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Property Valuations in Times of Crisis: Artificial Neural Networks and Evolutionary Algorithms in Comparison

  • Francesco Tajani
  • Pierluigi MoranoEmail author
  • Marco Locurcio
  • Nicola D’Addabbo
Conference paper
Part of the Lecture Notes in Computer Science book series (LNCS, volume 9157)

Abstract

In the current economic situation, characterized by a high uncertainty in the appraisal of property values, the need of “slender” models able to operate even on limited data, to automatically capture the causal relations between explanatory variables and selling prices and to predict property values in the short term, is increasingly widespread. In addition to Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), that satisfy these prerogatives, recently, in some fields of Civil Engineering an hybrid data-driven technique has been implemented, called Evolutionary Polynomial Regression (EPR), that combines the effectiveness of Genetic Programming with the advantage of classical numerical regression. In the present paper, ANN methods and the EPR procedure are compared for the construction of estimation models of real estate market values. With reference to a sample of residential apartments recently sold in a district of the city of Bari (Italy), two estimation models of market value are implemented, one based on ANN and another using EPR, in order to test the respective performance. The analysis has highlighted the preferability of the EPR model in terms of statistical accuracy, empirical verification of results obtained and reduction of the complexity of the mathematical expression.

Keywords

Property valuations Artificial neural networks Evolutionary polynomial regression Genetic algorithms Estimative analysis Market value 

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Copyright information

© Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2015

Authors and Affiliations

  • Francesco Tajani
    • 1
  • Pierluigi Morano
    • 1
    Email author
  • Marco Locurcio
    • 2
  • Nicola D’Addabbo
    • 2
  1. 1.Department of Science of Civil Engineering and ArchitecturePolytechnic of BariBariItaly
  2. 2.Department of Architecture and DesignUniversity “Sapienza”RomeItaly

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