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Competitive Models for the Spanish Short-Term Electricity Demand Forecasting

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Time Series Analysis and Forecasting

Part of the book series: Contributions to Statistics ((CONTRIB.STAT.))

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Abstract

The control and scheduling of the demand for electricity using time series forecasting is a powerful methodology used in power distribution systems worldwide. Red Eléctrica de España, S.A. (REE) is the operator of the Spanish electricity system. Its mission is to ensure the continuity and security of the electricity supply. The goal of this paper is to improve the forecasting of very short-term electricity demand using multiple seasonal Holt–Winters models without exogenous variables, such as temperature, calendar effects or day type, for the Spanish national electricity market. We implemented 30 different models and evaluated them using software developed in MATLAB. The performance of the methodology is validated via out-of-sample comparisons using real data from the operator of the Spanish electricity system. A comparison study between the REE models and the multiple seasonal Holt–Winters models is conducted. The method provides forecast accuracy comparable to the best methods in the competitions.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Applied Statistics, Operations Research and Quality Department, Universitat Politècnica de València, Valencia, Spain

    J. Carlos García-Díaz & Óscar Trull

Authors
  1. J. Carlos García-Díaz
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  2. Óscar Trull
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to J. Carlos García-Díaz .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. CITIC-UGR, University of Granada, Granada, Spain

    Ignacio Rojas

  2. CITIC-UGR, University of Granada, Granada, Spain

    Héctor Pomares

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García-Díaz, J.C., Trull, Ó. (2016). Competitive Models for the Spanish Short-Term Electricity Demand Forecasting. In: Rojas, I., Pomares, H. (eds) Time Series Analysis and Forecasting. Contributions to Statistics. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-28725-6_17

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