Assessment of Tropospheric Ozone Increase in Future Climate Change Scenarios

Abstract

This work aims to assess the impact of climatological increment of temperature on the tropospheric ozone concentration in the Po Valley (Italy). Creation, destruction, and transport of ozone is not only governed by the sun, via photochemical reactions, but also by atmospheric conditions. Air quality is therefore significant, and its connection with climate change important. With a statistical downscaling of data from different General Circulation Models (GCMs), and the application of a Weather Generator (WG), it was possible to generate data series of daily temperature in the future (2021–2050). These were compared to data from the past (1961–1990, from the Agroscenari project), and the present (2000–2013, measured in six stations), showing how temperatures are bound to increase. We calibrated a simple statistical model based on a stratified sampling technique over a dataset of measured ozone and temperature, predicting the summer ozone daily maximum distribution. This allowed us to determine changes in ozone concentration over the years as a consequence of temperature increase. The results suggest that the last decade can be viewed as a projection of the future “ozone climate” in the Po Valley.