Abstract
Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) and their predictions are widely used by the enterprises for informed decision making. Nevertheless, a very important factor, which is generally overlooked, is that the top level strategic KPIs are actually driven by the operational level business processes. These two domains are, however, mostly segregated and analysed in silos with different Business Intelligence solutions. In this paper, we are proposing an approach for advanced Business Simulations, which converges the two domains by utilising process execution&business data, and concepts from Business Dynamics (BD) and Business Ontologies, to promote better system understanding and detailed KPI predictions. Our approach incorporates the automated creation of Causal Loop Diagrams, thus empowering the analyst to critically examine the complex dependencies hidden in the massive amounts of available enterprise data. We have further evaluated our proposed approach in the context of a retail use-case that involved verification of the automatically generated causal models by a domain expert.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Ann, R., Chase, G., Omar, R., Taylor, J., von Rosing, M.: Applying Real-World BPM in an SAP Environment. Galileo Press, Bonn (2011)
Del-RÃo-Ortega, A., Resinas, M., Ruiz-Cortés, A.: Defining process performance indicators: an ontological approach. In: Meersman, R., Dillon, T.S., Herrero, P. (eds.) OTM 2010. LNCS, vol. 6426, pp. 555–572. Springer, Heidelberg (2010)
Redlich, D., Gilani, W.: Event-driven process-centric performance prediction via simulation. In: Daniel, F., Barkaoui, K., Dustdar, S. (eds.) BPM Workshops 2011, Part I. LNBIP, vol. 99, pp. 473–478. Springer, Heidelberg (2012)
Fritzsche, M., Picht, M., Gilani, W., Spence, I., Brown, J., Kilpatrick, P.: Extending BPM environments of your choice with performance related decision support. In: Dayal, U., Eder, J., Koehler, J., Reijers, H.A. (eds.) BPM 2009. LNCS, vol. 5701, pp. 97–112. Springer, Heidelberg (2009)
Heilig, B., Möller, M.: Business Process Management mit SAP NetWeaver BPM, 1st edn. Galileo Press Gmbh, Bonn (2014)
Ko, R.K.L., Lee, S.S.G., Lee, E.W.: Business process management (BPM) standards: a survey. Bus. Process Manag. J. 15, 744–791 (2009)
Woods, D., Word, J.: SAP Netweaver for Dummies. Wiley, Hoboken (2004)
Intalio: BPMS designer (2013). http://www.intalio.com/products/bpms/overview/
Van Der Aalst, W.: Process Mining - Discovery Conformance and Enhancement of Business Processes. Springer, Heidelberg (2011)
Robinson, S.: Simulation - The Practice of Model Development and Use, 1st edn. Wiley, Chichester (2004)
Porzucek, T., Kluth, S., Fritzsche, M., Redlich, D.: Combination of a discrete event simulation and an analytical performance analysis through model-transformations. In: IEEE ECBS, pp. 183–192 (2010)
Brockwell, P.J., Davis, R.A.: Time Series: Theory and Methods, 2nd edn. Springer, Heidelberg (2006)
Howson, C., Newbould, E.: SAP BusinessObjects BI 4.0 The Complete Reference 3/E, 3rd edn. McGraw-Hill Osborne, New york (2012)
Hecking, M., Schroder, C.: Current Implementation Level of Business Process Management in Corporate Practice: A Quantitative Analysis. GRIN Verlag, Munich (2013)
SoftwareAG: Software AG: webMethods (2014). http://www.softwareag.com/corporate/products/wm/bpm/overview/default.asp. Accessed April 2014
Han, K.H., Kang, J.G., Song, M.: Two-stage process analysis using the process-based performance measurement framework and business process simulation. Expert Syst. Appl. 36(3 Part 2), 7080–7086 (2009)
Uschold, M., King, M., Moralee, S., Zorgios, Y.: The Enterprise Ontology. Knowl Eng Rev 13, 31–89 (1998)
Filipowska, A., Hepp, M., Kaczmarek, M., Markovic, I.: Organisational ontology framework for semantic business process management. In: Abramowicz, W. (ed.) Business Information Systems. LNBIP, vol. 21, pp. 1–12. Springer, Heidelberg (2009)
Drobek, M., Gilani, W., Redlich, D., Molka, T., Soban, D.: On advanced business simulations - converging operational and strategic levels. In: 4th International Symposium on Business Modeling and Software Design, ScitePress, Luxembourg (2014)
Forrester, J.W.: Industrial Dynamics. MIT Press, Cambridge (1961). Currently available from Pegasus Communications; Waltham
Sterman, J.D.: Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. McGraw-Hill, New York (2000)
Burns, J.R.: Converting signed digraphs to Forrester schematics and converting Forrester schematics to Differential equations. IEEE Trans. Syst. Man Cybern. B Cybern. 10, 695–707 (1977)
Ford, A.: Modeling the Environment: An Introduction to System Dynamics Models of Environmental Systems. Island Press, Washington (1999)
Binder, T., Vox, A., Belyazid, S., Haraldsson, H.V., Svensson, M.: Developing System Dynamics models from Causal Loop Diagrams. Technical report, University of Luebeck, Germany, Lund University, Sweden (2004)
Drobek, M., Gilani, W., Soban, D.: Parameter estimation and equation formulation in Business Dynamics. In: 3rd International Symposium on Business Modeling and Software Design. ScitePress, Noordwijkerhout (2013)
Richmond, B., isee systems (Firm): An Introduction to Systems Thinking: STELLA Software (2008)
Forrester, J.W.: System Dynamics and the Lessons of 35 Years, pp. 1–35 (1991)
Ford, D.N., Sterman, J.D.: Expert knowledge elicitation to improve formal and mental models. Sys. Dyn. Rev. 14(4), 309–340 (1998)
Drobek, M., Gilani, W., Soban, D.: A data driven and tool supported CLD creation approach. In: The 32nd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Delft, pp. 1–20 (2014)
Granger, C.W.J.: Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica 37(3), 424–438 (1969)
Eichler, M.: Granger causality and path diagrams for multivariate time series. J. Econometrics 137(2), 334–353 (2007)
Fisher, F.M.: Tests of equality between sets of coefficients in two linear regressions: an expository note. Econometrica: J. Econometric Soc. 28, 361–366 (1970)
Sims, C.: Macroeconomics and reality. Econometrica 48, 1–48 (1980)
Drobek, M., Gilani, W., Molka, T., Soban, D.: Automated equation formulation for causal loop diagrams. In: 18th International Conference on Business Information Systems (BIS), Poznan (2015)
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2015 Springer International Publishing Switzerland
About this paper
Cite this paper
Drobek, M., Gilani, W., Redlich, D., Molka, T., Soban, D. (2015). Advanced Business Simulations. In: Shishkov, B. (eds) Business Modeling and Software Design. BMSD 2014. Lecture Notes in Business Information Processing, vol 220. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-20052-1_7
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-20052-1_7
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-20051-4
Online ISBN: 978-3-319-20052-1
eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)