Abstract
In the 1980s, 1990s, and even 2000s, many economists failed to detect behind the formal indicators the profound changes in the Third World that prepared for fundamental changes and the onset of the Great Convergence. In the meantime, as one can see from the figures in this chapter, the symptoms of the movement from the trend of the Great Divergence toward the Great Convergence already became apparent in the 1960s and 1970s.
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Notes
- 1.
As we will see below in Appendix B, the long-term curve of the gap between the First and Third World as regards per capita GDP resembles the curve of the world population growth rate dynamics even more.
- 2.
It appears necessary to stress that we will obtain such results only when we apply Maddison’s coefficients for the GDP conversion at purchasing power parity. As we will see below, when using other coefficients we tend to get significantly different results (especially, as regards the period between 1968 and 1998).
- 3.
And—as we will see below—we will get a similar result in this case even if use any other GDP conversion coefficients.
- 4.
Note that here we quite consciously apply a simplified dual World System structuration scheme that only singles out the World System core and periphery and ignores the subdivision of the latter into the periphery per se and semiperiphery.
- 5.
However, this may happen a few years later (for reasons see Statistical addendum to this chapter).
- 6.
In the same time the Rest lagged far behind the West as regards its economic modernization (and—hence—as regards the labor productivity growth).
- 7.
- 8.
The most wide-spread way to operationalize such a comparison looked as follows—the idea was to identify the correlation between the per capita GDP levels in various countries of the world in 1950/1960, on the one hand, and the GDP per capita growth rates between 1950/1960 and 1990, on the other. Quite logically, within such an operationalization scheme, a significant negative correlation was rather soundly interpreted as evidence for the presence of global convergence, a significant positive correlation was as soundly interpreted as evidence for the presence of global divergence, whereas an insignificant correlation was interpreted as evidence for the absence of both global convergence and global divergence.
- 9.
We think, that this fiasco of the Western economic science was connected with the fact that Western economists tried to apply basically linear models to the analysis of a highly nonlinear process.
- 10.
This Addendum has been prepared on the basis of our article “On the structure of the present-day convergence” (Korotayev and Zinkina 2014).
- 11.
Notably, the change from divergence to convergence trend first occurred in the middle-income countries, and then (10 years later) in the low-income ones.
- 12.
As defined by Aiyar et al., the “middle-income trap” is “the phenomenon of hitherto rapidly growing economies stagnating at middle-income levels and failing to graduate into the ranks of high-income countries” (Aiyar et al. 2013: 3). For a detailed description of the factors and mechanisms of the middle-income trap see, e.g., Kharas and Kohli 2011.
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Grinin, L., Korotayev, A. (2015). Great Convergence and the Rise of the Rest. In: Great Divergence and Great Convergence. International Perspectives on Social Policy, Administration, and Practice. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-17780-9_3
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