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Mathematics of Energy and Climate Change: From the Solar Radiation to the Impacts of Regional Projections

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Mathematics of Energy and Climate Change

Part of the book series: CIM Series in Mathematical Sciences ((CIMSMS,volume 2))

Abstract

This chapter focuses on the natural and anthropogenic drivers of climate change and on the assessment of potential impacts of regional projections for different scenarios of future climate. Internal and external forcing factors of climate change are associated to changes in the most important processes of energy transfer with influence on the energy balance of the climate system. The role of the solar activity, regular variations in the orbital parameters of the Earth and the radiative forcing which comprises the changes in the chemical composition of the atmosphere and the characteristics of the radiative processes that occur in the atmosphere and on the surface of the Earth will be discussed. Recent evidences of climate change and the general characteristics of the climate models used in climate projection will be presented. The chapter ends with results of some case studies of potential impacts of regional climate change projections in Portugal, namely in forest fire regime, extreme precipitation intensity and in the design of storm water drainage infrastructures.

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Abbreviations

20C3M:

Twentieth century model simulations

AOGCMs:

Atmosphere–Ocean General Circulation Models

BA:

Burnt area

BAM:

Burned Area Model

BUI:

Buildup Index

CFFBPS:

Canadian Forest Fire Behaviour Prediction System

CFFDRS:

Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System

CFFWIS:

Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System

COSMO-CLM:

COnsortium for Small-scale MOdelling and Climate Limited- area Modelling Community

DMC:

Duff Moisture Code

DC:

Drought Code

DSR:

Daily Severity Rating

ECMWF:

European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

FFMC:

Fine Fuel Moisture Code

FWI:

Fire Weather Index

GCM:

General Circulation Model

IDF:

Intensity Duration Frequency Curve

IPCC:

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

IPMA:

Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera

ISI:

Initial Spread Index

LWR:

Long wave radiation

MIROC:

Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate

OLR:

Outgoing Long wave radiation

PRFD:

Portuguese Rural Fire Database

RCM:

Regional Climate Model

SWR:

Shortwave radiation

TOA:

Top of the Atmosphere

UNFCCC:

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

WMO:

World Meteorological Organization

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Acknowledgements

This was a personal presentation that included results obtained in studies performed in collaboration with other colleagues and, for this reason, the author is grateful to Teresa Calado, Carlos C. DaCamara, and Tomás Calheiros coauthors of [63] as well as Luís Sanches Fernandes, Eduarda Macário, Sónia Gaspar e Joaquim Pinto co-authors of [64]. The author is also thankful to the IPCC (http://www.ipcc.ch/index.htm), the Global Warming Art (http://www.globalwarmingart.com/) and Croatian-English Chemistry Dictionary & Glossary (http://glossary.periodni.com/dictionary.php) for making available and allows the use some of the presented images.

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  1. CITAB, Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Quinta de Prados, 5000-801, Vila Real, Portugal

    Mário Gonzalez Pereira

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  1. IHES Le Bois-Marie, Bures-sur-Yvette, France

    Jean-Pierre Bourguignon

  2. Department of Mathematics, ETH Zürich; Seminar für Angewandte Mathematik, Zürich, Switzerland

    Rolf Jeltsch

  3. Department of Mathematics, University of Porto; Faculty of Sciences, Porto, Portugal

    Alberto Adrego Pinto

  4. Instituto de Matemática Pura e Aplicada, IMPA, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

    Marcelo Viana

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Pereira, M.G. (2015). Mathematics of Energy and Climate Change: From the Solar Radiation to the Impacts of Regional Projections. In: Bourguignon, JP., Jeltsch, R., Pinto, A., Viana, M. (eds) Mathematics of Energy and Climate Change. CIM Series in Mathematical Sciences, vol 2. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-16121-1_12

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