An Airline Perspective: Current and Future Vision for Turbulence Forecasting and Reporting

Abstract

The flight planning process is the most critical time for the turbulence forecaster. It is the time that routes and altitudes are selected, and fuel is added for any necessary deviations. Aviation meteorologists can have a significant impact at this stage of flight planning. Internationally, flights are given preference for route and altitude selection based on the time the flight plan is filed. It is difficult for flights to change altitude once the flight plan has been accepted, since flights over the oceans cannot be seen on radar and have to be sequenced in space and time. If turbulence is not considered at the planning stage, altitude deviations for turbulence may not be allowed if there are other aircraft above and below the flight. Therefore, advanced knowledge of turbulence gives the advantage to the airlines that forecast turbulence accurately.

The turbulence forecaster can also provide significant value during the flight following process. Monitoring real-time satellite and weather radar observations, as well as automated aircraft and manual pilot reports, can help verify model data and identify areas of un-forecasted turbulence. This enables Human-in-the-Loop adjustments to the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models and ability to provide updates to flights while en route. A case study from 30 June 2014 over the upper Midwest USA demonstrates this process in detail.

As NWP models improve, the role of the operational aviation meteorologist will evolve. In tandem, additional insight by the research community into the current operational forecast processes is important to successfully transition to automated turbulence forecasting. Improved methods of observing and reporting turbulence, and more efficient ways of distributing and displaying the turbulence forecasts for avoidance, will be needed.