Abstract
Good afternoon and welcome. For the record, let me say today is May 28, 2010. My name is Chris Starmer, and I am the moderator of this Witness Seminar on the Emergence and Evolution of Experimental Economics. The event is organized by Harro Maas and Andrej Svorenčík, and funded by the Dutch Science Foundation. We are at the premises of the Royal Dutch Academy, and together with me are, from my right, participants Frans van Winden, John Ledyard, Jim Friedman, Charlie Holt, Vernon Smith, John Kagel, Betsy Hoffman, Reinhard Selten, Charlie Plott, Al Roth, and Stephen Rassenti. Welcome to all. During the event, my plan is, over a number of sessions, to explore with you four broad topics.
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Notes
- 1.
The official name of the Dutch Science Foundation is The Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research, the full title of the KNAW is The Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences, or Koninklijke Nederlandse Akademie van Wetenschappen. It is housed at the Trippenhuis, Kloveniersburgwal 29, in Amsterdam. The seminar took place in The Old Meeting Room located on the first floor of the Trippenhuis Building with views out on the canal. The adjacent Rembrandt Room (so named because Rembrandt’s famous Nightwatch covered one of its walls) was used for breaks.
- 2.
A twelfth participant Reinhard Tietz, a German experimental economist, was unable to attend the Witness Seminar due to an illness.
- 3.
Friedman’s dissertation was titled The Theory of Oligopoly. An abridged version was published in: Friedman, James W. 1963. “Individual Behavior in Oligopolistic Markets: An Experimental Study.” Yale Economic Essays, 3(2), 359–417.
- 4.
In the same year F. Trenery Dolbear, now at Brandeis University, also graduated from Yale. An abridged version was published in: Dolbear, F. Trenery. Ibid. “Individual Choice under Uncertainty: An Experimental Study.” 419–69.
- 5.
Smith, Vernon L. 1962c. “An Experimental Study of Competitive Market Behavior.” The Journal of Political Economy, 70(2), 111–37. And a correction ____. 1962a. “Errata: An Experimental Study of Competitive Market Behavior.” The Journal of Political Economy, 70(3), 322–23.
- 6.
Mosteller, Frederick and Philip Nogee. 1951. “An Experimental Measurement of Utility.” Ibid.59(5), 371–404.
- 7.
Fouraker, Lawrence E. and Sidney Siegel. 1963. Bargaining Behavior. New York: McGraw-Hill.
- 8.
Siegel, Sidney; Lawrence E. Fouraker and Donald I. Harnett. 1961. Bargaining Behavior. Volume 1. The Uses of Information and Threat by Bilateral Monopolists of Unequal Strength. Pennsylvania State University. Fouraker, Lawrence E. and Sidney Siegel. 1961. Bargaining Behavior. Volume 2. Experiments in Oligopoly. Pennsylvania State University.
- 9.
Both Friedman and Selten attended a dinner the night before the seminar. The other attendees were Marcia Friedman, Charlie Holt with wife Martha Ann Talman, Betsy Hoffman, John and Harriette Kagel, John Ledyard, Harro Maas, Andreas Ortmann, Charlie and Marianna Plott, Stephen Rassenti, Vernon and Candace Smith, and Andrej Svorenčík.
- 10.
Editor: Is this a reference to Selten and Harsayni’s work that led to their joint Nobel Prize? Jim Friedman: “No, I only meant that Reinhard and John clicked professionally in a way that John and I did not. John and I talked regularly, but we didn’t get into any collaborative work and I don’t think either of us had any significant impact on the other.”
- 11.
Selten spent the academic year 1967–68 as a Visiting Full Professor at School of Business Administration, University of California at Berkeley. He met Harsanyi in 1961 when visiting Oskar Morgenstern, a good friend of his advisor Heinz Sauermann, in Princeton.
- 12.
A course of study for graduate and advanced undergraduate students, conducted in a manner of a seminar.
- 13.
Selten wrote his master’s thesis in 1957.
- 14.
Editor: Do you remember which papers did you read? Reinhard Selten: “I have read the seminal papers:” Simon, Herbert A. 1955. “A Behavioral Model of Rational Choice.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 69(1), 99–118. and ____. 1956. “Rational Choice and the Structure of the Environment.” Psychological review, 63(2), 129–38., both reprinted in ____. 1957. Models of Man: Social and Rational; Mathematical Essays on Rational Human Behavior in Society Setting. New York: Wiley.
- 15.
Ricciardi, Franc M. 1957. Top Management Decision Simulation: The A.M.A. Approach. New York: American management association.
- 16.
Kalisch, Gerhard K.; J. W. Millnor; John F. Nash and E. D. Nering. 1954. “Some Experimental N-Person Games,” R. M. Thrall, C. H. Coombs and R. L. Davis, Decision Processes. New York: Wiley, 513–18.
- 17.
Selten’s dissertation: Selten, Reinhard. 1961. “Bewertung Von N-Personenspielen,” Frankfurt: Johann Wolfgang Goethe-Universität Frankfurt am Main.
- 18.
Selten, Reinhard and Heinz Sauermann. 1959. “Ein Oligopolexperiment.” Zeitschrift für die gesamte Staatswissenschaft, 115, 427–71. Reprinted in Sauermann, Heinz. 1967. Beiträge zur Experimentellen Wirtschaftsforschung. Tübingen: Mohr., pp. 9–59.
English Translation Sauermann, Heinz and Reinhard Selten. 1960. “An Experiment in Oligopoly,” General Systems, Yearbook of the Society for General Systems Research. Ann Arbor, MI: Society for General Systems, 85–114, 206.
- 19.
Thurstone, Leon L. 1931. “The Indifference Function.” Journal of Social Psychology, 2, 139–67.
- 20.
Editor: Were you aware of agricultural experiments or time and motion studies? Reinhard Selten: “I knew of agricultural studies and time studies but I did not think of them as part of experimental economics. I understood experimental economics as aiming at the advancement of economic theory by the observation and analysis of the behavior of economically motivated subjects in laboratory or field experiments. I still think that this is a reasonable definition. It seemed to me, that the agricultural experiments and time studies, I knew of, did not contribute to the advancement of economic theory.”
- 21.
The character Dr. Mabuse, a supervillain and a master of hypnosis, was introduced first in a novel Dr. Mabuse, the Gambler by Norbert Jacques in 1919 and featured in several popular movies.
- 22.
The slogan of 1961 campaign of the incumbent German government party was “Auch heute keine Experimente, CDU” [No experiments today either, the Christian Democratic Union].
- 23.
Editor: Were the doubts about experiments you mention explicitly phrased in terms of external validity at that time? Reinhard Selten: “We got letters from people to whom we sent discussion papers which expressed such doubts. However, they did not use the term “external validity.” I do not remember when I first encountered this term but it was certainly only much later.”
- 24.
Smith was invited to the first, second, and third International Conference on Experimental Economics that took place in 1971, 1977, and 1982 respectively as evidenced in Smith, Vernon L. “Smith Papers,” Vernon Lomax Smith Papers. David M. Rubenstein Rare Book and Manuscript Library, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina.
- 25.
Editor: Were you aware of agricultural experiments, field experiments such as the negative income tax? Vernon Smith: “I knew of the agricultural production experiments designed to measure input substitution in the production of crops, milk, and so on, and it always had seemed to me the natural way to approach supply as well as demand issues. An important paper that I read and assigned in class was Heady, Earl O. 1957. “An Econometric Investigation of the Technology of Agricultural Production Functions.” Econometrica, 25(2), 249–68. This paper would have appeared a year and a half after I started doing experiments in January 1956. Iowa State University had been an important center for this development.”
- 26.
This is the paper that was sent to the participants in advance of the seminar to stimulate their memories.
- 27.
Rousseas, Stephen W. and Albert G. Hart. 1951. “Experimental Verification of a Composite Indifference Map.” The Journal of Political Economy, 59(4), 288–318.
- 28.
Morgenstern’s book was mentioned in Ortmann’s paper. Morgenstern, Oskar. 1963. On the Accuracy of Economic Observations. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press. (revision of the first edition from 1950).
- 29.
Editor: What other literature did you use? Vernon Smith: “The working papers included other authors, prominently Martin Shubik who knew and worked with Sid Siegel, and Sid’s student Don Harnett. The final Fouraker Siegel book (1963) was published after Sid’s untimely death at age 45 in 1962; it incorporated the work of Martin and Don from the working papers. Martin had worked with Sid and Larry Fouraker on the Cournot oligopoly experiments. Siegel and Harnett on the experiments using GE executives as subjects in their replication of the bargaining experiments. All are credited in the preface by Larry, but none survived as co-authors which I thought was ungenerous having used all the material in classes before it was published. Martin and Sid had a large agenda for further work that would have been path breaking at the time and established experimental economics much more prominently in the 1960s and 70s, but ended with Sid’s death. People today have no idea of Sid’s energy and depth.”
- 30.
Edwards, Ward. 1954. “Variance Preferences in Gambling.” The American Journal of Psychology, 67(3), 441–52.
- 31.
Editor: I wonder whether you interacted with Ward Edwards during your stay at USC in the academic year 1974/75. Vernon Smith: “Yes, I did. We got together sometime in that period, and I attended probably 2–3 of his Behavior Decision Theory conferences over in the valley in the 1970s, probably then, but also after I went to Arizona. I have long thought that the important early contributions of Edwards (whose father was a known economist) and Anatol Rapoport deserved more recognition. They were the pioneers that trained and created the generation of psychologists who (e.g. Slovic, Lichtenstein) did what was to be called Behavioral Economics.”
- 32.
Siegel, Sidney and Lawrence E. Fouraker. 1960. Bargaining and Group Decision Making; Experiments in Bilateral Monopoly. New York: McGraw-Hill.
- 33.
Frank Trenery Dolbear Jr. received his Ph.D. in Economics from Yale in 1963. He spent the next three years at Carnegie Institute of Technology. Since 1968 he has been at Brandeis University. He was active in experimental research only in the 1960s.
- 34.
Carnegie Institute of Technology became Carnegie Mellon University in 1967.
- 35.
Dolbear, F. Trenery and Lester B. Lave. 1966. “Risk Orientation as a Predictor in the Prisoner's Dilemma.” The Journal of Conflict Resolution, 10(4), 506–15, Lave, Lester B. 1962. “An Empirical Approach to the Prisoners’ Dilemma Game.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 76(3), 424–36, ____. 1960. An Empirical Description of the Prisoner's Dilemma Game. Santa Monica, Calif.: Rand Corporation, ____. 1965. “Factors Affecting Co-Operation in the Prisoner's Dilemma.” Syst. Res. Behavioral Science, 10(1), 26–38.
- 36.
See for instance correspondence from 1965 and Smith evaluation of Lave’s experimental work from 1969. Smith, Vernon L. “Smith Papers,” Vernon Lomax Smith Papers. David M. Rubenstein Rare Book and Manuscript Library, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina.
- 37.
In July 1968 Austin Hoggatt together with John T. Wheeler directed the Workshop in Experimentation in Management Science at University of California, Berkeley. Friedman attended for one month. See for instance, Hughes, G. David and Philippe A. Naert. 1970. “A Computer-Controlled Experiment in Consumer Behavior.” The Journal of Business, 43(3), 354–72.
- 38.
In an autobiographical essay Starbuck details his experience with experimental work in economics and psychology, influence of Simon and Cyert and his involvement in designing computerized social science laboratories (1967): Starbuck, William H. 1993. “‘Watch Where You Step!’ Or Indiana Starbuck Amid the Perils of Academe (Rated PG),” Management Laureates: A Collection of Autobiographical Essays. Greenwich, Connecticut; London, England: JAI Press, 63–110. See also Cyert, R. M.; J. G. March and W. H. Starbuck. 1961. “Two Experiments on Bias and Conflict in Organizational Estimation.” Management Science, 7(3), 254–64. Starbuck, William H. and Frank M. Bass. 1967. “An Experimental Study of Risk-Taking and the Value of Information in a New Product Context.” The Journal of Business, 40(2), 155–65. For the joint work with Vernon Smith on a laboratory at Purdue see Chapter 6, Footnote 8.
- 39.
Plott was at Purdue from 1965 until 1971.
- 40.
Reed, Harvey Jay. 1973. “An Experimental Study of Equilibrium in a Competitive Market,” Purdue University, Plott and Carl H. Castore were on Reed’s committee.
- 41.
Paper presented “An Unsuccessful Attempt to Experimentally Discredit the Law of Supply and Demand” (with H. Reed), Western Economics Association Meeting, Las Vegas, 1974.
Editor: When did you find this out? Charlie Plott: “I found that out in 1973 when I had a student attempt to replicate Harvey’s experiments. Much later I published a paper that discussed the matter and introduced the concept of “reparameterization” as a way to understand and interpret the data as actually supporting the theory that the experiments were originally intended to explore.”
- 42.
Editor: Why were Reed’s procedures embarrassing? Charlie Plott: “The procedures he used are now known to create market inefficiencies. He was conducting a market experiment following Vernon’s work when I was still at Purdue, probably somewhere near 1970. Harvey had an environment with two units and the appropriate way to induce the incentives was not developed until my work with Fiorina and the proper way to conduct the double auction when individuals could trade multiple units was not developed until my much later work with Vernon.”
- 43.
The exact dates remain unclear, but dating to 1970–1971 seems as more precise.
- 44.
Robert’s Rules of Order is a set of rules for running meetings and conferences.
- 45.
After moving to Caltech in 1971.
- 46.
Smith visited Caltech, where he received his undergraduate degree in 1949, as a Fairchild Scholar in the academic year 1973–74. Bill Riker was also in residence.
- 47.
Hoffman earned her Ph.D. in history from University of Pennsylvania in 1972. The dissertation was entitled “The Sources of Mortality Changes in Italy since Unification.” It later appeared in book form Hoffman, Elizabeth. 1981. The Sources of Mortality Changes in Italy since Unification. New York: Arno Press.
- 48.
Hoffman, Elizabeth. 1979. “Essays in Optimal Resource Allocation under Uncertainty with Capacity Constraints,” Pasadena: California Institute of Technology.
- 49.
Editor: The chronology does not seem correct. Betsy Hoffman: “It was the third quarter of my second year. I wrote my dissertation the next year and graduated in 3 years.”
- 50.
Roth studied at Stanford between 1971 and 1974.
- 51.
Kalisch, Gerhard K.; J. W. Millnor; John F. Nash and E. D. Nering. 1954. “Some Experimental N-Person Games,” R. M. Thrall, C. H. Coombs and R. L. Davis, Decision Processes. New York: Wiley, 513–18.
- 52.
Roth moved to the University of Illinois in 1974 and remained until 1982.
- 53.
This is the already mentioned seminal paper Fiorina, Morris P. and Charles R. Plott. 1978. “Committee Decisions under Majority Rule: An Experimental Study.” The American Political Science Review, 72(2), 575–98. and Isaac, Mark R. and Charles R. Plott. 1978. “Cooperative Game Models of the Influence of the Closed Rule in Three Person, Majority-Rule Committees: Theory and Experiment,” P. Ordeshook, Game Theory and Political Science. New York: NUY Press, NA.
- 54.
Published privately in 1962 as Princeton University, Conference. 1961. “Recent Advances in Game Theory; Papers Delivered at a Meeting of the Princeton University Conference, October 4–6, 1961,” Recent advances in game theory. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press. The introduction was written by Maschler. Contributions were made by Morgenstern, Vickrey, Fouraker, Suppes, Afriat, Aumann, Shapley and many others.
- 55.
Maschler, Michael. 1972. “Equal Share Analysis of Characteristic Function Experiments,” H. Sauermann, Contributions to Experimental Economics = Beiträge zur Experimentellen Wirtschaftsforschung. Tübingen: Mohr, 130–65.
It was based on an 1965 working paper ____. 1965. Playing an N-Person Game, an Experiment. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University, Econometric Research Program Research Memorandum No. 73.
- 56.
____. 1978. “Playing an N-Person Game: An Experiment,” H. Sauermann, Bargaining Behavior. Contributions to Experimental Economics = Beiträge zur Experimentellen Wirtschaftsforschung. Tübingen: Mohr, 231–328.
- 57.
Kagel started at Purdue in 1967 and he received his doctorate in 1970.
- 58.
May, Kenneth O. 1954. “Intransitivity, Utility, and the Aggregation of Preference Patterns.” Econometrica, 22(1), 1–13.
- 59.
Ayllon, Teodoro and Nathan H. Azrin. 1968. The Token Economy; a Motivational System for Therapy and Rehabilitation. New York: Appleton-Century-Crofts, Kagel, John H. 1972. “Token Economies and Experimental Economics.” Journal of Political Economy, 80(4), 779–85.
- 60.
Battalio, Raymond C.; Edwin B. Fisher; John H. Kagel; Robert L. Basmann; Robin C. Winkler and Leonard Krasner. 1974. “An Experimental Investigation of Consumer Behavior in a Controlled Environment.” Journal of Consumer Research, 1(2), Battalio, Raymond C.; John H. Kagel; Robin C. Winkler; Edwin B. Fisher; Robert L. Basmann and Leonard Krasner. 1973. “A Test of Consumer Demand Theory Using Observations of Individual Consumer Purchases.” Economic Inquiry, 11(4), 411–28.
- 61.
Kagel, John H.; Raymond C. Battalio; Howard Rachlin; Leonard Green; Robert L. Basmann and W. R. Klemm. 1975. “Experimental Studies of Consumer Demand Behavior Using Laboratory Animals.” Ibid.13(1), 22–38.
- 62.
This could be the 1975 AEA session which was, however, not organized by Shubik but by Gary Becker.
- 63.
The earliest letter from Charlie Plott to John Kagel is from January 1977, and Battalio from June 1974. Plott, Charles R. “Plott Papers,” personal archive of Charles Plott. California Institute of Technology,
- 64.
Radford, R. A. 1945. “The Economic Organization of P.O.W. Camps.” Economica, 12, 189–201.
- 65.
That was in the academic year 1970–71, just before Plott left for Caltech.
- 66.
The voting paradox or Condorcet's paradox is a situation in which collective preferences can be cyclic (i.e. not transitive), even if the preferences of individual voters are not.
- 67.
Reference to non-cooperative game theory. See earlier statement by Plott. For a discussion of the dominance relation see Plott, Charles R. 1976. “Axiomatic Social Choice Theory: An Overview and Interpretation.” American Journal of Political Science, 20(3), 511–96.
- 68.
In fact, Castore and Murnighan published a study based on their LP experiments. However, they did not investigate intransitivities to any extent. Castore, Carl H. and J. Keith Murnighan. 1978. “Determinants of Support for Group Decisions.” Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 22(1), 75–92.
Earlier versions appeared in 1972–3 as working papers Castore, Carl H. 1972. Intragroup Concordance and the Effectiveness of Majority Rule Decisions. Ft. Belvoir: Defense Technical Information Center. Purdue Univ Lafayette, Castore, Carl H. and J. Keith Murnighan. 1973. Decision Rule and Intragroup Goal Concordance as Determinants of Individual Reactions to and Group Decisions. Ft. Belvoir: Defense Technical Information Center. Purdue Univ Lafayette.
- 69.
The location of Lloyd’s experiment was Postville, Newfoundland, in Canada, but he considered other locations as well. This research was published only posthumously under the title Northern Store Project. Lloyd, Cliff. 1980. The Collected Works of Cliff L. Lloyd. Burnaby, B.C.: School of Business Administration and Economics, Simon Fraser University.
- 70.
Editor: I have not found any evidence for this so far. Charlie Plott: “The first experimental paper I gave at a professional meeting was placed in a section of education. It might be noted that in the 1960’s and perhaps today, there was a healthy use of hands on methods to demonstrate economics but it was not viewed as experiments. Some of the economists who were focused on economics education were at Purdue.”
- 71.
Editor: Where did you have your interviews? Betsy Hoffman: “I interviewed at Arizona, Swarthmore, Washington, Iowa, Ohio State, Northwestern, and Boston College. I had more scheduled, but cancelled the rest when I got offers from Northwestern and Swarthmore, my top choices.”
- 72.
Ledyard was a Fairchild scholar at Caltech in the academic year 1977/78.
- 73.
Hoffman, Elizabeth. 1981. The Sources of Mortality Changes in Italy since Unification. New York: Arno Press.
- 74.
Hoffman came up for a third year review in the fall of 1981.
- 75.
Editor: Who was it then? Betsy Hoffman: “Actually it was Dale Mortensen.”
- 76.
Rassenti, Stephen. 1982. “Zero/One Decision Problems with Multiple Resource Constraints Algorithms and Applications,” Systems and Industrial Engineering. University of Arizona.
- 77.
Editor: Did you know him, John? John Ledyard: “I was aware of Dolbear, but did not know him personally.”
- 78.
Friedman, James W. 1967. “An Experimental Study of Cooperative Duopoly.” Econometrica, 35(3/4), 379–97.
- 79.
Smith stayed at Purdue from 1955 until 1967 with a hiatus at Stanford during the academic year 1961/2.
- 80.
Charlie Holt studied at Carnegie Mellon from 1970 until 1977. During 1971–1973 he was stationed in Japan as a Navy Reserve.
- 81.
Cyert, Richard Michael; Maurice H. DeGroot and Charles A. Holt. 1979. “Capital Allocation within a Firm.” Syst. Res. Behavioral Science, 24(5), 287–95, ____. 1978. “Sequential Investment Decisions with Bayesian Learning.” Management Science, 24(7), 712–18.
- 82.
Jorgenson, Dale W. and Calvin D. Siebert. 1968. “A Comparison of Alternative Theories of Corporate Investment Behavior.” The American Economic Review, 58(4), 681–712.
- 83.
From the eleven joint publications in the period 1977 to 1988 (eight until 1983) only two were in psychology journals excluding two in the Journal of Conflict Resolution, which, according to Al Roth, “was in the late 1970s and early 1980s an interdisciplinary journal with political science flavor.”
Murnighan, J. Keith and Alvin E. Roth. 1980. “Effects of Group Size and Communication Availability on Coalition Bargaining in a Veto Game.” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 39(1), 92–103, Roth, Alvin E. and J. Keith Murnighan. 1978. “Equilibrium Behavior and Repeated Play of the Prisoner's Dilemma Games.” Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 17(2), 189–98.
- 84.
Murnighan and Roth published together only one paper in Econometrica, which was submitted in May 1981 and revisions were received in November 1981. ____. 1982. “The Role of Information in Bargaining: An Experimental Study.” Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 50(5).
- 85.
Gesellschaft für experimentelle Wirtschaftsforschung [Society for Experimental Economics Research] was founded by Heinz Sauermann in 1977.
- 86.
Allais, M. 1953. “Le Comportement De L'homme Rationnel Devant Le Risque: Critique Des Postulats Et Axiomes De L'ecole Americaine.” Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 21(4), 503–46.
- 87.
Krech, David; Richard S. Crutchfield and Egerton L. Ballachey. 1962. Individual in Society: A Textbook of Social Psychology. Tokyo [etc.]: McGraw-Hill Kogokusha.
- 88.
Cartwright, Dorwin and Alvin Frederick Zander. 1960. Group Dynamics: Research and Theory. Evanston, Ill: Row, Peterson. 2nd edition appared in 1960 and the last in 1968.
- 89.
Lewin proposed in his field theory that human behavior is a function of both the person and the environment.
- 90.
A slightly adjusted version of 1981 Ph.D.-thesis appeared van Winden, Frans. 1983. On the Interaction between State and Private Sector : A Study in Political Economics. Amsterdam; New York: North-Holland Pub. Co. ; Sole distributors for the U.S.A. and Canada, Elsevier Science Pub. Co.
- 91.
Van Winden visited Caltech from July until September 1986.
- 92.
Four volumes titled Game Equilibrium Models were published in 1991 that cover a variety of topics in economics, biology, sociology, psychology, political science, and behavioral sciences. Most of the contributions were non-experimental, mostly theoretical (traditional non-cooperative game theory). Among the contributors are also researchers who have conducted experimental research such Wulf Albers, Ron Harstad, James Walker, Roy Gardner, and Elinor Ostrom. Selten, Reinhard. 1991. Game Equilibrium Models. Berlin; New York: Springer Verlag.
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Svorenčík, A., Maas, H. (2016). The Very Beginnings. In: Svorenčík, A., Maas, H. (eds) The Making of Experimental Economics. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-20952-4_2
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