Demographic Limits to Sustainable Development of Mountain Regions in Serbia

Abstract

Intense industrialization of Serbia during the period of socialist Yugoslavia induced voluminous internal migration, mainly from villages to the fast-growing industrial centers, which resulted in a disturbed sex composition of the current population in the prime reproductive ages (20–39 years) at the settlement level of the country. As a result, both agrarian zones of young men surplus and urban “oases” of young women surplus jointly reinforce the processes of demographic aging and poverty in Serbia, despite the goals of policy makers presented through crucial national strategies regarding sustainable development of the country. The rural zones with a deficit of young women, which are predominantly border and mountain regions, are the first to experience the negative effects of the prevailing demographic trend in the future. Some of the findings in this chapter point to the typical positive feedback loop “population–poverty” as the intrinsic mechanism of persistent “highlands to lowlands” migration. Finally, the probabilistic population projection of mountain regions in Serbia indicates decreasing and aging of its population as an inevitable and dominant demographic process in the next few decades. These tendencies could be substantial obstacles to efforts in achieving sustainable development of Serbia’s mountain regions.