrate 0.4 Actual behavioural control (ABC):    Uniformly distributed random factor    Lower bound -7.00    Upper bound 1.00    Transition rate as function of ABC    Emigration rate:    a 0.10    b 2.00    Dropout rate:    a 0.01    b 2.00

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Willekens, F. (2017). The Decision to Emigrate: A Simulation Model Based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour. In: Grow, A., Van Bavel, J. (eds) Agent-Based Modelling in Population Studies. The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis, vol 41. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-32283-4_10

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