Abstract
Decision analysis applies a number of methods which have proven effective in remedying common shortfalls in decision making. Revelance diagrams catch missing issues and clarify the relationships among them. Decision trees handle complexity. Probability assessments capture judgment on uncertainties. Explicit problem structuring tests and develops understanding of which alternative is best and why. The results make intuitive sense and make you much more effective understanding and communicating which alternative is best and why.
If a man begin with certainties, he will end with doubts; but if he will be content to begin with doubts, he shall end in certainties.
—Francis Bacon, Advancement of Learning
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Notes
- 1.
There are methods of directly assessing the value of a case, some with a structuring process similar to the one used in assessing probabilities. However, as you might imagine, such methods run smack into the cognitive and motivational biases that problem dis-aggregation through relevance diagrams and decision trees helps to combat.
- 2.
See the discussion in Decision Analysis for the Profession (listed in the Bibliography) for more details.
- 3.
Howard Raiffa with John Richardson and David Metcalf, Negotiation Analysis: The Science and Art of Collaborative Decision Making. The Belknap Press of Harvard University Press. Cambridge, Massachusetts, and London, England: 2002.
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Celona, J. (2016). Why Decision Analysis Is the Right Solution. In: Winning at Litigation through Decision Analysis. Springer Series in Operations Research and Financial Engineering. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-30040-5_3
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-30040-5_3
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