Abstract
The final chapter discusses how the use of dynamic models helps in understanding the escalation and duration of a conflict, as opposed to cross-section estimates based on sparse data from different countries. This facilitates the analysis of factors that may stand responsible for the break-out and the escalation of a conflict. Usually, these factors range from the lack of strategy and leadership to incomplete information, and the economic analysis can be used to determine the costs incurred by failure to reach a compromise early on. Greece is found to have been singularly prone to most of such factors during the 1940s and this explains the dire consequences that the Civil War had on the country.
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Notes
- 1.
For details see Averof-Tositsas (2010, p. 292).
- 2.
Perhaps the most notorious rejection of reality was the claim by the KKE leader 2 months after the final defeat in Grammos that “the main forces of DAG remain unscathed with arms by the side”!
- 3.
For a description of this alarming situation by the US mission to Greece, see the Report by Porter (2006, p 80 and 162).
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Christodoulakis, N. (2016). A Critical Appraisal. In: An Economic Analysis of Conflicts. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-32261-2_10
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