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The Argumentative Turn in Policy Analysis pp 79–104Cite as

Evaluating the Uncertainties

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Part of the book series: Logic, Argumentation & Reasoning ((LARI,volume 10))

Abstract

In almost any decision situation, there are so many uncertainties that we need to evaluate their importance and prioritize among them. This chapter begins with a series of warnings against improper ways to do this. Most of the fallacies described consist in programmatically disregarding certain types of decision-relevant information. The types of information that can be disregarded differ between different decisions, and therefore decision rules that exclude certain types of information should not be used. The chapter proceeds by introducing a collection of useful and legitimate rules for the evaluation and prioritization of uncertainties. These rules are divided into three major groups: rules extending the scope of what we consider, rules for evaluating each uncertainty, and rules for the comparative evaluation of uncertainties (in both moral and instrumental terms). These rules should be applied in an adaptable process that allows the introduction of new and unforeseen types of arguments.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    The highly influential WASH-1400 report in 1975 predicted that the frequency of core damages (meltdowns) would be 1 in 20,000 reactor years. We now have experience from about 15,000 reactor years, and there have been ten accidents with core damages (meltdowns), i.e. about 1 in 1500 reactor years. (There have been four reactor explosions, namely one in Chernobyl and three in Fukushima Dai-ichi, adding up to a frequency of 1 in 3750 reactor years) (Escobar Rangel and Lévêque 2014; Ha-Duong and Journé 2014; Cochran 2011).

  2. 2.

    The same problem arises when the outcome of some other tool for multicriteria decision-making, for instance sustainability analysis, is reduced to a single aggregate value.

  3. 3.

    However, as pointed out to me by Gertrude Hirsch Hadorn, the fallacy of naturalness usually tends to involve neglect of scientific information, and it can then be subsumed under the general category of neglect of decision-relevant information.

  4. 4.

    Experiences from volcanic emissions can be used to some extent, but there are important differences in chemical composition and atmospheric distribution.

  5. 5.

    This example was proposed to me by Gregor Betz.

  6. 6.

    For a more detailed discussion of this, see Hansson (2013:74–80).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Philosophy and History, Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden

    Sven Ove Hansson

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  1. Sven Ove Hansson
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Correspondence to Sven Ove Hansson .

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Philosophy and History, Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden

    Sven Ove Hansson

  2. Department of Environmental Systems Scie, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zurich, Switzerland

    Gertrude Hirsch Hadorn

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Hansson, S.O. (2016). Evaluating the Uncertainties. In: Hansson, S., Hirsch Hadorn, G. (eds) The Argumentative Turn in Policy Analysis. Logic, Argumentation & Reasoning, vol 10. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-30549-3_4

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