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The Future of SADC: An Investigation into the Non-political Drivers of Change and Regional Integration

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Building Climate Resilience through Virtual Water and Nexus Thinking in the Southern African Development Community

Part of the book series: Springer Water ((SPWA))

Abstract

Biophysical drivers have the potential to alter the structure of inter-state relationships. Contemporary SADC is characterized by the spatial misalignment between water and economic development. The southern countries have more diversified economies, but are also water constrained; whereas the northern countries have less economic diversification, but are water abundant. The skewed nature of regional development is an artefact of history. Global climate change could disrupt these historic trading patterns, specifically when the dry portions of the region reach the hydrological limits to their internal economic growth. This disruption has the potential to reset the trade dynamics within the SADC region, specifically as each of the more economically diverse but water-constrained member states realize that food security will have to be secured at regional rather than at national level. The same is likely to occur with water and energy security, all of which can best be optimized at regional level. The question is opened about the role that Virtual Water trade can play in such a scenario. The existence of an entity known as the Southern African Hydropolitical Complex (SAHPC) becomes relevant in this regard, because conceptually it enables the current power base of each SADC member state to be analysed.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    Some international customary law principles contained in the protocol could nevertheless be applied even under the present context.

  2. 2.

    While the trend line will be heavily influenced by the few outliers there is a general relationship between GDP and Virtual Water imported, with the exceptions being richer territorially large states (US, Canada and Australia) which are below, rich small states (UK, Mauritius) which are above and the desert countries which cannot grow their own food.

  3. 3.

    A study by Bornman et al. (2009) has shown that in a test sample of 3310 new-born male babies in the Limpopo area, 357 (10.8 % of the total sample) had various forms of urogenital birth defects. A statistical analysis of this sample revealed that a mother living in an area that was sprayed with DDT from 1995 to 2003 had a 33 % increased chance of giving birth to a male child with a urogenital birth defect. By being a homemaker and thus unemployed further increased the risks by 41 %. There are other examples such as impaired semen quality (Aneck-Hahn et al. 2007) and urogenital defects in males (Bornman et al. 2005). This has significant implications if these findings are accurate, because they become yet another driver of what is already manifesting as increased vulnerability of subsistence agriculture to Mode “D” risk.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Centre for Environmental Management, University of Free State, Bloemfontein, South Africa

    Anthony Turton

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Correspondence to Anthony Turton .

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  1. Development Facility, Hatfield Gardens, Climate Resilience Infrastructure, Pretoria, South Africa

    Anna Entholzner

  2. Development Facility, Hatfield Gardens, Climate Resilience Infrastructure, Pretoria, South Africa

    Charles Reeve

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Turton, A. (2016). The Future of SADC: An Investigation into the Non-political Drivers of Change and Regional Integration. In: Entholzner, A., Reeve, C. (eds) Building Climate Resilience through Virtual Water and Nexus Thinking in the Southern African Development Community. Springer Water. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-28464-4_3

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