Abstract
Structured decision making (SDM) provides a framework for making sound decisions even when faced with uncertainty, and is a transparent, defensible, and replicable method used to understand complex problems. A hallmark of SDM is the explicit incorporation of values and science, which often includes participation from multiple stakeholders, helping to garner trust and ultimately result in a decision that is more likely to be implemented. The core steps in the SDM process are used to structure thinking about natural resources management choices, and include: (1) properly defining the problem and the decision context, (2) determining the objectives that help describe the aspirations of the decision maker, (3) devising management actions or alternatives that can achieve those objectives, (4) evaluating the outcomes or consequences of each alternative on each of the objectives, (5) evaluating trade-offs, and (6) implementing the decision. Participatory modeling for SDM includes engaging stakeholders in some or all of the steps of the SDM process listed above. In addition, participatory modeling often is crucial for creating qualitative and quantitative models of how the system works, providing data for these models, and eliciting expert opinion when data are unavailable. In these ways, SDM provides a framework for decision making in natural resources management that includes participation from stakeholder groups throughout the process, including the modeling phase.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Aalders I (2008) Modeling land-use decision behavior with Bayesian belief networks. Ecol Soc 13:16
Ascough JC II, Maier HR, Ravalico JK, Strudley MW (2008) Future research challenges for incorporation of uncertainty in environmental and ecological decision making. Ecol Model 219:383–399
Ayyub BM (2001) Elicitation of expert opinions for uncertainty and risks. CRC Press, Boca Raton
Belton V, Stewart TJ (2002) Multiple criteria decision analysis: an integrated approach. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Norwell
Blomquist SM, Johnson TD, Smith DR et al (2010) Structured decision-making and rapid prototyping to plan a management response to an invasive species. J Fish Wildl Manage 1:19–32
Brown BB (1968) Delphi process: a methodology used for the elicitation of opinions of experts. The RAND Corporation, Santa Monica
Clemen R (1996) Making hard decisions: an introduction to decision analysis. Duxbury Press, Pacific Grove
Cochrane JF, Haynes MA, Holcombe T et al (2012) Decision analysis: elicitation and facilitation. US Fish and Wildlife Service. National Conservation Training Center, Shepherdstown
Conroy MJ, Carroll JP (2009) Quantitative conservation of vertebrates. Wiley-Blackwell, Chichester
Conroy MJ, Moore CT (2001) Simulation models and optimal decision making in natural resource management. In: Shenk T, Franklin A (eds) Modeling in natural resource management: development, interpretation, and application. Island Press, Washington, pp 91–104
Conroy MJ, Peterson JT (2013) Decision making in natural research management: a structured, adaptive approach. Wiley, Chichester
Conroy MJ, Barker R, Dillingham P et al (2008) Application of decision theory to conservation management: recovery of Hector’s dolphin. Wildl Res 35:93–102
Decker DJ, Krueger CC, Baer RA Jr, Knuth BA, Richmond ME (1996) From clients to stakeholders: a philosophical shift for fish and wildlife management. Hum Dimens Wildl 1:70–82
Decker DJ, Riley SJ, Siemer WF (2012) Human dimensions of wildlife management. In: Decker DJ, Riley SJ, Siemer WF (eds) Human dimensions of wildlife management. The Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, pp 1–14
Dorazio RM, Johnson FA (2003) Bayesian inference and decision theory- a framework for decision making in natural resource management. Ecol Appl 13:556–563
Edwards W, Barron F (1994) SMARTS and SMARTER: improved simple methods for multiattribute utility measurement. Organ Behav Hum Decis Process 60:306–325
Failing L, Horn G, Higgins P (2004) Using expert judgment and stakeholder values to evaluate adaptive management options. Ecol Soc 9:13
Failing L, Gregory R, Harstone M (2007) Integrating science and local knowledge in environmental risk management: a decision-focused approach. Ecol Econ 64:47–60
Goodwin P, Wright G (2009) Decision analysis for management judgment. Wiley, Chichester
Gregory R (2000) Using stakeholder values to make smarter decisions. Environ Sci Pol Sustain Dev 42:34–44
Gregory R, Failing L (2002) Using decision analysis to encourage sound deliberation: water use planning in British Columbia, Canada. J Pol Anal Manag 21:492–499
Gregory R, Long G (2009) Using structured decision making to help implement a precautionary approach to endangered species management. Risk Anal 29:518–532
Gregory RS, Failing L, Harstone M et al (2012) Structured decision making: a practical guide to environmental management choices. Wiley-Blackwell, Chichester
Hammond JS, Keeney RL, Raiffa H (1999) Smart choices: a practical guide to making better life decisions. Broadway Books, New York
Hetes B, Richmond H, Pekar Z (2011) U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Expert Elicitation Task Force White Paper. Science and Technology Policy Council, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington
Howard RA (1966) Decision analysis: applied decision theory. In: Herty DB, Melese J (eds) Proceedings of the fourth international conference on operational methods. Wiley-Interscience, New York
Irwin BJ, Wilberg MJ, Bence JR, Jones ML (2008) Evaluating alternative harvest policies for yellow perch in southern Lake Michigan. Fish Res 94:267–281
Irwin BJ, Wilberg MJ, Jones ML, Bence JR (2011) Applying structured decision making to recreational fisheries management. Fisheries 36:113–122
Keeney RL (1992) Value-focused thinking: a path to creative decision making. Harvard University Press, Cambridge
Keeney R (2007) Developing objectives and attributes. In: Edwards W, Miles R Jr, von Winterfeldt D (eds) Advances in decision analysis: from foundations to applications. Cambridge University Press, New York, pp 104–128
Kendall WL (2001) Using models to facilitate complex decisions. In: Shenk T, Franklin A (eds) Modeling in natural resource management: development, interpretation, and application. Island Press, Washington, pp 147–170
Lauber T, Knuth B (1997) Fairness in moose management decision-making: the citizens’ perspective. Wildl Soc Bull 25:776–787
Leong K, Decker DJ, Lauber TB (2012) Stakeholders as beneficiaries of wildlife management. In: Decker D, Riley SJ, Siemer WF (eds) Human dimensions of wildlife management. The Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, pp 26–40
Maguire LA (2004) What can decision analysis do for invasive species management? Risk Anal 24:859–868
Marcot B, Holthausen R, Raphael MG et al (2001) Using Bayesian belief networks to evaluate fish and wildlife population viability under land management alternatives from an environmental impact statement. Forest Ecol Manag 153:29–42
Marcot BG, Thompson MP, Runge MC et al (2012) Recent advances in applying decision science to managing national forests. Forest Ecol Manag 285:123–132
Martin TG, Burgman MA, Fidler F et al (2012) Eliciting expert knowledge in conservation science. Conserv Biol 26:29–38
McCann RK, Marcot BG, Ellis R (2006) Bayesian belief networks: applications in ecology and natural resource management. Can J Forest Res 36:3053–3062
McGowan CP, Smith D, Sweka J et al (2011) Multispecies modeling for adaptive management of horseshoe crabs and red knots in the Delaware bay. Nat Resour Model 24:117–156
Monat JP (2009) The benefits of global scaling in multi-criteria decision analysis. Judgm Decis Mak 4:492–508
Moore JL, Runge MC (2012) Combining structured decision making and value-of-information analyses to identify robust management strategies. Conserv Biol 26:810–820
Nutt P (2004) Expanding the search for alternatives during strategic decision-making. Acad Manage Exec 18:13–28
Peterson JT, Evans JW (2003) Quantitative decision analysis for sport fisheries management. Fisheries 28(1):10–21
Ralls K, Starfield AM (1995) Choosing a management strategy: two structured decision-making methods for evaluating the predictions of stochastic simulation models. Conserv Biol 9:175–181
Reed MS (2008) Stakeholder participation for environmental management: a literature review. Biol Conserv 141:2417–2431
Riley SJ, Gregory RS (2012) Decision making in wildlife management. In: Decker DJ, Riley SJ, Siemer WF (eds) Human dimensions of wildlife management. The Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, pp 101–112
Robinson KF, Jennings CA (2012) Maximizing age-0 spot export from a South Carolina estuary: an evaluation of coastal impoundment management alternatives via structured decision making. Mar Coast Fish 4:156–172
Runge MC, Bean E, Smith DR, Kokos S (2011) Non-native fish control below Glen Canyon Dam - Report from a structured decision-making project. United States Geological Survey, Reston
Speirs-Bridge A, Fidler F, McBride M et al (2010) Reducing overconfidence in the interval judgments of experts. Risk Anal 30:512–523
Starfield AM, Roth JD, Ralls K (1995) “Mobbing” in Hawaiian monk seals (Monachus schauinslani): the value of simulation modeling in the absence of apparently crucial data. Conserv Biol 9:166–174
Susskind L, Cruikshank JL (1987) Breaking the impasse: consensual approaches to resolving public disputes. Basic Books, New York
Tyre AJ, Peterson JT, Converse SJ et al (2011) Adaptive management of bull trout populations in the Lemhi Basin. J Fish Wildl Manage 2:262–281
Williams BK (2009) Markov decision processes in natural resources management: observability and uncertainty. Ecol Model 220:830–840
Williams BK, Johnson FA (1995) Adaptive management and the regulation of waterfowl harvests. Wildl Soc B 23:430–436
Williams BK, Nichols JD, Conroy MJ (2001) Analysis and management of animal populations. Academic, San Diego
Wilson C, McDaniels T (2007) Structured decision-making to link climate change and sustainable development. Clim Pol 7:353–370
Acknowledgments
We thank M. Eaton, W. Siemer, and two anonymous reviewers for insightful comments on this chapter.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2017 Springer International Publishing Switzerland
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Robinson, K.F., Fuller, A.K. (2017). Participatory Modeling and Structured Decision Making. In: Gray, S., Paolisso, M., Jordan, R., Gray, S. (eds) Environmental Modeling with Stakeholders. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-25053-3_5
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-25053-3_5
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-25051-9
Online ISBN: 978-3-319-25053-3
eBook Packages: Earth and Environmental ScienceEarth and Environmental Science (R0)