Industry

Abstract

Before we look at the design and development of the Lynx, it’s helpful to understand the industry in which the vehicle will operate. As it stands in 2016, there is no suborbital passenger industry because the very few operators out there building suborbital spacecraft still have a way to go before they can start revenue flights to suborbital altitudes. When those revenue flights may start is hard to say because operators are loathe to commit to a date. Before the SpaceShipTwo accident of October 2014, Virgin Galactic made pronouncements every few months about when passengers would be flying into space. All those predictions came to nothing and, after the SpaceShipTwo accident, Virgin’s mantra has been that they will fly when they’re good and ready. But, when the day finally rolls around on which the Lynx starts flying paying passengers, whether they be thrill-seeking tourists or serious scientists, how robust will the industry be and what bureaucratic machinations will affect that industry? We don’t know the answer to the first question because the industry has yet to take off, but an organization by the name of the Tauri Group has crunched some numbers, done some crystal-balling, and come up with what it thinks is a reasonable 10-year over-the-horizon forecast. We’ll take a look at the Tauri Group’s forecast first. In terms of administrative maneuverings that will certainly affect the industry, there exist the International Traffic on Arms Regulations (ITAR), the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), and the United States Munitions List (USML) (yes, that suborbital spacecraft you may be planning to take a trip on is classified as a weapon), which will also be discussed.