Abstract
In this chapter, we review existing prevalence estimates for autism spectrum disorders (ASDs) since 2000 and discuss methodological factors impacting the estimation of prevalence and the interpretation of changes in prevalence estimates over time. Possible explanations for an increase in the prevalence of ASD within and across populations are considered. Increases in ASD diagnostic rates cannot currently be attributed to a true increase in the incidence of ASD due to multiple confounding factors. It remains to be seen how changes to diagnostic criteria introduced in the DSM-5 will impact estimates of ASD prevalence going forward.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Notes
- 1.
Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is the modern term that replaces the former pervasive developmental delay (PDD).
References
Al-Farsi YM, Al-Sharbati MM, Al-Farsi OA, Al-Shafaee MS, Brooks DR, Waly MI (2011) Brief report: prevalence of autistic spectrum disorders in the Sultanate of Oman. J Autism Dev Disord 41(6):821–825. doi:10.1007/s10803-010-1094-8
American Psychiatric Association (1980) Diagnostic and statistical manual of mental disorders, 3rd ed. American Psychiatric Association, Washington, DC
American Psychiatric Association (1987) Diagnostic and statistical manual of mental disorders, (3rd ed, revision). American Psychiatric Association, Washington, DC
American Psychiatric Association (1994) Diagnostic and statistical manual of mental disorders, 4th ed. American Psychiatric Association, Washington, DC
American Psychiatric Association (2000). Diagnostic and statistical manual of mental disorders (4th ed, text revision). American Psychiatric Association, Washington, DC doi:10.1176/appi.books.9780890423349.
American Psychiatric Association (2013) Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 5th ed. American Psychiatric Publishing., Washington, DC
Baird G, Charman T, Baron-Cohen S, Cox A, Swettenham J, Wheelwright S, Drew A (2000) A screening instrument for autism at 18 months of age: a 6-year follow-up study. J Am Acad Child Adolesc Psychiatry 39(6):694–702. doi:10.1097/00004583-200006000-00007
Baird G, Simonoff E, Pickles A, Chandler S, Loucas T, Meldrum D, Charman T (2006) Prevalence of disorders of the autism spectrum in a population cohort of children in South Thames: the special needs and autism project (SNAP). Lancet 368(9531):210–215. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(06)69041-7
Brugha TS, McManus S, Bankart J, Scott F, Purdon S, Smith J et al (2011) Epidemiology of autism spectrum disorders in adults in the community in England. Arch Gen Psychiatry 68(5):459–465. doi:10.1001/archgenpsychiatry.2011.38
California Department of Developmental Services (2003) Autistic spectrum disorders: Changes in the California caseload-an update 1999 through 2002. Retrieved from http://www.dds.ca.gov/Autism/docs/AutismReport2003.pdf
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (2007a) Prevalence of autism spectrum disorders- autism and developmental disabilities monitoring network, six sites, United States, 2000. Morb Mortal Wkly Rep Surveillance Summaries, 56(1):1–11
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (2007b) Prevalence of autism spectrum disorders – autism and developmental disabilities monitoring network, 14 Sites, United States, 2002. Morb Mortal Wkly Rep Surveillance Summaries, 56(SS01):12–28
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (2009) Prevalence of autism spectrum disorders – autism and developmental disabilities monitoring network, United States, 2006. Morb Mortal Wkly Rep Surveillance Summaries, 58(SS10):1–20
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (2012) Prevalence of autism spectrum disorders- autism and developmental disabilities monitoring network, 14 sites, United States, 2008. Morb Mortal Wkly Rep Surveillance Summaries, 61(3):1–19
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (2014) Prevalence of autism spectrum disorders among children aged 8 years- autism and developmental disabilities monitoring network, 11 Sites, United States, 2010. Morb Mortal Wkly Rep Surveillance Summaries, 63(2):1–22
Chakrabarti S, Fombonne É (2001) Pervasive developmental disorders in preschool children. J Am Med Assoc 285(24):3093–3099. doi:10.1001/jama.285.24.3093
Chakrabarti S, Fombonne É (2005) Pervasive developmental disorders in preschool children: confirmation of high prevalence. Am J Psychiatry 162(6):1133–1141. doi:10.1176/appi.ajp.162.6.1133
Chien IC, Lin CH, Chou YJ, Chou P (2011) Prevalence and incidence of autism spectrum disorders among national health insurance enrollees in Taiwan from 1996 to 2005. J Child Neurol 26(7):830–834. doi:10.1177/0883073810393964
Croen LA, Grether JK, Hoogstrate J, Selvin S (2002) The changing prevalence of autism in California. J Autism Dev Disord 32(3):207–215
Croen LA, Najjar DV, Fireman B, Grether JK (2007) Maternal and paternal age and risk of autism spectrum disorders. Arch Pediatr Adolesc Med 161(4):334–340. doi:10.1001/archpedi.161.4.334
Davidovitch M, Hemo B, Manning-Courtney P, Fombonne É (2013) Prevalence and incidence of autism spectrum disorder in an Israeli population. J Autism Dev Disord 43(4):785–793. doi:10.1007/s10803-012-1611-z
Ellefsen A, Kampmann H, Billstedt E, Gillberg IC, Gillberg C (2007) Autism in the Faroe Islands: an epidemiological study. J Autism Dev Disord 37(3):437–444. doi:10.1007/s10803-006-0178-y
Elsabbagh M, Divan G, Koh Y-J, Kim YS, Kauchali S, MarcÃn C et al (2012) Global prevalence of autism and other pervasive developmental disorders. Autism Res 5(3):160–179. doi:10.1002/aur.239
Fombonne É (2001) Is there an epidemic of autism? Pediatrics 107(2):411–412
Fombonne É (2003a) Epidemiological surveys of autism and other pervasive developmental disorders: an update. J Autism Dev Disord 33(4):365–382
Fombonne É (2003b) The prevalence of autism. J Am Med Assoc 289(1):87–89. doi:10.1001/jama.289.1.87
Fombonne É (2005) Epidemiology of autistic disorder and other pervasive developmental disorders. J Clin Psychiatry 66(Suppl 10):3–8
Fombonne É (2007) Epidemiology. In Martin A, Volkmar F (eds) Lewisʼs child and adolescent psychiatry: a comprehensive textbook (4 ed). Philadelphia, Lippincott Williams & Wilkins, pp. 150–171
Fombonne É (2009a) Epidemiology of pervasive developmental disorders. Pediatr Res 65(6):591–598. doi:10.1203/PDR.0b013e31819e7203
Fombonne É (2009b) Commentary: on King and Bearman. Int J Epidemiol 38(5):1241–1242. doi:10.1093/ije/dyp259
Fombonne É, Du Mazaubrun C (1992) Prevalence of infantile autism in four French regions. Soc Psychiatry Psychiatr Epidemiol 27(4):203–210. doi:10.1016/S0890-8567(09)66566-7
Fombonne É, Du Mazaubrun C, Cans C, Grandjean H (1997) Autism and associated medical disorders in a French epidemiological survey. J Am Acad Child Adolesc Psychiatry 36(11):1561–1569. doi:10.1016/S0890-8567(09)66566-7
Fombonne É, Zakarian R, Bennett A, Meng L, McLean-Heywood D (2006) Pervasive developmental disorders in Montreal, Quebec, Canada: prevalence and links with immunizations. Pediatrics 118(1):e139–e150. doi:10.1542/peds.2005-2993
Fombonne É, Quirke S, Hagen A (2011) Epidemiology of pervasive developmental disorders. In Amaral DG, Dawson G, Geschwind DH (eds) Autism spectrum disorders. New York, Oxford University Press,(pp. 90–111)
French L, Bertone A, Hyde K, Fombonne É (2013) Epidemiology of autism spectrum disorders. In Buxbaum JD, Hof PR (eds) The neuroscience of autism spectrum disorders.Oxford, Oxford University Press, pp 3–24
Gillberg C (1984) Infantile autism and other childhood psychoses in a Swedish urban region. Epidemiological aspects. J Child Psychol Psychiatry 25(1):35–43. doi:10.1111/j.1469-7610.1984.tb01717.x
Gillberg C, Steffenburg S, Schaumann H (1991) Is autism more common now than 10 years ago? Br J Psychiatry 158:403–409.
Gurney JG, Fritz MS, Ness KK, Sievers P, Newschaffer CJ, Shapiro EG (2003) Analysis of prevalence trends of autism spectrum disorder in Minnesota. Arch Pediatrics Adolesc Med 157(7):622–627. doi:10.1001/archpedi.157.7.622
Hill AP, Zuckerman KE, Fombonne É (2014) Epidemiology of Autism Spectrum Disorders. In Handbook of Autism and Pervasive Developmental Disorders. Hoboken, Wiley, pp 57–96
Honda H, Shimizu Y, Misumi K, Niimi M, Ohashi Y (1996) Cumulative incidence and prevalence of childhood autism in children in Japan. Br J Psychiatry 169(2):228–235
Honda H, Shimizu Y, Rutter M (2005) No effect of MMR withdrawal on the incidence of autism: a total population study. J Child Psychol Psychiatry 46(6):572–579. doi:10.1111/j.1469-7610.2005.01425.x
Idring S, Rai D, Dal H, Dalman C, Sturm H, Zander E et al (2012) Autism spectrum disorders in the Stockholm Youth Cohort: design, prevalence and validity. PLoS ONE 7(7):e41280. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0041280
Kanner L (1943). Autistic disturbances of affective contact. Nerv child 2(3):217–250
Kawamura Y, Takahashi O, Ishii T (2008) Reevaluating the incidence of pervasive developmental disorders: impact of elevated rates of detection through implementation of an integrated system of screening in Toyota, Japan. Psychiatry Clin Neurosci 62(2):152–159. doi:10.1111/j.1440-1819.2008.01748.x
Kim YS, Leventhal BL, Koh Y-J, Fombonne É, Laska E, Lim E-C et al (2011) Prevalence of autism spectrum disorders in a total population sample. Am J Psychiatry 168(9):904–912. doi:10.1176/appi.ajp.2011.10101532
Kim YS, Fombonne É, Koh Y-J, Kim S-J, Cheon K-A, Leventhal BL (2014) A comparison of DSM-IV pervasive developmental disorder and DSM-5 autism spectrum disorder prevalence in an epidemiologic sample. J Am Acad Child Adolesc Psychiatry 53(5):500–508. doi:10.1016/j.jaac.2013.12.021
King M, Bearman P (2009) Diagnostic change and the increased prevalence of autism. Int J Epidemiol 38(5):1224–1234. doi:10.1093/ije/dyp261
Lauritsen MB, Pedersen CB, Mortensen PB (2004) The incidence and prevalence of pervasive developmental disorders: a Danish population-based study. Psychol Med 34(7):1339–1346.
Lazoff T, Zhong L, Piperni T, Fombonne É (2010) Prevalence of pervasive developmental disorders among children at the English montreal school board. Can J Psychiatry 55(11):715–720.
Leonard H, Glasson E, Nassar N, Whitehouse A, Bebbington A, Bourke J et al (2011) Autism and intellectual disability are differentially related to sociodemographic background at birth. PLoS ONE 6(3):e17875. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0017875
Lord C, Rutter M, Couteur A (1994) Autism diagnostic interview-revised: a revised version of a diagnostic interview for caregivers of individuals with possible pervasive developmental disorders. J Autism Dev Disord 24(5):659–685. doi:10.1007/BF02172145
Lord C, Risi S, Lambrecht L, Cook EH Jr, Leventhal BL, DiLavore PC et al (2000) The autism diagnostic observation schedule-generic: a standard measure of social and communication deficits associated with the spectrum of autism. J Autism Dev Disord 30(3):205–223. doi:10.1023/A:1005592401947
Lotter V (1966) Epidemiology of autistic conditions in young children. Soc Psychiatry 1(3):124–135. doi:10.1007/bf00584048
Lotter V (1967) Epidemiology of autistic conditions in young children. Soc Psychiatry 1(4):163–173. doi:10.1007/BF00578950
Maenner MJ, Durkin MS (2010) Trends in the prevalence of autism on the basis of special education data. Pediatrics 126(5):e1018–e1025. doi:10.1542/peds.2010-1023
Maenner MJ, Rice CE, Arneson CL, Cunniff C, Schieve LA, Carpenter LA et al (2014) Potential impact of DSM-5 criteria on autism spectrum disorder prevalence estimates. JAMA Psychiatry 71(3):292–300. doi:10.1001/jamapsychiatry.2013.3893
Nassar N, Dixon G, Bourke J, Bower C, Glasson E, de Klerk N, Leonard H (2009) Autism spectrum disorders in young children: effect of changes in diagnostic practices. Int J Epidemiol 38(5):1245–1254. doi:10.1093/ije/dyp260
Nicholas JS, Charles JM, Carpenter LA, King LB, Jenner W, Spratt EG (2008) Prevalence and characteristics of children with autism-spectrum disorders. Ann Epidemiol 18(2):130–136. doi:10.1016/j.annepidem.2007.10.013
Nicholas JS, Carpenter LA, King LB, Jenner W, Charles JM (2009) Autism spectrum disorders in preschool-aged children: prevalence and comparison to a school-aged population. Ann Epidemiol 19(11):808–814. doi:10.1016/j.annepidem.2009.04.005
Nygren G, Cederlund M, Sandberg E, Gillstedt F, Arvidsson T, Carina Gillberg I et al (2012) The prevalence of autism spectrum disorders in toddlers: a population study of 2-year-old Swedish children. J Autism Dev Disord 42(7):1491–1497. doi:10.1007/s10803-011-1391-x
Ouellette-Kuntz H, Coo H, Yu CT, Chudley AE, Noonan A, Breitenbach M et al (2006) Prevalence of pervasive developmental disorders in two Canadian providences. J Policy Pract Intellect Disabil 3(3):164–172
Parner ET, Thorsen P, Dixon G, de Klerk N, Leonard H, Nassar N et al (2011) A comparison of autism prevalence trends in Denmark and Western Australia. J Autism Dev Disord 41(12):1601–1608. doi:10.1007/s10803-011-1186-0
Parner ET, Baron-Cohen S, Lauritsen MB, Jørgensen M, Schieve LA, Yeargin-Allsopp M, Obel C (2012) Parental age and autism spectrum disorders. Ann Epidemiol 22(3):143–150. doi:10.1016/j.annepidem.2011.12.006
Pinborough-Zimmerman J, Bakian AV, Fombonne É, Bilder D, Taylor J, McMahon WM (2012) Changes in the administrative prevalence of autism spectrum disorders: contribution of special education and health from 2002-2008. J Autism Dev Disord 42(4):521–530. doi:10.1007/s10803-011-1265-2
Posserud M, Lundervold AJ, Lie SA, Gillberg C (2010) The prevalence of autism spectrum disorders: impact of diagnostic instrument and non-response bias. Soc Psychiatry Psychiatr Epidemiol 45(3):319–327. doi:10.1007/s00127-009-0087-4
Rice CE, Baio J, Van Naarden Braun K, Doernberg N, Meaney FJ, Kirby RS, ADDM Network (2007) A public health collaboration for the surveillance of autism spectrum disorders. Paediatr Perinat Epidemiol 21(2):179–190. doi:10.1111/j.1365-3016.2007.00801.x
Rice C, Nicholas J, Baio J, Pettygrove S, Lee L-C, Van Naarden Braun K et al (2010) Changes in autism spectrum disorder prevalence in 4 areas of the United States. Disabil Health J 3(3):186–201. doi:10.1016/j.dhjo.2009.10.008
Rutter M (1970) Autistic children: infancy to adulthood. Semin Psychiatry 2(4):435–450
Saemundsen E, Magnusson P, Georgsdóttir I, Egilsson E, Rafnsson V (2013) Prevalence of autism spectrum disorders in an Icelandic birth cohort. BMJ Open 3(6). doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2013-002748
Samadi SA, Mahmoodizadeh A, McConkey R (2011) A national study of the prevalence of autism among five-year-old children in Iran. Autism 16(1):5–14. doi:10.1177/1362361311407091
Shattuck PT (2006) The contribution of diagnostic substitution to the growing administrative prevalence of autism in US special education. Pediatrics 117(4):1028–1037. doi:10.1542/peds.2005-1516
Taylor B, Miller E, Farrington CP, Petropoulos MC, Favot-Mayaud I, Li J, Waight PA (1999) Autism and measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine: no epidemiological evidence for a causal association. Lancet 353(9169):2026–2029.
Wazana A, Bresnahan M, Kline J (2007) The autism epidemic: fact or artifact? J Am Acad Child Adolesc Psychiatry 46(6):721–730
Williams JG, Higgins JPT, Brayne CEG (2006) Systematic review of prevalence studies of autism spectrum disorders. Arch Dis Child 91(1):8–15. doi:10.1136/adc.2004.062083
Windham GC, Anderson MC, Croen LA, Smith KS, Collins J, Grether JK (2011) Birth prevalence of autism spectrum disorders in the San Francisco Bay area by demographic and ascertainment source characteristics. J Autism Dev Disord 41(10):1362–1372. doi:10.1007/s10803-010-1160-2
World Health Organization (1977) International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Ninth Revision. World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
World Health Organization (1992) International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision. World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
Zahorodny W, Shenouda J, Howell S, Rosato NS, Peng B, Mehta U (2014) Increasing autism prevalence in metropolitan New Jersey. Autism 18(2):117–126. doi:10.1177/1362361312463977
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2015 Springer International Publishing Switzerland
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Presmanes Hill, A., Zuckerman, K., Fombonne, E. (2015). Epidemiology of Autism Spectrum Disorders. In: Robinson-Agramonte, M. (eds) Translational Approaches to Autism Spectrum Disorder. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-16321-5_2
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-16321-5_2
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-16320-8
Online ISBN: 978-3-319-16321-5
eBook Packages: Biomedical and Life SciencesBiomedical and Life Sciences (R0)