Abstract
Almost all models of decision making assume an underlying boolean space of events. This gives a logical structure to events that matches the structure of propositions of classical logic. This chapter takes a different approach, employing events that form a topology instead of a boolean algebra. This allows for new modeling concepts for judgmental heuristics, rare events, and the influence of context on decisions.
The research for this chapter was supported by grants FA9550-08-1-0389 and FA9550-13-1-0012 from AFOSR. The chapter is based on a presentation given at the AFOSR Workshop on Catastrophic Risks, SRI Stanford, 2012.
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Narens, L., Saari, D. (2016). Modeling Decisions Involving Ambiguous, Vague, or Rare Events. In: Chichilnisky, G., Rezai, A. (eds) The Economics of the Global Environment. Studies in Economic Theory, vol 29. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-31943-8_4
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-31943-8_4
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