Abstract
A reliable and comprehensive characterization of expected seismic ground shaking is essential to improve building codes, particularly for the protection of critical infrastructures and for land use planning. So far, one of the major problems in classical methods for seismic hazard assessment consisted in the adequate characterization of the attenuation models, which may be unable to account for the complexity of the medium and of the seismic sources and are often weakly constrained by the available observations. Current computational resources and physical knowledge of the seismic waves generation and propagation processes allow nowadays for viable numerical and analytical alternatives to the use of attenuation relations. Accordingly, a scenario-based approach to seismic hazard assessment has been developed, namely the neo-deterministic approach (NDSHA), which allows considering a wide range of possible seismic sources as the starting point for deriving scenarios by means of full waveforms modelling. The method does not make use of attenuation relations and, thanks to advanced computational infrastructures, permits to carry on parametric analysis and stability tests that contribute characterizing the related uncertainties, as well as to fill in the unavoidable gaps in available observations. Results from preliminary application of NDSHA method to regional scale seismic hazard assessment (ground motion at bedrock) and tsunami scenarios modelling for the Gujarat territory are illustrated. The resulting estimates are compared with available information about intensities from past earthquakes, as well as with recently developed probabilistic seismic hazard map of Gujarat.
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Acknowledgements
The results shown in this work have been obtained within the project “Definition of seismic hazard scenarios and microzoning by means of Indo-European e-infrastructures” funded by Regione autonoma Friuli Venezia Giulia in the framework of the interventions aimed at promoting, at regional and local level, the cooperation activities for development and international partnership (Progetti Quadro, L.R. 19/2000). For the tsunami computations, the work has been supported by the RITMARE Flagship Project funded by Italian Ministry of University and Research.
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Magrin, A. et al. (2016). Neo-deterministic Definition of Seismic and Tsunami Hazard Scenarios for the Territory of Gujarat (India). In: D'Amico, S. (eds) Earthquakes and Their Impact on Society. Springer Natural Hazards. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-21753-6_7
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