Schedule Risk Analysis

Abstract

Monte Carlo simulations can be used in dynamic project scheduling to measure the sensitivity of project activities as described in article “RA5: Schedule sensitivity” on page 123 or to evaluate the accuracy of forecasting methods used in Earned Value Management (see article “PC13: Forecast accuracy” on page 236). In this article, the underlying principle used during these simulations is briefly explained and illustrated on a small example. In the example, the baseline duration of an activity must be replaced by a number generated from a predefined distribution function.