Abstract
The impact of climate change on sea salt concentration over the European seas is studied using four CTMs driven by the same global projection of future climate over the control (1990–2009) and future (2040–2059) period. This study shows how model formulation for sea salt production dependency on water surface temperature and salinity can influence surface concentrations estimations. According to this study, sea salt concentration is overall increasing between control and future periods due to expected increase of water temperature and more frequent local storms, mostly visible over the Mediterranean and Black Seas.
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Acknowledgments
This study was supported by the Nordic Council of Ministers (EnsCLIM project no: KoL-1004).
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Questioner: Paul Makar
Question: The flux formulae change between the models, but do the models use the fluxes in the same way in their formulation of the rates of change of sea salt mass? For example, do all of the models use the flux as a boundary condition on the diffusion equation?
If so, do they all have the same predicted (1) vertical resolution, (2) diffusivity coefficients, and (3) atmospheric stability?
Answer: All the models use the flux as a boundary condition on the diffusion equation. They do have different vertical resolution that may be significant for the mixing, deposition, etc. The atmospheric stability prediction is based on NWP model and turbulent diffusivity coefficients, with the latter having some differences in computation from model to model. The approach of taking multiple models is intentional, so we are aware of the differences in the description of physical processes in the different models and why we suggested the ensemble approach: a single model might be insufficient to represent, as correctly as possible, the state of the atmosphere and the sea salt aerosol flux.
Questioner: Tony Dore
Question: Have you been performing any model-measurement comparison?
Answer: Very little was show in the oral presentation about the model-measurement comparison. Nevertheless this was done with EMEP data considering sea salt concentration and deposition data available at the EBAS database (ebas.nilu.no). The comparison is done by: (i) considering only the station that are representative (75 % of the hourly data is available in an annual basis); (ii) observation and model data monthly averages are compared.
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Soares, J. et al. (2016). Impact of Climate Change on the Production and Transport of Sea Salt Aerosol on European Seas. In: Steyn, D., Chaumerliac, N. (eds) Air Pollution Modeling and its Application XXIV. Springer Proceedings in Complexity. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-24478-5_34
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-24478-5_34
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