Outlook: IBSA and the Shadow of BRICS

Abstract

The final chapter provides an outlook on IBSA’s potential as a global governance actor on the basis of trends identified in the national foreign policy discourses. The like-mindedness of the IBSA states and the future deepening of trilateral IBSA relations cannot be taken for granted. Instead, for the initiative to last and prosper, it will require all partners to work towards greater convergence of their strategies for global engagement. An assessment of IBSA’s future potential needs to take into account the evolution of the broader context, especially (1) the competition by the parallel BRICS process, (2) the changes in government that have taken place since 2010, and (3) new geopolitical tensions which may lead to a change in importance assigned to IBSA in overall foreign policies of India, Brazil and South Africa. With increasing competition by the parallel process of BRICS, IBSA will have to achieve more results in terms of actually visible contributions to multilateral processes. At the same time, new geopolitical tensions may limit BRICS’ potential as a global governance actor while creating precisely the niche IBSA needed in order to consolidate. This will only be possible if the IBSA process is made more focussed. In the key area of potential joint action (development cooperation), signs of diverging trends – Brazil under Rousseff reducing development cooperation, India under Modi stepping it up – lead to caution when it comes to expectations of greater progress.