Modelling and Forecasting Daily Electricity Load via Curve Linear Regression

  • Haeran ChoEmail author
  • Yannig Goude
  • Xavier Brossat
  • Qiwei Yao
Conference paper
Part of the Lecture Notes in Statistics book series (LNS, volume 217)


In this paper, we discuss the problem of short-term electricity load forecasting by regarding electricity load on each day as a curve. The dependence between successive daily loads and other relevant factors such as temperature, is modelled via curve linear regression where both the response and the regressor are functional (curves). The key ingredient of the proposed method is the dimension reduction based on the singular value decomposition in a Hilbert space, which reduces the curve linear regression problem to several ordinary (i.e. scalar) linear regression problems. This method has previously been adopted in the hybrid approach proposed by Cho et al. (J Am Stat Assoc 108:7–21, 2013) for the same purpose, where the curve linear regression modelling was applied to the data after the trend and the seasonality were removed by a generalised additive model fitted at the weekly level. We show that classifying the successive daily loads prior to curve linear regression removes the necessity of such a two-stage approach as well as resulting in reducing the forecasting error by a great margin. The proposed methodology is illustrated using the electricity load dataset collected between 2007 and mid-2012, on which it is compared to the hybrid approach and other available competitors. Finally, various ways for improving the forecasting performance of the curve linear regression technique are discussed.


Singular Value Decomposition Electricity Consumption Generalise Additive Model Electricity Load Daily Load 
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Copyright information

© Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2015

Authors and Affiliations

  • Haeran Cho
    • 1
    Email author
  • Yannig Goude
    • 2
  • Xavier Brossat
    • 2
  • Qiwei Yao
    • 3
    • 4
  1. 1.School of MathematicsUniversity of BristolBristolUK
  2. 2.Électricité de FranceParisFrance
  3. 3.Department of StatisticsLondon School of EconomicsLondonUK
  4. 4.Guanghua School of ManagementPeking UniversityBeijingChina

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