Abstract
Managing is deciding. Today no decision is made in the insurance world without using models. Decision-makers are facing many challenges in this situation: models might evolve from entity-specific to standardized under the pressure of regulators and the lack of diversity of providers, being less relevant and trigerring unintended sheep-like behaviours. Models are good at simulating the future from the past but they fail to simulate the unexpected non-linear phenomenon. Often more than one model is used but their consistency is not guaranteed. Understanding the model is a key issue for decision-makers. Models say what a pure rational based decision should be ignoring strategy and politics, discarding the true beliefs of the person making the decision. Models could not duplicate the decision-making process; however they could be the Fifth Solvency II key function.
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Notes
- 1.
ALM: Assets & Liabilities Matching.
- 2.
GAAP: Generally Accepted Accounting Principles.
- 3.
Donald Rumsfeld made this famous statement while serving as George W. Bush’s secretary of defense: ‘As we known, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns- the ones we don’t know we don’t know.’
- 4.
Félix and Planchet (2015).
- 5.
See behavioural economists’ works.
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© 2016 Springer International Publishing Switzerland
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Bolle-Reddat, B., Dumora, R. (2016). The Role of Models in Management Decision-Making. In: Laurent, JP., Norberg, R., Planchet, F. (eds) Modelling in Life Insurance – A Management Perspective. EAA Series. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-29776-7_11
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-29776-7_11
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