Why the NASA Approach Will Likely Fail to Send Humans to Mars for Many Decades to Come

Abstract

Mars missions are fundamentally different from lunar missions. Use of the Moon would provide some risk reduction for Mars, but not in proportion to the investment required. ISRU on the Moon is vastly different than ISRU on Mars. Despite previous work, the feasibility and cost of human missions to Mars remains murky. DRM-1 and DRM-3 pointed the way toward Mars missions in the 1990s, but these were only preliminary studies. DRA-5 emerged around 2005 providing a broad analysis of many mission options, but only a brief summary was published. As of 2014–2015, NASA adopted the Evolvable Mars Campaign. The general approach involves developing “evolutionary capabilities” but it seems likely that the EMC is just another NASA boondoggle that is based on vague and ephemeral notions using glossy viewgraphs, and a total lack of detailed engineering calculations. It will end up being scrapped for good reasons, as NASA moves on to its next long-range plan. The critical advanced technologies needed to enable human missions to Mars include aerocapture and aero-assisted entry, descent and landing, long-term cryogenic propellant storage in space and on Mars, methane-oxygen propulsion systems, nuclear reactor for surface power, radiation protection, reduced gravity mitigation, long-term life support systems, and ISRU and/or the nuclear thermal rocket. Unfortunately, NASA’s track record for developing advanced technologies to a state of maturity sufficient for use in space missions is not very good. Long, sustained, expensive technology developments are rarely carried through by NASA to completion.