Skip to main content

Non-OPEC Producers, the Ever Fading “Peak Oil,” and the Rise of the USA

  • Chapter
OPEC in a Shale Oil World
  • 1493 Accesses

Abstract

Since the momentous era of the 1970s when oil prices rose due to geopolitical factors such as the Arab oil embargo and more assertive national oil policies, the control of what was deemed to be limited energy resources and access to a diverse supply of oil became essential to major oil consumers like the USA, China, Europe, and Japan. While each of the above consumer countries or blocs reacted in different ways to ensure both sufficient energy flows and energy “independency,” access and security of oil supply became vital elements to national security, with the USA exemplifying this policy (Cuervo 2008). However, energy “security” was also important for China, the world’s second largest consumer nation, as well as for Japan and Western Europe. Gradually the issue of energy security became a global defense security concern as illustrated by tensions between countries sharing disputed mineral-rich maritime zones, like China and Japan, China and Vietnam, Russia and the Nordic countries/Canada/USA, and the UK and Argentina. More recent maritime tensions and disputes involve Israel and Lebanon/Palestine, and Turkey and Cyprus in the Mediterranean over gas field exploration rights.

The old order changeth, yielding place to the new.

Tennyson

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 39.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 54.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 54.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

References

  • Abdulaziz bin Salman, HRH. (2014) “Keynote Speech” Presented at the Arab Gulf and Regional Challenges Forum Organized by Institute of Diplomatic Studies. Riyadh, 17 September 2014.

    Google Scholar 

  • Al Kadiri, R. (2010) “In the eye of the Beholders: Global Consumption, Uncertainties and Energy Security in the Gulf States”. In “Energy Security in the Gulf: Challenges and Prospects”. The Emirates Centre for Strategic Studies and Research. Abu Dhabi, UAE. pp 71-92.

    Google Scholar 

  • Al Naimi, A. (2014) In speech at the 10th Arab Energy Forum, Abu Dhabi, UAE on December 21, 2014.

    Google Scholar 

  • Andrews Speed, A. (2010) “Asia’s Energy Demand and Implications for the Oil-Producing Countries of the Middle East”, in “Energy Security in the Gulf: Challenges and Prospects”. The Emirates Centre for Strategic Studies and Research. Abu Dhabi, UAE. pp 137-169.

    Google Scholar 

  • Arab News. (2013) “Saudi Arabia Unconcerned by US Shale Output”. Arab News, Jeddah. 21 November 2013.

    Google Scholar 

  • Arab News. (2014a) “Al Naimi: OPEC ‘Must Combat US Shale Boom”. Arab News, Jeddah. 29 November 2014.

    Google Scholar 

  • Arab News. (2015) “Gulf Economies have failed to Diversify”. Arab News, Jeddah. 25 February 2015.

    Google Scholar 

  • Baker Hughes. (2015) “Rotary Rig Counts”. http://www.bakerhughes.com/rig-count .

  • BBC. (2015a) “US House passes Controversial Keystone Pipeline Bill”. BBC News. USA and Canada. London. 9 January 2015.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bernstein Research. (2014) “Bernstein Energy: A Good Sweating—2015 Global Upstream Capex to Collapse”. Bernstein Research, USA. 12 December 2014.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bierman, S. (2015). “ Lukoil says Aramco in talks to boost JV satke to 50 %”. Bloomberg.24 June 2015.

    Google Scholar 

  • Blas, J. (2015b) “Shale’s Resilience Vindicates Conoco Boss on Return to OPEC”. Bloomberg. 4 June 2015.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bloomberg. (2014e) “Oil at $40 Possible as Market Transforms Caracas to Tehran”. Bloomberg, 30 November 2014.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bloomberg. (2015k) “Bakken County Breakevens Illuminate Oasis Rig Allocation Plans”. Bloomberg. 8 January 2015.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bloomberg. (2015l) “OPEC’s El-Badri Speaks in Bloomberg TV Interview”. Bloomberg. 22 January 2015.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bloomberg. (2015n) “Bakken Break-Evens, Output Cast Doubts on High Cot of Drilling”. Bloomberg, 21 January 2015.

    Google Scholar 

  • BP. (2014) “Statistical Review of World Energy”. June 2014. www.bp.com .

  • BP. (2015) “Statistical Review of World Energy”. June 2015. www.bp.com .

  • Carey, G. and DiPaola, A. (2015) “Saudi Aramco Capital Investment to Drop more than Expected”. Bloomberg. 27 January 2015.

    Google Scholar 

  • Carpenter, C. (2015) “Oil Companies Slowing Capex Seen by Citi Cutting 1M b/d Surplus”. Bloomberg. 14 January 2015.

    Google Scholar 

  • Carroll, J. (2015) “Riskiest Oil Fields Crushed by Plunge—Cripple Future Growth”. Bloomberg, 8 January 2015.

    Google Scholar 

  • Cho, S. and Zhu, W. (2015) “Saudi Arabia seen giving bigger Oil Discounts to Asian Customers”. Bloomberg. 3 February 2015.

    Google Scholar 

  • Citi Research. (2015) “Alphabet Soup—L, U,V, or W? What’s the Likely Shape of the Oil Price Recovery?” Citi Research Commodities. 9 February 2015.

    Google Scholar 

  • Corrigan, P. (2010) “Editorial Cartoon”. The Toronto Star, Toronto, Canada. 1 May.

    Google Scholar 

  • Critchlow, A. (2014) “Should the US Create its own North American OPEC Oil Cartel?” Bloomberg. 9 December 2014.

    Google Scholar 

  • Cuervo, L. (2008) “OPEC from Myth to Reality”. Houston Journal of International Law. 30 (2). pp. 433-541.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dagher, A. (2014)“Unconventional Control: Impacts of Unconventional Oil and Gas in the GCC”, in Luciani, G. and Ferroukhi, “The Political Economy of Foreign Reform: The Clean Energy-Fossil Balance in the Gulf States”. Gerlach Press, Germany. pp. 59-83.

    Google Scholar 

  • Deffeyes, K. (2001) “Hubbert’s Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage”. Princeton University Press, Princeton, USA.

    Google Scholar 

  • Department of Energy. (2013) “Onshore Oil and Gas Exploration in the UK: Regulation and Best Practice”. Department of Energy and Climate Change. England. December 2013.

    Google Scholar 

  • DiPaola, A. (2015a) “US Won’t Intervene in Oil Market Amid Price Declines on Supply”. Bloomberg. 19 January 2015.

    Google Scholar 

  • DiPaola, A. (2015b) “UAE Sticks to Oil Output Boost even as Glut Pushes Prices down”. Bloomberg. 12 January 2015.

    Google Scholar 

  • Doan, L. (2015) “Shale Producers in US Cutting Rigs Loose Early Amid Oil Slump”. Bloomberg. 8 January 2015.

    Google Scholar 

  • Donilon, T. (2013) “Energy and American Power: Farewell to Declinism”. Foreign Affairs. 15 June 2013.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dunn, D.H. and McClelland, M. (2013) “Shale Gas and Revival of American Power: Debunking Decline?”. International Affairs. 89 (6). pp. 1411-28.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • El Badri, A. (2015) In speech at Middle East Oil & Gas Show, Manama, Bahrain on March 8, 2015.

    Google Scholar 

  • Emerson, S. and Winner, A. (2014) “The Myth of Petroleum Independence and Foreign Policy Isolation”. Washington Quarterly. 37 (1), Pp. 21-34.

    Google Scholar 

  • Energy Information Administration. (2011) “Annual Energy Review 2011”. US Energy Information Administration, Washington D.C., September 2012.

    Google Scholar 

  • Energy Information Administration. (2013a) “Technically Recoverable Shale Oil and Shale Gas Resources: An Assessment of 137 Shale Formations in 41 Countries outside the Untied States”. US Energy Information Administration, Washington, D.C., June 2013.

    Google Scholar 

  • Energy Information Administration. (2013b) “International Energy Outlook 2013”. US Energy Information Administration, Washington, July 2013.

    Google Scholar 

  • Energy Information Administration. (2014a) “U.S. Liquids Fuels Production Growth More Than Offsets Unplanned Supply Disruptions”. US Energy Information Administration, Washington. August 27 2014.

    Google Scholar 

  • Energy Information Administration. (2015a) “OPEC Revenues Fact Sheet”. US Energy Information Administration, Washington, USA. 31 March 2015. http://www.eia.gov/about/new/index.cfm?r=60

  • Fagan, M. (2000) “Sheikh Yamani Predicts Price Crash as Age of Oil Ends”. Daily Telegraph. London. 25 June 2000.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fattouh, B. (2014a) “Current Developments in the Oil and Natural Gas Markets and their Implications for the Energy Sector in the Arab World”. Tenth Arab Energy Conference, Abu Dhabi, UAE. 21-23 December 2014.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fattouh, B. (2014b) “The US Shale Revolution and the Changes in LPG Trade Dynamics: A Threat to the GCC?” Oxford Energy Comment, Oxford. July, 2014.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fattouh, B. and Sen, A. (2014) “China’s Rebalancing and Oil Consumption Patterns”. Oxford Energy Forum. February, Issue 95.

    Google Scholar 

  • Financial Times. (2015) “Obama sets Stage for Debate over US Oil Export Ban”. Financial Times, London. 4 January.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gould, A. (2006) “Technologies to Extend Oil Production”, in Mabro, R. (ed) (2006) “Oil in the 21st Century: Issues, Challenges and Opportunities”. Oxford University Press, UK. pp. 178-202.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gorelick, S. M. (2010) “Oil Panic and the Global Crisis: Predictions and Myths”. Wiley-Blackwell, USA.

    Google Scholar 

  • Guardian. (2015) “Russia’s Debt Downgraded to Junk by Moody’s”. The Guardian. London. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/fev/21/Russias-debt-downgraded-junk-moodys

  • Harvey, C. (2015b). New rules on disposal could affect oil producers in 2016 “Bloomberg.” Bloomberg. 23 June 2015.

    Google Scholar 

  • Horn, M.K. (2006) “Giant Oil Fields 1868-2003” in Halbouty, M, (ed) “Giant Oil and Gas Fields of the Decade 1990-1999”. AAPG Memoir, 78, 2003, Modified November 2006.

    Google Scholar 

  • Horn, M.K. (2009) www.sourcetoreservoir.com

  • Hubbert, M.K. (1971) “The Energy Resources of the Earth”. Scientific American. 225. pp. 31-41. September 2971.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hughes, David. (2013) “Drill, Baby, Drill: Can Unconventional Fuels usher a new Era in Energy Abundance?”, Post Carbon Institute, Santa Rosa, CA.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hughes, Siobhan. (2008) “Steele gives GOP Delegates New Cheer: “Drill, baby, drill” Wall Street Journal, New York, USA. 3 Sept.

    Google Scholar 

  • IEA. (2012a) “Golden Rules for a Golden Age of Gas: World Energy Outlook—Special Report on Unconventional Gas”. International Energy Agency, OECD, Paris. 12 November 2012.

    Google Scholar 

  • IEA. (2012b) “World Energy Outlook 2012”. International Energy Agency, OECD, Paris. 12 November 2012.

    Google Scholar 

  • IEA. (2013) “World Energy Outlook 2013”. International Energy Agency, OECD, Paris. 12 November 2013. www.iea.org.

  • IHS. (2015) “US Crude Oil Export Decision: Assessing the Impact of the Export Ban and Free Trade on the US Economy”. IHS Inc. https://www.ihs.com/info/0514/crude-oil.html.

  • Jadwa Investment. (2013) “The Outlook for Unconventional Oil and Gas Production: Focus on Tight Oil and Shale Gas Production Impact on Saudi Arabia”. Jadwa Investment, Riyadh. December.

    Google Scholar 

  • Jadwa Investment. (2015a) “Quarterly Oil Market Update (Q4 2014)”. Jadwa Investment. Riyadh.

    Google Scholar 

  • Jadwa Investment. (2015b) “Quarterly Oil Market Update (Q1 2015)”. Jadwa Investment. Riyadh. April 2015.

    Google Scholar 

  • Learsy, R. (2012) “NOPEC (No Oil Producing and Exporting Cartels Act) A Presidential Issues and a Test of Political Integrity”. Huffington Post, USA. 10 Sept.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lee, J. (2015) “Beware Year of the Goat in Middle East Oil Fortune”. Bloomberg. 20 February 2015.

    Google Scholar 

  • Litvan, L. (2015) “Senate Fails to Override Obama’s Veto of Keystone XL Legislation”. Bloomberg. 4 March 2015.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mahdi, W. (2015a) “Saudi Oil Exports Falls as China Cuts Back Amid Price Rout”. Bloomberg. 18 February 2015.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mahdi, W. and MacDonald, F. (2015) “Kuwait sees Crude Price Recovering, set to add more Rigs”. Bloomberg. 16 February 2015.

    Google Scholar 

  • Majid,A.H. (2014)“Technological Development in Utilizing Unconventional Resources of Gas and Oil”. Tenth Arab Energy Conference, Abu Dhabi, UAE. 21-23 December 2014.

    Google Scholar 

  • MEES. (2014) “MEES Interview with Al Naimi: “OPEC will Never Plan to Cut”. Middle East Petroleum and Economic Publications, Cyprus. 22 December 2014.

    Google Scholar 

  • Motevalli, G. (2014) “Iran Oil Minister Doubts Drop in Shale Output After OPEC Meeting” Bloomberg. 29 November 2014.

    Google Scholar 

  • Nasser, A. H, and Sabri, N.G. (2004) “Reserves and Sustainable Oil Supplies: Role of Technology and Management”. 5th International Oil Summit. Paris, France. 29 April 2004.

    Google Scholar 

  • Natarajan, S. (2015) “Oil’s Plunge Leaves $27 billion of Energy Bonds Priced for Junk”. Bloomberg, 8 January.

    Google Scholar 

  • Navarro, A, and Murtaugh, D. (2015) “Mexico Ready to take Crude ‘Tomorrow’ if US Approves Swap”. Bloomberg. 31 March 2015.

    Google Scholar 

  • Nixon, Richard (1974) “State of the Union Address 30 Jan. 1974”. http//print.infoplease.com/t/hist/state-of-the-union/187.html.

    Google Scholar 

  • Quinn, D. (2015) “US Mulls Crude Exports to Mexico, Commerce Secretary Says”. Bloomberg. 7 January.

    Google Scholar 

  • Razzouk, N. (2015) “Saudi’s Naimi, Russian Envoy Discuss OPEC, Non-OPEC Cooperation”. Bloomberg. 11 January 2015.

    Google Scholar 

  • Reuters. (2014) “Push to Relax US Oil Export Ban ends 2014 with Break Through”. Reuters. 31 December.

    Google Scholar 

  • Reuters. (2015b) “Saudi Arabia Boosts Crude Oil Production to Highest Level on Record”. Reuters. London. 8 April 2015.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rosenberg, E. (2014) “Energy Rush: Shale Production and U.S. National Security”. Centre for New American Security, Washington, D.C. February 2014.

    Google Scholar 

  • Saif, O, Mezher, T, and Arafat, H. (2014) “Water Security in the GCC Countries: Challenges and Opportunities”. Journal Environmental Studies and Sciences. 4(4), pp. 329-346. August.

    Google Scholar 

  • Salameh, M. (2012) “Changing Oil Fundamentals: Impacts on Energy Security and Global Energy Market” in “Global Energy Markets: Changes in the Strategic Landscape”. The Emirates Center for Strategic Studies and Research, Abu Dhabi, pp. 97-115.

    Google Scholar 

  • SAMA. (2013) “Forty Ninth Annual Report”. SAMA, Riyadh.

    Google Scholar 

  • SAMA. (2015) “Fifty First Annual Report 2015”. SAMA, Riyadh. June 2015.

    Google Scholar 

  • SAMBA. (2015) “Saudi Arabia Chart Book”. SAMBA Riyadh. May 2015.

    Google Scholar 

  • Simmons, M.R. (2006) “Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy”. John Wiley, USA.

    Google Scholar 

  • Simoniya, N. (2010) “The OPEC-Russia Relationship: Current Status and Future Outlook” In “Energy Security in the Gulf: Challenges and Prospects”. The Emirates Centre for Strategic Studies and Research. Abu Dhabi, UAE. pp 171-188.

    Google Scholar 

  • Smith, G. (2015a) “OPEC Cuts Forecast for US Oil Supply Growth after Price Rout”. Bloomberg. 9 February 2015.

    Google Scholar 

  • Smith, G. (2015b) “IEA Sees OPEC Supply Jumping most in Four Years on Saudi Surge”. Bloomberg. 15 April 2015.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sweetnam, G. (2008) “Long Term Global Oil Scenarios: Looking Beyond 2030”. Energy Information Administration, 7 April 2008. Energy Conference Washington, DC.

    Google Scholar 

  • Tuttle, R. (2015) “Saudi Oil Minister Discuses Market Stability with Russia, Norway”. Bloomberg. 27 January 2015.

    Google Scholar 

  • Umishek, G. (2003) “Petroleum Geology and Resources of the West Siberian Basin, Russia”. United Sates Geological Survey, Washington, Bulletin No. 2201-G.

    Google Scholar 

  • Valko, P, and Lee, W. (2010) “A Better Way to Forecast Production from Unconventional Gas Wells”. Paper Presented at the SPE Annual Technical Conference. Florence, Italy, Society of Petroleum Engineers. 134231-MS.

    Google Scholar 

  • Vietor, R. (1984) “Energy Policy in America since 1945: A Study of Business—Government Relations”. Cambridge University Press. Cambridge. UK.

    Google Scholar 

  • Weber, H. (2015) “Oil Will Recover Once Producers Quit Spending Money, Hamm Says”. Bloomberg, 28 January 2015.

    Google Scholar 

  • Westphal, K, Overhaus, M, and Steinberg, G. (2014) “The US Shale Revolution and the Arab Gulf States: The Economic and Political Impact of Changing Energy Markets”. SWP Research Paper. German Institute for International and Security Affairs. Berlin., November.

    Google Scholar 

  • White House. (2015a) “Fact Sheet: US and India Climate and Clean Energy Cooperation”. The White House, Washington, Office of the Press Secretary. 25 January 2015.

    Google Scholar 

  • Williams, P. (2015) “The $80 bn Spend that puts Shale on Shaky Ground”. Bloomberg. 11 May 2015.

    Google Scholar 

  • Yergin, D. (2011) “The Quest: Energy, Security and the Remaking of the Modern World”. Penguin Press, New York.

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhou, M. (2015b) “Oil ETF Holders Cash out First Time in 7 months on Rebound”. Bloomberg. 14 April 2015.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2015 Springer International Publishing Switzerland

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Ramady, M., Mahdi, W. (2015). Non-OPEC Producers, the Ever Fading “Peak Oil,” and the Rise of the USA. In: OPEC in a Shale Oil World. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-22371-1_4

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics