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Rivers – Physical, Fluvial and Environmental Processes pp 255–277Cite as

Uncertainty Analysis in River Modelling

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Part of the book series: GeoPlanet: Earth and Planetary Sciences ((GEPS))

Abstract

Uncertainty analysis is an essential step in river modelling. Knowledge of the uncertainty is crucial for a meaningful interpretation of the model results. In this chapter we describe the whole process of an uncertainty analysis in four steps: identification, prioritization, quantification and propagation. In each step the rationale behind choosing a method is described and illustrated with an example of the design water level computation of the Dutch river Waal with a 2D hydrodynamic model. The sources of uncertainty related to the case study are identified and their (relative) importance is determined using expert opinions combined with a novel uncertainty identification method. Subsequently, the sources with the largest effect on the design water levels are individually quantified and propagated using Monte Carlo analysis to yield the quantified uncertainty in the design water levels. The uncertainty analysis provided information about the reliability of the model results and about further actions to possibly reduce the uncertainty and their benefits in terms of increased accuracy.

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Acknowledgments

This research was supported by the Technology Foundation STW, applied science division of the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO), and the technology program of the Ministry of Economic Affairs. We thank the Dutch Centre for Water Management for providing the WAQUA model to do the analysis. Furthermore, we thank all the co-authors: Freek Huthoff, Hanneke Van der Klis, Menno Straatsma and Suzanne Hulscher for their assistance during the research. The research in Sect. 11.6 was also supported by the Flood Control 2015 program (www.floodcontrol2015.com).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Twente Water Centre, University of Twente, Enschede, The Netherlands

    Jord J. Warmink & Martijn J. Booij

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  1. Jord J. Warmink
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Correspondence to Jord J. Warmink .

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. Insitute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, Poland

    Paweł Rowiński

  2. Department of Hydraulic Engineering and Geotechnics, Agricultural University of Cracow, Krakow, Poland

    Artur Radecki-Pawlik

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Warmink, J.J., Booij, M.J. (2015). Uncertainty Analysis in River Modelling. In: Rowiński, P., Radecki-Pawlik, A. (eds) Rivers – Physical, Fluvial and Environmental Processes. GeoPlanet: Earth and Planetary Sciences. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-17719-9_11

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