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Bayesian Model Selection Methods and Their Application to Biological ODE Systems

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Uncertainty in Biology

Part of the book series: Studies in Mechanobiology, Tissue Engineering and Biomaterials ((SMTEB,volume 17))

Abstract

In this chapter, we focus on Bayesian model selection for biological dynamical systems. We do not present an overview over existing methods, but showcase their comparison and the application to ordinary differential equation (ODE) systems, as well as the inference of the parameters in the ODE system. For this, our method of choice is the Bayes factor, computed by Thermodynamic Integration. We first present several model selection methods, both alternatives to the Bayes factor as well as several methods for calculating the Bayes factor, foremost among them said Thermodynamic Integration. As a simple example for the selection problem, we resort to a choice between normal distributions, which is analytically tractable. We apply our chosen method to a medium sized ODE model selection problem from radiation science and demonstrate how predictions can be drawn from the model selection results.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Computational Biology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, Neuherberg, Germany

    Sabine Hug & Fabian J. Theis

  2. Department of Mathematics, Technische Universität München, Garching, Germany

    Sabine Hug & Fabian J. Theis

  3. Institute of Bioinformatics and Systems Biology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, Neuherberg, Germany

    Daniel Schmidl

  4. Research Unit Medical Radiation Physics and Diagnostics, Helmholtz Zentrum München, Neuherberg, Germany

    Wei Bo Li & Matthias B. Greiter

Authors
  1. Sabine Hug
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  2. Daniel Schmidl
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  3. Wei Bo Li
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  4. Matthias B. Greiter
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  5. Fabian J. Theis
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Fabian J. Theis .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Biomechanics Research Unit, University of Liège, Liège 1, Belgium

    Liesbet Geris

  2. Center for Molecular Medicine, Karolinska University Hospital, Stockholm, Sweden

    David Gomez-Cabrero

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The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

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Hug, S., Schmidl, D., Li, W.B., Greiter, M.B., Theis, F.J. (2016). Bayesian Model Selection Methods and Their Application to Biological ODE Systems. In: Geris, L., Gomez-Cabrero, D. (eds) Uncertainty in Biology. Studies in Mechanobiology, Tissue Engineering and Biomaterials, vol 17. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-21296-8_10

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-21296-8_10

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  • Publisher Name: Springer, Cham

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  • Online ISBN: 978-3-319-21296-8

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