Towards Destination Stewardship: Forecasting Financial Performance of Responsible Tourism on a Selected Croatian Destination

Abstract

Tourism is a multifaceted industry with high economic significance. Its multiplier effects show wide range of sectors that benefit from tourism. Whilst touting economic benefits of tourism, one has to be cautious because tourism activities involve economic costs as well. Additional costs can occur if planning, development and operations in tourism are not properly managed. Sustainable tourism lies at the core of destination stewardship. Destination managers need to be able to forecast economic, environmental and social trends affecting tourism. Thus, destination planning is crucial in balancing developments of tourism and controlling its growth. In this paper authors test various possible tourism scenarios on the total revenue generated from tourism for a 7-year projection period. Every scenario is based on destination planning. The case study destination used for scenario modelling was Labin-Rabac. The forecasts are based on three broad types of drivers: season extension outside the traditional July and August months, growth of accommodation capacity (number of bed places) and growth in the average tourists’ expenditure. The methodology used for scenario analysis is: historical method, deductive method, analysis (particularly horizontal analysis of the income statement which provided information about tendencies and change dynamics on its positions), synthesis, and mathematical methods.