Skip to main content

Climate Change Scenarios and Their Potential Impact on World Agriculture

  • Chapter
  • First Online:
Environmental Technology in the Oil Industry
  • 1552 Accesses

Abstract

Global and regional climate can change as a result of natural and anthropogenic factors. This chapter provides a brief synopsis of those factors, including processes that have driven historic, and present-day changes and likely future changes within the present century. Included is an overview of the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate projections, using a variety of possible future greenhouse gas concentrations (though also accounting for natural climate fluctuations). The possible implications of these changes (especially changes in temperature and precipitation) to crop growth and agriculture is then examined.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 84.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 139.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 109.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

References

  1. Atkinson T, Briffa KR, Coope (1987) Seasonal temperatures in Britain during the past 22,000 years reconstructed using beetle remains. Nature

    Google Scholar 

  2. Berger A, Loutre MF (1991) Insolation values for the climate of the last 10 million years. Quat Sci Rev 10:297–317

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. Donatelli M, Srivastava AK, Duveiller G, Niemeyer S (2012) Estimating impact assessment and adaptation strategies under climate change scenarios for crops at EU27 scale. In: Seppelt R, Voinov AA, Lange S, Bankamp D (eds) International Environmental Modelling and Sortware Society (iEMSs) 2012 international congress on Environmental Modelling and Software Managing Resources of a Limited Planet, sixth biennial meeting, Leipzig, Germany. http://www.iemss.org/society/index.php/iemss-2012-proceedings

  4. IPCC (2001) Climate change 2001: the scientific basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  5. IPCC (2007) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  6. IPCC (2001) Climate change 2001: mitigation. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  7. IPCC (2013) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  8. IPCC (2014) Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part B: regional aspects. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  9. IPCC (2014) Climate change 2014: mitigation of climate change. Contribution of working group III to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  10. Jones PD (2002) Changes in climate and variability over the last 1000 years. In: Pearce RP (ed) Meteorology at the millennium. Academic Press, San Diego, pp 133–142

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  11. Lamb HH (1977) Climate: past, present and future, vol 2. Meuthen, London

    Google Scholar 

  12. Morice CP, Kennedy JJ, Rayner NA, Jones PD (2012) Quantifying uncertainties in global and regional temperature change using an ensemble of observational estimates: the HadCRUT4 dataset. J Geophys Res 117:D08101. doi:10.1029/2011JD017187

    Google Scholar 

  13. Parry ML, Rosenzweig C, Iglesis A, Fischer G, Livermore M (1999) Climate change and world food security: a new assesment. Glob Environ Chang 8:51–67

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. O’Gorman P, Allan R, Byrne M, Previdi M (2011) Energetic constraints on precipitation under climate change (Space sciences series of ISSI), pp 253–276. doi:10.1007/978-94-007-4327-4_17

    Google Scholar 

  15. Oppenheimer C (2003) Climatic, environmental and human consequences of the largest known historic eruption: Tambora volcano (Indonesia) 1815. Prog Phys Geogr 27:230–259

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. Rampino M (2002) Threats to civilisation from impacts and super-eruptions. In: Conference proceedings of environmental catastrophes and recoveries. Brunel University, Uxbridge

    Google Scholar 

  17. Reilly J, Tubiello F, McCarl B, Mellilo J (2000) Climate change and agriculture in the United States. In: Climate change impacts on the United States: the potenial consequences of climate variability and change. Report for the U.S. Global Change research program. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  18. Van Vuuren D, Edmonds J, Kainuma M, Riahi K, Thomson A, Hibbard K, Hurtt G, Kram T, Krey V, Lamarque J-F, Masui T, Meinshausen M, Nakicenovic N, Smith S, Rose S (2011) The representative concentration pathways: an overview. Clim Change 109(1–2):5–31. doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Craig Wallace .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2016 Springer International Publishing Switzerland

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Wallace, C., Hemming, M., Viner, D. (2016). Climate Change Scenarios and Their Potential Impact on World Agriculture. In: Orszulik, S. (eds) Environmental Technology in the Oil Industry. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-24334-4_14

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics