Abstract
We present here an autonomous agent-based system tightly coupled with Geographic Information Systems (GIS). Our objective is to model a city’s dynamic in order to foresee both its urban evolution and the influence that the appearance of new settlements has on the overall electricity demand. This environment is deployed on a GIS-based Multi-Agent System platform where the geographical and communication components have been abstracted from the agent system onto the environment. The configuration model uses geographical information in order to improve the agents’ connection and perception of their surroundings. Based on the agent’s choices, we forecast urban evolution and derive the expected increment in electric consumption. We have validated our approach with real data and discuss here our conclusions.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Willis, H.: Spatial Load Forecasting. Marcel Dekker Inc., New York (1996)
Alfares, H.K., Nazeeruddin, M.: Electric load forecasting: literature survey and classification of methods. Int. J. Syst. Sci. 33(1), 23–34 (2002)
Senjyu, T., Takara, H., Uezato, K., Funabashi, T.: One-hour-ahead load forecasting using neural network. IEEE Trans. Power Syst. 17(1), 113–118 (2002)
Lai, L.L.: Intelligent System Applications in Power Engineering: Evolutionary Programming and Neural Networks. Wiley, New York (1998)
Pai, P.-F., Hong, W.-C.: Forecasting regional electricity load based on recurrent support vector machines with genetic algorithms. Electr. Power Syst. Res. 74(3), 417–425 (2005)
Farahat, M.: Long-term industrial load forecasting and planning using neural networks technique and fuzzy inference method. In: 39th International Universities Power Engineering Conference, UPEC 2004, vol. 1, pp. 368–372. IEEE (2004)
Li, Y., Muller, B.: Residential location and the biophysical environment: exurban development agents in a heterogeneous landscape. Environ. Planning B 34, 279–295 (2007)
Crooks, A., Castle, C., Batty, M.: Key challenges in agent-based modelling for geo-spatial simulation. Comput. Environ. Urban Syst. 32, 417–430 (2008)
Jordan, R., Birkin, M., Evans, A.: Agent-based simulation modelling of housing choice and urban regeneration policy. In: Bosse, T., Geller, A., Jonker, C.M. (eds.) MABS 2010. LNCS, vol. 6532, pp. 152–166. Springer, Heidelberg (2011)
Axtell, R.L., Epstein, J.M., Dean, J.S., Gumerman, G.J., Swedlund, A.C., Harburger, J., Chakravarty, S., Hammond, R., Parker, J., Parker, M.: Population growth and collapse in a multiagent model of the kayenta anasazi in long house valley. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. 99(suppl 3), 7275–7279 (2002)
Malleson, N., Heppenstall, A.J., See, L.M.: Crime reduction through simulation: an agent-based model of burglary. Comput. Environ. Urban Syst. 34(3), 236–250 (2010)
Crooks, A., Heppenstall, A.: Introduction to agent-based modelling. In: Heppenstall, A.J., Crooks, A.T., See, L.M., Batty, M. (eds.) Agent-Based Models of Geographical Systems, pp. 85–105. Springer, Netherlands (2012)
Borges, C., Penya, Y., Pijoan, A.: Agent based spatial load forecasting. In: Proceedings of 3rd International Workshop on Agent Technologies for Energy Systems (ATES 2012) held at the 11th International Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems (AAMAS 2012), Valencia, Spain, pp. 107–108. ACM press, 5 June 2012
Weyns, D., Van Dyke Parunak, H., Michel, F., Holvoet, T., Ferber, J.: Environments for multiagent systems state-of-the-art and research challenges. In: Weyns, D., Van Dyke Parunak, H., Michel, F. (eds.) E4MAS 2004. LNCS (LNAI), vol. 3374, pp. 1–47. Springer, Heidelberg (2005)
Helleboogh, A., Vizzari, G., Uhrmacher, A., Michel, F.: Modeling dynamic environments in multi-agent simulation. Auton. Agent. Multi-Agent Syst. 14(1), 87–116 (2007)
Weyns, D., Omicini, A., Odell, J.: Environment as a first class abstraction in multiagent systems. Auton. Agent. Multi-Agent Syst. 14(1), 5–30 (2007)
Steiner, R., Leask, G., Mili, R.Z.: An architecture for MAS simulation environments. In: Weyns, D., Van Dyke Parunak, H., Michel, F. (eds.) E4MAS 2005. LNCS (LNAI), vol. 3830, pp. 50–67. Springer, Heidelberg (2006)
Valckenaers, P., Sauter, J., Sierra, C., Rodriguez-Aguilar, J.A.: Applications and environments for multi-agent systems. Auton. Agent. Multi-Agent Syst. 14(1), 61–85 (2007)
Platon, E., Mamei, M., Sabouret, N., Honiden, S., Parunak, H.: Mechanisms for environments in multi-agent systems: survey and opportunities. Auton. Agent. Multi-Agent Syst. 14(1), 31–47 (2006)
Russell, S.J., Norvig, P., Canny, J.F., Malik, J.M., Edwards, D.D.: Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach. Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River (2003)
Kiesel, J., Wenkel, K.-O.: Spatial generalization methods based on the moving window approach and their applications on landscape analysis. In: Olgierd Hryniewicz, M.R.E., Studzinski J. (ed.), Shaker Verlag, pp. 619–626. Shaker Verlag (2007). ISBN: 978-3-8322-6397-3
Pijoan, A., Borges, C.: Tutorial de importación de datos de Catastro a OSM (cat2osm). In: Actas de las vi Jornadas de SIG Libre, Girona 21–23 marzo, España, Servicio de SIG y Teledetección - SIGTE - de la Universitat de Girona (2012)
Borges, C., Pijoan, A., Sorrosal, G., Oribe-García, I., González, M., Esteban, O.K.: Uso de fuentes de información geográfica voluntarias en proyectos de ingeniería. In: Actas de las vii Jornadas de SIG Libre, Girona 6–8 marzo, España, Servicio de SIG y Teledetección - SIGTE - de la Universitat de Girona (2013)
Tinsa, Precio medio del \(m^2\) por provincia (2013). http://www.elmundo.es/suvivienda/sv/tasaciones/
Gregori, M.E., Cámara, J.P., Bada, G.A.: A jabber-based multi-agent system platform. In: Proceedings of the Fifth International Joint Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems, pp. 1282–1284. ACM (2006)
Qt Company, Qt cross-platform application framework (2014). https://qt-project.org/
KDE e.V, KDE frameworks (2014). https://www.kde.org/
Agafonkin, V.: LeafletJS (2014). http://leafletjs.com/
Hyndman, R.J., Koehler, A.B.: Another look at measures of forecast accuracy. Int. J. Forecast. 22(4), 679–688 (2006)
Hyndman, R.J., Athanasopoulos, G.: Forecasting: principles and practice. OTexts (2014)
Acknowledgments
This research was partially funded by ITEA2 Nemo & Coded (ITI-20110864) and the Ph.D. grant PRE_2013_1_516 given by the Basque Government. The authors would also like to thank the reviewers for their comments and suggestions to improve this paper.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2015 Springer International Publishing Switzerland
About this paper
Cite this paper
Pijoan, A., Kamara-Esteban, O., Borges, C.E. (2015). Environment Modelling for Spatial Load Forecasting. In: Weyns, D., Michel, F. (eds) Agent Environments for Multi-Agent Systems IV. Lecture Notes in Computer Science(), vol 9068. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-23850-0_12
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-23850-0_12
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-23849-4
Online ISBN: 978-3-319-23850-0
eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)