Abstract
Out of many possible families of probability distributions, some families turned out to be most efficient in practical situations. Why these particular families and not others? To explain this empirical success, we formulate the general problem of selecting a distribution with the largest possible utility under appropriate constraints. We then show that if we select the utility functional and the constraints which are invariant under natural symmetries—shift and scaling corresponding to changing the starting point and the measuring unit for describing the corresponding quantity x— then the resulting optimal families of probability distributions indeed include most of the empirically successful families. Thus, we get a symmetry-based explanation for their empirical success.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Balding, D.J., Nichols, R.A.: A method for quantifying differentiation between populations at multi-allelic loci and its implications for investigating identity and paternity. Genetica 96(1–2), 3–12 (1995)
Benjamin, B., Haycocks, H.W., Pollard, J.: The Analysis of Mortality and Other Actuarial Statistics. Heinemann, London (1980)
Bernardo, J.M., Smith, A.F.M.: Bayesian Theory. Wiley, New York (1993)
Box-Steffensmeier, J.M., Jones, B.S.: Event History Modeling: A Guide for Social Scientists. Cambridge University Press, New York (2004)
Coles, S.: An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values. Springer, Berlin (2001)
Cox, D.R.: Renewal Theory. Wiley, New York (1967)
Croxton, C.A.: Statistical Mechanics of the Liquid Surface. Wiley, New York (1980)
Dwork, C., McSherry, F., Nissim, K., Smith, A.: Calibrating noise to sensitivity in private data analysis. In: Proceedings of the Theory of Cryptography Conference TCC’2006, Springer, Heidelberg(2006)
Eltoft, T., Taesu, K., Lee, T.-W.: On the multivariate Laplace distribution. IEEE Signal Process. Lett. 13(5), 300–303 (2006)
Embrechts, P., Klüppelberg, C., Mikosch, T.: Modelling Extremal Events for Insurance and Finance. Springer, Heidelberg (2013)
Feynman, R.P., Leighton, R.B., Sands, M.: Feynman Lectures on Physics. Basic Books, New York (2011)
Fishburn, P.C.: Utility Theory for Decision Making. Wiley, New York (1969)
Fishburn, P.C.: Nonlinear Preference and Utility Theory. The John Hopkins Press, Baltimore (1988)
Gelman, A., Carlin, J.B., Stern, H.S., Vehtari, A., Rubin, D.B.: Bayesian Data Analysis. Chapman and Hall/CRC, Boca Raton (2013)
Greene, W.H.: Econometric Analysis. Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River (2011)
Gullco, R.S., Anderson, M.: Use of the Beta distribution to determine well-log shale parameters. SPE Reserv. Eval. Eng. 12(6), 929–942 (2009)
Hamming, R.W.: On the distribution of numbers. Bell Syst. Tech. J. 49(8), 1609–1625 (1970)
Haskett, J.D., Pachepsky, Y.A., Acock, B.: Use of the beta distribution for parameterizing variability of soil properties at the regional level for crop yield estimation. Agric. Syst. 48(1), 73–86 (1995)
Hecht, E.: Optics. Addison-Wesley, New York (2001)
Johnson, N.L., Kotz, S., Balakrishnan, N.: Continuous Univariate Distributions, vol. 1. Wiley, New York (1994). vol. 2 (1995)
Kosheleva, O.: Symmetry-group justification of maximum entropy method and generalized maximum entropy methods in image processing. In: Erickson, G.J., Rychert, J.T., Smith, C.R. (eds.) Maximum Entropy and Bayesian Methods, pp. 101–113. Kluwer, Dordrecht (1998)
Kotz, S., Kozubowski, T.J., Podgórski, K.: The Laplace Distribution and Generalizations: A Revisit with Applications to Communications. Economics, Engineering and Finance. Birkhauser, Boston (2001)
Kreinovich, V., Ferson, S.: A new Cauchy-based black-box technique for uncertainty in risk analysis. Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 85(1–3), 267–279 (2004)
Kreinovich, V., Nguyen, H.T., Sriboonchitta, S.: Why Clayton and Gumbel copulas: a symmetry-based explanation. In: Huynh, V.-N., Kreinovich, V., Sriboonchitta, S., Suriya, K. (eds.) Uncertainty Analysis in Econometrics, with Applications, pp. 79–90. Springer Verlag, Berlin, Heidelberg (2013)
Kurowicka, D., Cooke, R.M.: Uncertainty Analysis with High Dimensional Dependence Modelling. Wiley, New York (2006)
Kurowicka, D., Joe, H. (eds.): Dependence Modeling: Vine Copula Handbook. World Scientific, Singapore (2010)
Luce, D.R., Raiffa, H.: Games and Decisions. Introduction and Critical Survey, Wiley, New York (1957)
Malcolm, D.G., Roseboom, J.H., Clark, C.E., Fazar, W.: Application of a technique for research and development program evaluation. Oper. Res. 7(5), 646–669 (1958)
Myerson, R.B.: Game theory: Analysis of Conflict. Harvard University Press, Cambridge (1991)
Nelsen, R.B.: An Introduction to Copulas. Springer, New York (2007)
Nguyen, H.T., Kreinovich, V.: Applications of Continuous Mathematics to Computer Science. Kluwer, Dordrecht (1997)
Nguyen, H.T., Kreinovich, V., Longpré, L.: Dirty pages of logarithm tables, lifetime of the Universe, and (subjective) probabilities on finite and infinite intervals. Reliab. Comput. 10(2), 83–106 (2004)
Ohishi, K., Okamura, H., Dohi, T.: Gompertz software reliability model: estimation algorithm and empirical validation. J. Syst. Softw. 82(3), 535–543 (2009)
Parsons, J.D.: The Mobile Radio Propagation Channel. Wiley, New York (1992)
Poole, D.: Linear Algebra: A Modern Introduction. Cengage Learning, Boston (2014)
Preston, S.H., Heuveline, P., Guillot, M.: Demography: Measuring and Modeling Population Processes. Blackwell, Oxford (2001)
Rabinovich, S.G.: Measurement Errors and Uncertainties: Theory and Practice. Springer, Heidelberg (2005)
Robinson, J.C.: An Introduction to Ordinary Differential Equations. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (2004)
Sulaiman, M.Y., Oo, W.M.H., Wahab, M.A., Zakaria, A.: Application of beta distribution model to Malaysian sunshine data. Renew. Energy 18(4), 573–579 (1999)
Suppes, P., Krantz, D.M., Luce, R.D., Tversky, A.: Foundations of Measurement. Geometrical, Threshold, and Probabilistic Representations, vol. II. Academic Press, California (1989)
van Nooijen, R., Gubareva, T., Kolechkina, A., Gartsman, B.: Interval analysis and the search for local maxima of the log likelihood for the Pearson III distribution. Geophys. Res. Abstr. 10, EGU2008–A05006 (2008)
van Nooijen, R., Kolechkina, A.: In: Nehmeier, M. (ed.) Two Applications of Interval Analysis to Parameter Estimation in Hydrology. Abstracts of the 16th GAMM-IMACS International Symposium on Scientific Computing, Computer Arithmetic and Validated Numerics SCAN’2014. Würzburg, Germany, 21–26 Sept 2014, p. 161
Wiley, J.A., Herschkorn, S.J., Padian, N.S.: Heterogeneity in the probability of HIV transmission per sexual contact: the case of male-to-female transmission in penile-vaginal intercourse. Stat. Med. 8(1), 93–102 (1989)
Acknowledgments
We acknowledge the partial support of the Center of Excellence in Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Chiang Mai University, Thailand.
This work was also supported in part by the National Science Foundation grants HRD-0734825 and HRD-1242122 (Cyber-ShARE Center of Excellence) and DUE- 0926721.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2016 Springer International Publishing Switzerland
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Kreinovich, V., Kosheleva, O., Nguyen, H.T., Sriboonchitta, S. (2016). Why Some Families of Probability Distributions Are Practically Efficient: A Symmetry-Based Explanation . In: Huynh, VN., Kreinovich, V., Sriboonchitta, S. (eds) Causal Inference in Econometrics. Studies in Computational Intelligence, vol 622. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-27284-9_8
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-27284-9_8
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-27283-2
Online ISBN: 978-3-319-27284-9
eBook Packages: EngineeringEngineering (R0)