Abstract
In this chapter the authors first of all give a sketch of the whole process of the Great Divergence and its transformation into the Great Convergence. This is followed by a detailed analysis of those factors that allowed the West to overtake the East in the Modern Period, as well as those factors that put in motion the process of the Great Divergence. This necessitates the consideration of certain aspects of the development of the East and the West from the mid-fifteenth century (and even earlier in some respects) till the late twentieth century. Among the most important provisions that the authors develop in this chapter is the idea that, starting with the early second millennium BC, one can distinguish the potential that later enabled Europe to overtake the East. However, for a long time Europe lagged far behind the East, and it managed to develop its potential advantages only in the Early Modern Period. The chapter analyzes in detail the reasons that enabled Europe to achieve this. Another important idea in this chapter is that the authors believe it is much more reasonable to consider the Industrial Revolution as a rather long-term process that started in the late fifteenth century and continued till the mid-nineteenth century. This process went through several phases, and, in our understanding, the period between the last third of the eighteenth and the first third of the nineteenth century (this period is traditionally denoted as the period of the “Industrial Revolution”) was only the final phase of the Industrial Revolution, at which an irreversible transition to machine technology and at the same time to a new kind of energy occurred. But it was the most prominent and visible phase of the industrial revolution. The authors do not consider the European nineteenth-century breakthrough as a really unexpected development, they rather view it as a fairly long process that continued from the fifteenth to the nineteenth century, during which in some respects (e.g. military-technical and scientific) Europe was already ahead of the advanced countries of Asia, whereas in others (such as the level of craftsmanship) it still lagged behind. But in general, we denote this period as “catching up divergence”. All of the above said has allowed the authors to express their own opinion on the reasons for the Britain leadership in that period. Although Britain was clearly the leader at that point, but in that period one also observes a number of important processes that can be identified as pan-European (including the development of military technology, trade, science, pan-European commercial and industrial crises of the second half of the eighteenth century, and the beginning of the demographic transition). From this perspective, the authors clearly trace in the Industrial Revolution the result of the collective achievements of different European societies.
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Notes
- 1.
With some exceptions that will be mentioned specially below.
- 2.
Note that in his turn Goldstone based himself on the survey produced by Li and Soylu (2004).
- 3.
“There are no precise data on the scale of the decline between the period before 1348 and the population nadir reached during the first half of the fifteenth century, but a loss of 30–40 % is corroborated by local studies in Piedmont and Tuscany, and in France, Spain, England, and Germany” (Livi-Bacci 2012: 44).
- 4.
- 5.
Generally, by the end of the Middle Ages the West was superior to the East only in certain military, navigation and a few other technologies (e.g., Parker 1997), whereas in most respects the East was more developed than the West.
- 6.
However, in the late seventeenth in France, under the pressure of manufacturers and sellers of silk and woolen cloth, Colbert imposed a total ban on production of cotton cloth as it rivaled strongly the former; in England (for the same reason) it was prohibited partially (Mantoux 1929; Чичеров 1965; Allen 2009; Аллен 2014). It is important, that in Europe the textile industry needed raw materials, while for silk and porcelain production there was a complete circle (from raw stuff to finish goods). Cotton seems to be the only popular article supplied by Asia in that time.
- 7.
- 8.
In this respect, the period from 1870 to 1990 seems to be to a certain extent a reflection of the sixteenth and eighteenth centuries. In the sixteenth-eighteenth centuries, one could observe a powerful hidden divergence between the West and the East which showed up after the 1800s. The period between 1870 and 1990 can be characterized as a period of hidden convergence which in the form of vector of the converging per capita GDP production started to show up only after the late 1980s.
- 9.
In fact, the abovementioned statement of Goldstone in its full form looks as follows: “the only way forward is to abandon both the notion of Europe as having an inherent, durable advantage or superiority in some respect that goes back thousands of years, and the notion that there was no essential difference between Europe and other major civilizations until relatively late, around 1800” (Goldstone 2013: 59).
- 10.
One of such reasons was a prohibition of slavery in Western Europe while there were comparable many slaves in eastern countries especially in the Near and Middle East.
- 11.
- 12.
For example, “in England c. 1750, more than half the population engaged in wage labor either full-time or part time; farmers and freeholders in agriculture were only about a quarter of households. In Japan and China… a much smaller proportion of the population were laborers” (Goldstone 2007: 213).
- 13.
In their turn, Huang’s calculations are based on Buck’s (1937: 314) data.
- 14.
- 15.
In the East, especially in China, Mesopotamia, or Egypt sometimes the state could invest large amounts of money in the land amelioration, but since the state itself developed in a cyclic manner, the process of such improvements was not sustained and sometimes the irrigation amelioration declined completely. In the West, starting from the Modern Age, the investments in land or agricultural technology generally increased.
- 16.
It is quite natural that there was an abundant evidence of the direct impact of the prohibitions that were spread in the seventeenth-century France during Colbert’s times (see Rayner 1964: 42–44; Малов 1994: 142–150) as well as in other parts of Europe in general. We also do not consider here the epoch of catching modernization in Europe and Japan in the second half of the nineteenth century, when industrialization (including the construction of railways and telegraph) was to a large extent directed and financed by the state (see, e.g., Supple 1976: 329–330, 340–351).
- 17.
In the Southern Netherlands, half the population or even more lived in towns (Bruges, Ghent, and Antwerp), the share of the urban population was still larger in Northern Italy in the Po valley where Venice, Milan, and Genoa were situated (Blockmans 1989: 734). Such a high share of the urban population could be supported only by profitable trade. That is why its decline in the Italian Republics (as well as in the Southern Netherlands as a result of the destruction of Antwerp (the Spanish Fury) led to their transformation and stunted development.
- 18.
With respect to the early (gunpowder) military revolution, one should note that the matter was rather ambiguous. The Ottoman Empire was among leaders in this sphere and produced a significant impact on its neighboring countries, both European and Eastern (Iran and India). But unlike Europe, the further development of military revolution failed there. Moreover, starting from the late eighteenth century first Turkey and later all other Oriental countries began to adopt the European achievements.
- 19.
Kuran (2011) denotes the period between the sixteenth and eighteenth centuries as “the Long Divergence”. But in our opinion, this definition fails to reflect the actual significance of that period.
- 20.
For example, in the first half of the eighteenth century, the ratio between goods and silver carried on the British vessels that traded with China (Port of Guangzhou) was 10–90 %, or at best 75–25 % (<Author-Query><!----></Author-Query>Симоновская and Юрьев 1974: 175; see also Чичеров 1965: 135. 139; Петров 1986: 171; Goldstone 2013).
- 21.
- 22.
Thus, having constructed a powerful and advanced navy in the fifteenth century, later China gave up developing it and the Chinese lost the skills of shipbuilding.
- 23.
Not to be mixed with his nephew, the famous British historian Arnold Joseph Toynbee (1889–1975).
- 24.
However, today assumption is that the term “industrial revolution” (la révolution industrielle) was introduced as early as in 1837 by the French economist Jerome-Adolphe Blanqui to describe the social and technological transformation that had occurred in Britain within the previous decades (Mokyr 1999: 4).
- 25.
For example, in the sixteenth century, the average tonnage of ships increased tenfold in comparison with the fifteenth century (Чистозвонов 1991: 15).
- 26.
Note also, that, according to Wrigley (1988), the industrial revolution is a transition from the organic economy (energy resource) to inorganic, from organic production to inorganic one (that is from the agrarian production with its usage of land, plants and animals to the usage of mineral resources). Wrigley implied steam energy, yet, generally speaking, water energy also refers to inorganic energy resources (as we will further show just this energy resource promoted the machinery phase of the industrial revolution in the USA). Thus, already from the fifteenth century, we observe an obvious transition to inorganic energy resources and during the subsequent centuries the distribution of these energy resources proceeded at impressive rates.
- 27.
A bit earlier he also notes that the industrial revolution extended over 100 years and represented a gradual evolutionary process (Clark 2007: 232, 239), although unfortunately, he does not denote any landmarks in this process.
- 28.
One can take the liberty to draw an analogу between the epoch of revolution and the period from the creation of the first samples of a new seminal invention in an inventor’s workshop to the creation of the first working production prototypes. And from this stage there can be a long way to the further large-scale implementation of the invention.
- 29.
However, we should note that during 300 years (from the sixteenth to the eighteenth century) the Western Europe demonstrated a close to contemporary type of economic growth in the foreign trade averaging to 1.06 % per year (O’Rourke et al. 2010), which provided a basis for a transition to such a type of economic growth.
- 30.
Nevertheless, one should make a distinction between “agricultural” mills, which grind grain, and “industrial” mills, which were devoted to what are now commonly thought of as industrial applications, such as fulling of cloth, forging iron, and sharpening tools (Lucas 2005), which were obviously less in number (Ibid.).
- 31.
It is widely assumed that the Lateen sail was actually adopted from the Arab navigators who used it in the Indian Ocean and brought to the Mediterranean in the ninth century (see, e.g., Шумовский 2010).
- 32.
Nevertheless, one should note that the non-farm sector of the world’s gross volume was primarily concentrated in Asia. According to Allen (2009), in 1750 the bulk of craft production was concentrated in China (33 % of global output) and the Indian subcontinent (25 %). This has two important implications: (1) The main amount of both general GDP and industrial GDP was concentrated mostly in Asian countries. (2) Therefore, as we have pointed out, the primary divergence was at the same time a catching up convergence.
- 33.
- 34.
This is often connected with the point that Medieval West Europe was very effectively shielded from the invasions of the external barbarians in general and the nomadic world in particular (e.g., Crone 1989: 150).
- 35.
This thesis is often ascribed to Max Weber. Note, however, that Max Weber himself opposed it very strongly: “… however, we have no intention whatever of maintaining such a foolish and doctrinaire thesis as that the spirit of capitalism… could have only arisen as the result of certain effect of the Reformation, or even that capitalism as an economic system is a creation of the Reformation” (Weber 1930 [1904]: 91). Hence, this thesis should be denoted as “pseudo-Weberian” rather than Weberian.
- 36.
Note that Jack Goldstone (2007) convincingly proved the irrelevance of this factor.
- 37.
However, later it involved the other European countries due the fast diffusion of innovations, the formation of the European market and maturing globalization.
- 38.
The first wave of this migration was caused by the ban of cotton fabric production in France, whereas the second wave was produced by the abolition of the Edict of Nantes.
- 39.
As has already been mentioned, the importation of such fabrics increased enormously. Hence, it is not surprising that the woolen and silk traders struggled to impose such restrictions, whereas the process of introduction and raising the import customs began already since 1660; however, the importation of the Indian fabrics continued to grow (Чичеров 1965: 141; Allen 2009), which necessitated the introduction of the total ban of those imports.
- 40.
Even in 1850 the total power of the hydraulic engines in the cotton industry was 11,000 hp or approximately 13 % of the total power of all the engines (Lilley 1966).
- 41.
Bishnupriya Gupta and Debin Ma arrive at rather similar conclusions: “Chinese real wages were far behind those in London or Amsterdam—only about 30–40 % of earning levels there in terms of purchasing power… Unskilled laborers in the major cities of China and Japan—poor as they were—had roughly the same standard of living as their counterparts in central and southern Europe for the larger part of the eighteenth century” (Gupta and Ma 2010: 272), whereas Mokyr notes that “high real wages may simply have reflected higher output per worker, not a cost disadvantage to labor utilization that was absent elsewhere” (Mokyr 2010: 270–271).
- 42.
- 43.
With the accession of the Tudor dynasty the patent system underwent a characteristic change. In place of the open letters for the furtherance of the national industry, we now find the Crown negotiating for the purpose of attracting skilled foreigners (for example, German armourers, Italian shipwrights and glass-makers, and French iron makers) (Hulme 1909). We also see that those monopolies were not without foreign precedents. Throughout Western Europe the new art of printing was being controlled and regulated by special licenses (Hulme 1909).
- 44.
- 45.
See, e.g., Zinkina and Korotayev (2014).
- 46.
The report quite adequately explained the exceptional success of the Americans in the production of machinery first of all by the acute shortage of workers in the country, the presence of a huge domestic market, high level of education and the widespread use of foreign experience (Болховитинов 1983: 215–216).
- 47.
It appears appropriate to mention here some quantitative data. The greatest scale of the railway construction in Europe was observed between 1850 and 1870. During that period, the European railway network grew from 14 thousand miles up to 65 thousand miles (Mosse 1974: 23). And in the decade between 1857 and 1866 the world’s total railway increased by 75,000 km. Between 1860 and 1887, the telegraph network in Europe grew from 126,000 to 652,000 km and worldwide its length approached 1.5 million km, including 200,000 km of underwater lines (Мендельсон 1959, т. 2: 194).
- 48.
Among the reasons one could mention a larger willingness to learn from the West than was found among the Chinese, as the Japanese traditionally borrowed much more from abroad, as was noted by the Japanese researchers (Ōkuma Shigenobu) already at the beginning of the twentieth century (Загорский 1991 : 68). Allen also points to a more creative use and adaptation of western technology to local conditions than in other modernizing countries in this period (Allen 2011 ).
- 49.
Why did the flow of European capitals and technologies to Canada or Australia lead to their successful modernization, and why did not it produce the same result in Brazil or India? In the nineteenth century, Canada, Australia, India, and Brazil were turned into an agrarian and raw material appendages of Western Europe and the United States. This, however, did not prevent Canada and Australia to join the club of developed countries, while Brazil and India as a result of the processes of the Great Divergence found themselves among the Third World countries. What is the explanation? We will try to answer this question below in Appendix B to this book.
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Grinin, L., Korotayev, A. (2015). Great Divergence and the Rise of the West. In: Great Divergence and Great Convergence. International Perspectives on Social Policy, Administration, and Practice. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-17780-9_2
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