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Probability of Failure (Reliability) of Pipelines

  • Sviatoslav TimashevEmail author
  • Anna Bushinskaya
Chapter
Part of the Topics in Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality book series (TSRQ, volume 30)

Abstract

Consistent estimate of the probability of failure of pipeline systems plays a critical role in optimizing their operation. To prevent pipeline failures due to actively growing defects it is necessary to be able to assess the pipeline system failure-free operation probability (reliability) during a certain period, taking into account its actual level of defectiveness. This problem can be reduced to a typical prognosis problem when, using a restricted volume of data, gathered during a specific period of pipeline operation, it is required to predict the future behavior of the system in time to reach the ultimate state and, on this basis, to assess the pipeline or pipeline element reliability. The pipeline limit state comes when the burst pressure, considered as a random variable, reaches an unacceptable level, or when the defect depth, also a random variable, exceeds the predetermined limit value.

Keywords

Probability Density Function Limit State Function Pipe Material Defect Depth Building Regulation 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

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Copyright information

© Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2016

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Russian Academy of SciencesUral Federal UniversityYekaterinburgRussia

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