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Below-Replacement Fertility in Japan: Patterns, Factors, and Policy Implications

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Low and Lower Fertility

Abstract

Japan has experienced two fertility transitions, the first a decline from high to the replacement level of about 2.1 children per woman shortly after World War II and the second a decline since the mid-1970s from replacement to very low total fertility rates (TFR) of 1.3–1.4 children per woman. While the first transition stemmed primarily from declining rates of childbearing among married couples, the second transition has been related almost entirely to the postponement of marriage and childbearing. And it now looks like substantial numbers of Japanese women and men will never marry and will remain childless. Improved education and labor-market opportunities for young women, combined with decreasing regular employment for young men, is likely leading to the postponement or avoidance of marriage. In addition, the combination of rising economic opportunities in the workplace and unequal gender relations at home make the traditional marriage package particularly unattractive for young Japanese women. Concerned about very low fertility and rapid population aging, the Japanese government has introduced various family policies and programs since the early 1990s. These consist of three major components: (1) childcare services; (2) parental leave schemes; and (3) monetary assistance in the form of child allowances. Despite these efforts, Japan’s family policy appears to have been largely ineffective in the sense that strains, especially on working mothers, have not been alleviated and fertility has remained very low.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    An exception was 1966, a year of hinoe-uma (fire horse) when TFR declined temporarily to 1.6 per woman. A year of hinoe-uma occurs every 60 years according to the Chinese zodiacal calendar. Fire-horse years were traditionally regarded as an unlucky years to give birth to a girl because girls born in such a year were believed to be stubborn and thus would find it difficult to attract a husband.

  2. 2.

    The SMAM is an estimate of the average number of years lived by a cohort of persons before their first marriage. For specifics on this indicator of the timing of first marriage, see Hajnal (1953).

  3. 3.

    Mean ages at first marriage can also be calculated directly from the registration of marriages, available for Japan since 1899. Based on this data source, the average age at first marriage rose between 1975 and 2010 from 24.7 to 28.8 for women and from 27.0 to 30.5 for men (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research 2014, p. 103).

  4. 4.

    Delayed marriage has also occurred widely in other East and Southeast Asian countries in recent years. See Jones (1997, 2004).

  5. 5.

    Education through junior high school (9 years of schooling) is compulsory in Japan. Junior-high-school enrollment has been almost universal since World War II (Monbu-kagaku-sho 2012).

  6. 6.

    South Korea also has a low level of men’s domestic contribution, similar to Japan’s. The average contribution of Korean men to time spent on housework and childcare rose modestly from 11 % in 1990 to 17 % in 2004. For details, see Tsuya (2010).

  7. 7.

    For specifics of the 1994, 2000, and 2009 surveys, see Tsuya and Bumpass (2004), Rindfuss et al. (2004), and Tsuya et al. (2013a), respectively.

  8. 8.

    For more detailed information, see Tsuya et al. (2013a).

  9. 9.

    According to the medium fertility and mortality variants in Japan’s latest official population projection, the country’s population is projected to decrease from 128 million in 2010 to around 87 million by 2060. In that year, roughly 40 % of Japan’s population will be age 65 and above (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research 2012a).

  10. 10.

    The Japan Ministry of Health, Labour, and Welfare has conducted a survey on the availability of childcare services (Hoikusho Nyusho Taiki-jido-su Chosa) annually since 1994. The survey is based on reports from municipal governments on childcare centers (both public and private) in their jurisdictions.

  11. 11.

    Under the 2009 revision of the law, the duration of leave can be extended to 14 months when both parents take parental leave together (rather than one parent taking leave alone). The duration of leave can be further extended up to 18 months under certain circumstances such as the lack of available slots at childcare centers or when a parent who is the primary caregiver becomes unable to care for the child due to illness, injury, or marital dissolution. For more specifics, see Kosei-rodo-sho (2010b, 2013b).

  12. 12.

    While the parental leave scheme is national, municipal governments are responsible for the handling/management of monetary provisions.

  13. 13.

    The survey draws its sample from organizations with at least five employees. Since organizations with less than five workers are excluded from the survey, the proportion of organizations that have specific rules on parental leave, as reported by the survey, likely overestimates the degree of compliance with the law.

  14. 14.

    Since the Basic Survey on Equal Employment, from which this information is drawn, excludes organizations with less than five employees (a high proportion of which are most likely not complying with the legal requirement to offer parental leave to all eligible workers), survey results very likely overestimate the proportion of eligible mothers who actually take parental leave.

  15. 15.

    Greece had the lowest scores.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Economics, Keio University, Minato-ku, Tokyo, Japan

    Noriko O. Tsuya

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  1. Noriko O. Tsuya
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Correspondence to Noriko O. Tsuya .

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Sociology and Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina, CHAPEL HILL, North Carolina, USA

    Ronald R. Rindfuss

  2. East-West Center, Honolulu, Hawaii, USA

    Minja Kim Choe

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Tsuya, N.O. (2015). Below-Replacement Fertility in Japan: Patterns, Factors, and Policy Implications. In: Rindfuss, R., Choe, M. (eds) Low and Lower Fertility. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-21482-5_5

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