Mathematical Modelling of the Dynamics of Meningococcal Meningitis in Africa

Abstract

Every year a significant area in sub-Saharan Africa is affected by an infection with meningococcal meningitis. Large outbreaks of this disease occur every 6–14 years killing tens of thousands of people. Due to being a major public health problem, meningococcal meningitis has attracted significant attention from the perspective of disease control and prevention. At the same time, it has raised a number of fundamental questions about the disease dynamics that have to be properly understood and addressed before an efficient disease control programme can be developed and implemented. In this work, we have used mathematical models to identify crucial factors that determine the meningitis dynamics. Our results have suggested that temporary population immunity plays a very important role and has to be taken into account during disease monitoring and when measuring the efficiency of vaccines being deployed.